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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 19:08:22 GMT
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Post by jonksy on May 26, 2024 19:14:34 GMT
Well labour seem the ones who are not picking up the majority of tory leavers...I guess we will have to wait until june the 5th and the final analysis will still linger on for months after the GE |
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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 19:18:33 GMT
Well labour seem the ones who are not picking up the majority of tory leavers...I guess we will have to wait intil june the 5th and the final analsis will still linger on for months after the GE Both Labour and Reform are picking up Tory 2019 voters. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_transition2024feb.html |
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2024 19:22:43 GMT
It is too early to say. A lot can change in six weeks, there always tend to be gaffes left, right and centre, unforeseen events can change everything, and none of us know what backroom deals or plots might be underway as we speak. So whilst a Labour majority looks highly likely right now as well as a very poor Tory performance, I am not going to count my chickens before they are hatched. So lets see what transpires between now and 4th July and see what happens when the results start to come in. Because whatever happens then we are all certain to have much to talk about. |
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Post by jonksy on May 26, 2024 20:14:22 GMT
Well labour seem the ones who are not picking up the majority of tory leavers...I guess we will have to wait intil june the 5th and the final analsis will still linger on for months after the GE Both Labour and Reform are picking up Tory 2019 voters. www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_transition2024feb.htmlBut labour are not the first pick of those defecting from the tories....It seems reform are the major beneficiaries. But in the next 6 weeks anything can happen to throw a wobbler in the ring... |
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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 20:23:03 GMT
But labour are not the first pick of those defecting from the tories....It seems reform are the major beneficiaries. But in the next 6 weeks anything can happen to throw a wobbler in the ring... That's true, Reform are just edging Labour, but in a way that doesn't make any difference to the outcome. On the basis that Reform won't win any seats, a Labour vote is +1 for Labour and -1 for the Tories, a Reform vote is -1 vote for the Tories, giving Labour and LibDems a better chance. That's why Reform are an existential threat to the Tories. |
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Post by johnofgwent on May 26, 2024 20:59:31 GMT
But labour are not the first pick of those defecting from the tories....It seems reform are the major beneficiaries. But in the next 6 weeks anything can happen to throw a wobbler in the ring... That's true, Reform are just edging Labour, but in a way that doesn't make any difference to the outcome. On the basis that Reform won't win any seats, a Labour vote is +1 for Labour and -1 for the Tories, a Reform vote is -1 vote for the Tories, giving Labour and LibDems a better chance. That's why Reform are an existential threat to the Tories. I've made it clear previously I hope they do. Sunak is such a complete arse he deserves to see his party reduced to where the liberals were under David Steel, needing one black cab for Cyril Smith and another for the rest of the party.... I doubt I will wake on July 5th to hear such glad tidings, but one lives in hope |
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Post by Pacifico on May 26, 2024 21:34:22 GMT
Is Richard Tice going to achieve his ambitions to destroy the Tories? well we all live in hope..  |
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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 21:39:16 GMT
That's true, Reform are just edging Labour, but in a way that doesn't make any difference to the outcome. On the basis that Reform won't win any seats, a Labour vote is +1 for Labour and -1 for the Tories, a Reform vote is -1 vote for the Tories, giving Labour and LibDems a better chance. That's why Reform are an existential threat to the Tories. I've made it clear previously I hope they do. Sunak is such a complete arse he deserves to see his party reduced to where the liberals were under David Steel, needing one black cab for Cyril Smith and another for the rest of the party.... I doubt I will wake on July 5th to hear such glad tidings, but one lives in hope Do you honestly see Sunak as being the issue with the Tories? Given that he's now got them polling where Liz Truss did previously, that's an odd conclusion to come to. |
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Post by johnofgwent on May 26, 2024 21:52:32 GMT
I've made it clear previously I hope they do. Sunak is such a complete arse he deserves to see his party reduced to where the liberals were under David Steel, needing one black cab for Cyril Smith and another for the rest of the party.... I doubt I will wake on July 5th to hear such glad tidings, but one lives in hope Do you honestly see Sunak as being the issue with the Tories? Given that he's now got them polling where Liz Truss did previously, that's an odd conclusion to come to. I don't know if you have picked up on me saying this, I have done a few times across the site, but my son in law is a dyed in the wool Tory and his parents more so, in their case because he was before retirement exactly the sort of small businessman who you would have expected to see at conference in Ted Heath's time Their opinion of the oily git is unrepeatable. Well it isn't but I think I got told off last time I repeated it. I'm sure he is worshipped by some Tories But not by the ones I know. Are they truly representative? I have no idea. I can only speak as I find. The Tories I know are resigned to as many years of Starmer as it takes for people to see through him, and the only good thing about it is no way will anyone as shit as him get the reins of power ever again |
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Post by jonksy on May 26, 2024 21:58:35 GMT
But labour are not the first pick of those defecting from the tories....It seems reform are the major beneficiaries. But in the next 6 weeks anything can happen to throw a wobbler in the ring... That's true, Reform are just edging Labour, but in a way that doesn't make any difference to the outcome. On the basis that Reform won't win any seats, a Labour vote is +1 for Labour and -1 for the Tories, a Reform vote is -1 vote for the Tories, giving Labour and LibDems a better chance. That's why Reform are an existential threat to the Tories. 6 weeks is along time in politics.....The other factor of course is complacency..... |
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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 22:02:50 GMT
That's true, Reform are just edging Labour, but in a way that doesn't make any difference to the outcome. On the basis that Reform won't win any seats, a Labour vote is +1 for Labour and -1 for the Tories, a Reform vote is -1 vote for the Tories, giving Labour and LibDems a better chance. That's why Reform are an existential threat to the Tories. 6 weeks is along time in politics.....The other factor of course is complacency..... Well,that's true. Maybe there'll be a gaffe or two along the way. But if that and complacency is all you've got, I'll take that as an admission of losing the argument. |
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Post by jonksy on May 26, 2024 22:07:54 GMT
6 weeks is along time in politics.....The other factor of course is complacency..... Well,that's true. Maybe there'll be a gaffe or two along the way. But if that and complacency is all you've got, I'll take that as an admission of losing the argument. I am far from losing the arguement....Maybe you should ask yourself why are labour not picking up the tory defectors or the very many floating voters we have in the UK |
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Post by jonksy on May 26, 2024 22:11:35 GMT
We will have this type of shit from both sides for the next 6 weeks..... Election turns presidential as Starmer defends leadership after Tory attacks In a speech on Monday, the Labour leader will admit floating voters are looking at him personally and will say: 'I will fight for you'
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Post by andrewbrown on May 26, 2024 22:49:43 GMT
Well,that's true. Maybe there'll be a gaffe or two along the way. But if that and complacency is all you've got, I'll take that as an admission of losing the argument. I am far from losing the arguement....Maybe you should ask yourself why are labour not picking up the tory defectors or the very many floating voters we have in the UK They are, as per the facts I quoted. |
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