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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 30, 2024 18:19:17 GMT
“Forget the election — Rishi Sunak’s allies wonder if he’ll get that far.
Senior figures around the prime minister think he’ll face a confidence vote if the Tories are thrashed at the local elections in May. After that, all bets are off.”
The article is from The Times and thus behind a paywall but in short there are now a total of sixty seven MP’s who have declared their intent to throw in the towel when tbe election comes, and that will probably rise. The latest this week are two junior ministers both seen as Sunak supporters.
So, it’s the norm for an MP who reckons it’s time to up and run to declare such out of simple courtesy to their constituency parties to find a replacement, but according to three of The Times’ political editors they haven’t seen this many start to pack their bags since 1997.
May’s council elections are being predicted as a wipeout and after that it’s only a matter of time before the 1922 committee chair gets the requisite number of letters…..
It could be a dodgy summer …
And worst of all is the thought of losing to Starmer….
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Mar 30, 2024 19:35:04 GMT
But who's going to be willing to take over in the face of almost certain defeat?
(Well, I say defeat but the Tories aren't losing so much as self-destructing).
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Post by patman post on Mar 30, 2024 19:51:16 GMT
But who's going to be willing to take over in the face of almost certain defeat? (Well, I say defeat but the Tories aren't losing so much as self-destructing). Either way, they’re to blame…
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Post by Red Rackham on Mar 30, 2024 20:00:08 GMT
The Tories are in for a well deserved kicking no doubt about it, but Starmer has plenty to worry about. Labour fanatics who are hoping for a 1997 style election landslide will I think be disappointed. Yes Labour will probably win the election, but the big winners may well be Reform UK.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2024 20:07:39 GMT
The Tories put a giggling imbecile Blairite in charge after rejecting Conservatism, which has led to their inevitable defeat. Who gave that order?
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Mar 30, 2024 20:12:42 GMT
The Tories put a giggling imbecile Blairite in charge after rejecting Conservatism, which has led to their inevitable defeat. Who gave that order? They seem to think that the Overton Window is narrower than it is.
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Post by andrewbrown on Mar 30, 2024 21:09:51 GMT
The Tories are in for a well deserved kicking no doubt about it, but Starmer has plenty to worry about. Labour fanatics who are hoping for a 1997 style election landslide will I think be disappointed. Yes Labour will probably win the election, but the big winners may well be Reform UK. I agree the Tories will get a kicking, but I suspect some of those currently polling for Reform may revert back to Tory. Maybe even some of the Labour polling too. What do you believe would be a good outcome for Reform, either in percentage or in seats?
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 30, 2024 21:24:50 GMT
But who's going to be willing to take over in the face of almost certain defeat? (Well, I say defeat but the Tories aren't losing so much as self-destructing). Indeed If Sunak were to lose such a vote the only course i can see open is an immediate trip to the palace and the mother and father of all negative campaigns, leading to a total wipeout and Sunak fucking off to the States because lets be honest i’d be inclined to join the party to vote against the shitebag. The alternative ? Well i suppose if Sunak chooses not to go to the King for a dissolution then someone who fancies ending their career with the grateful thanks of the party might possibly stick their name in the hat for nine months tops and a peerage at the end of it.
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 30, 2024 21:32:33 GMT
The Tories are in for a well deserved kicking no doubt about it, but Starmer has plenty to worry about. Labour fanatics who are hoping for a 1997 style election landslide will I think be disappointed. Yes Labour will probably win the election, but the big winners may well be Reform UK. I agree the Tories will get a kicking, but I suspect some of those currently polling for Reform may revert back to Tory. Maybe even some of the Labour polling too. What do you believe would be a good outcome for Reform, either in percentage or in seats? I seriously doubt they will get a seat. Nationally though i expect that they may get a share of the vote similar to that given to Jeremy Thorpe’s liberals who got 20% or more of the votes and four seats with hundreds of seats going to a party getting barely 10% more votes, exposing FPTP for the shambles it is It would be good to see the Tories with fewer seats than the SNP. I think it will require a loss of that magnitude to ram home how despised the twats in number 10 and 11 are.
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Post by Red Rackham on Mar 30, 2024 21:37:02 GMT
The Tories are in for a well deserved kicking no doubt about it, but Starmer has plenty to worry about. Labour fanatics who are hoping for a 1997 style election landslide will I think be disappointed. Yes Labour will probably win the election, but the big winners may well be Reform UK. I agree the Tories will get a kicking, but I suspect some of those currently polling for Reform may revert back to Tory. Maybe even some of the Labour polling too. What do you believe would be a good outcome for Reform, either in percentage or in seats? Reform are unlikely to win many MP's which will come as little comfort to the Tories or Labour. Yes people will vote Reform as a protest vote, as people voted UKIP as a protest vote, and after 20 years UKIP got to 12% of the vote and achieved their aim. After 5 years Reform UK are polling 15% and believe me, behind the scenes both the Tories and Labour, and probably the EU, will be worried about the rapid rise of Reform UK and that support is fuelled by Tory and Labour support of mass immigration and they're not going to change, so all Reform UK need do is sit back and gather support as people become increasingly angry with the mass immigration appeasing pro EU Tory and Labour parties.
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 30, 2024 23:02:15 GMT
I agree the Tories will get a kicking, but I suspect some of those currently polling for Reform may revert back to Tory. Maybe even some of the Labour polling too. What do you believe would be a good outcome for Reform, either in percentage or in seats? Reform are unlikely to win many MP's which will come as little comfort to the Tories or Labour. Yes people will vote Reform as a protest vote, as people voted UKIP as a protest vote, and after 20 years UKIP got to 12% of the vote and achieved their aim. After 5 years Reform UK are polling 15% and believe me, behind the scenes both the Tories and Labour, and probably the EU, will be worried about the rapid rise of Reform UK and that support is fuelled by Tory and Labour support of mass immigration and they're not going to change, so all Reform UK need do is sit back and gather support as people become increasingly angry with the mass immigration appeasing pro EU Tory and Labour parties. That times article has a graph of polling intent The axes may be suspect, but for the last couple of months Reform's climb matches the Tory nosedive.
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 31, 2024 8:33:40 GMT
I agree the Tories will get a kicking, but I suspect some of those currently polling for Reform may revert back to Tory. Maybe even some of the Labour polling too. What do you believe would be a good outcome for Reform, either in percentage or in seats? Reform are unlikely to win many MP's which will come as little comfort to the Tories or Labour. Yes people will vote Reform as a protest vote, as people voted UKIP as a protest vote, and after 20 years UKIP got to 12% of the vote and achieved their aim. After 5 years Reform UK are polling 15% and believe me, behind the scenes both the Tories and Labour, and probably the EU, will be worried about the rapid rise of Reform UK and that support is fuelled by Tory and Labour support of mass immigration and they're not going to change, so all Reform UK need do is sit back and gather support as people become increasingly angry with the mass immigration appeasing pro EU Tory and Labour parties. The main concern I have is that nothing will change I look back to 2009, and I recall a European Parliamentary election so badly engaged with by the public that on the Thursday night the polling stations closed at ten, the ballot papers were all at Newbridge counting centre by quarter past, opened and 'face down counted' in the peculiar EU ritual that left unsealed ballot boxes in the labour returning officer's hands in an unknown location until Sunday when storage containers with the unsealed votes were brought back and counted, a process that took so little time that I was back in Cwmbran by 10:55 in time for a pint before last orders. (I'll leave you to wonder at the integrity of the vote with unsealed ballot papers in the control of the labour council leader for two days at a secret location ......) However in the North East and North West even that ritual removal of integrity failed to stop two BNP candidates becoming Members of the European Parliament The impact that had on Labour was quite interesting Brown, whose opinion of the English was of course revealed in his famous open mike gaffe Was reduced to stealing the BNP's "British jobs for British workers" slogan (although knowing full well he was lying his arse off as continued EU membership meant any one of 472 million people had the absolute right to rock up at Dover, demand a NINO and take a British job, and no British Government had ever used it's right to throw them back if still unemployed 13 weeks later) but the more interesting impact was upon Phil Woolas the then immigration minister who started openly stating it was time to make illegals register for asylum in the first point of entry and process their claim there, offering residence across the whole EU to those successful and a swift return to those not. These two changes of policy show that one does not need a majority to cause change, merely the ability to overthrow the status quo or sometimes not even that, given that Farage got a referendum on EU membership without a single MP. I fear that even the election of a Reform MP will not change either Labour or Tory policy (such as either have)
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Post by Handyman on Mar 31, 2024 9:41:59 GMT
Yes Labour will win the GE, but I don't think it will be by a huge majority I think it will be a low turn out I think many are just fed up with todays Politicians slagging each other off day in day out they are that desperate for votes
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Mar 31, 2024 12:55:40 GMT
“Forget the election — Rishi Sunak’s allies wonder if he’ll get that far. Senior figures around the prime minister think he’ll face a confidence vote if the Tories are thrashed at the local elections in May. After that, all bets are off.” The article is from The Times and thus behind a paywall but in short there are now a total of sixty seven MP’s who have declared their intent to throw in the towel when tbe election comes, and that will probably rise. The latest this week are two junior ministers both seen as Sunak supporters. So, it’s the norm for an MP who reckons it’s time to up and run to declare such out of simple courtesy to their constituency parties to find a replacement, but according to three of The Times’ political editors they haven’t seen this many start to pack their bags since 1997. May’s council elections are being predicted as a wipeout and after that it’s only a matter of time before the 1922 committee chair gets the requisite number of letters….. It could be a dodgy summer … And worst of all is the thought of losing to Starmer…. Look at the stupid bitch the stupid Tories want to replace Rishi with. It's the "I'm going to fight" fuckwit with the sword. Rishi is probably more sensible than he comes across due to the fact he has to represent the whole asylum (party), not say what he thinks.
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 31, 2024 16:04:54 GMT
“Forget the election — Rishi Sunak’s allies wonder if he’ll get that far. Senior figures around the prime minister think he’ll face a confidence vote if the Tories are thrashed at the local elections in May. After that, all bets are off.” The article is from The Times and thus behind a paywall but in short there are now a total of sixty seven MP’s who have declared their intent to throw in the towel when tbe election comes, and that will probably rise. The latest this week are two junior ministers both seen as Sunak supporters. So, it’s the norm for an MP who reckons it’s time to up and run to declare such out of simple courtesy to their constituency parties to find a replacement, but according to three of The Times’ political editors they haven’t seen this many start to pack their bags since 1997. May’s council elections are being predicted as a wipeout and after that it’s only a matter of time before the 1922 committee chair gets the requisite number of letters….. It could be a dodgy summer … And worst of all is the thought of losing to Starmer…. Look at the stupid bitch the stupid Tories want to replace Rishi with. It's the "I'm going to fight" fuckwit with the sword. Rishi is probably more sensible than he comes across due to the fact he has to represent the whole asylum (party), not say what he thinks. you might recall 'the stupid fuckwit with the sword' was third placed by the party to take the job....
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