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Post by steppenwolf on Mar 25, 2024 12:36:47 GMT
Sorry DD but I just don't believe it. A good accountant can do anything. If Tesla are making money out of pure electric cars then they're the only company in the world who are - except China of course. But we know that they're subsidised by the state. The Times said a few months ago that Tesla survived by selling dealerships and carbon credits. But the dealerships are cut to the bone and the market for carbon credits will disappear when the legacy car manufacturers can no longer make ICE cars. So where will Tesla make its money then.
But the more likely alternative is that BEVs become completely unsellable and we have to go back to ICE cars. Either way Tesla is screwed.
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Post by Dan Dare on Mar 25, 2024 12:58:38 GMT
You don't believe it?
You think Tesla is lying to the SEC and defrauding all its investors?
The figures I cited came directly from its mandatory official year-end 10K Report (link above). Where are you getting yours from?
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Mar 25, 2024 14:29:55 GMT
If I were a hedge fund manager I'd be shorting Tesla. It's blindingly obvious that the business model of Tesla (i.e. making a profit by selling carbon credits to traditional car manufacturers) is going to go bust. It just seems to be taking a long time. It's like the road-runner after it's run over a cliff. The two giants of the EV industry are BYD and Tesla. It is possible BYD could crush Tesla, or Tesla could crush BYD, which I tend to think is less likely, or they could kind of co-exist at the top, or even some newcomer like Huawei just steams in with some crazy invention and blows them both out of the water.
Now my take on this is I think in the future the deciding factor is going to be who masters antonymous driving first. BYD are very good at their automated manufacturing and that end of things, but not known for their AI. Huawei on the other hand are not known for their cars, but along with Baidu and Alibaba are the three main talents in Chinese AI. In the future though it gets to the point of who can come up with the hardware to run the AI, and here Huawei is a strong contender.
If you think about it the cars themselves will not really be that difficult to make. We've been doing sheet metalwork for a long time and CATL are making the subframes, so for a car you just need to plonk the bodywork on top of it and you have a car. You can arse about with different styles and materials but its going to end up with not a lot of difference between them except the tech which is what not everyone can do. By the way, even issues like aerodynamics can best be solved with AI, so once you have the brains it gives you a distinct advantage.
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Post by steppenwolf on Mar 26, 2024 7:19:20 GMT
You don't believe it? You think Tesla is lying to the SEC and defrauding all its investors? The figures I cited came directly from its mandatory official year-end 10K Report (link above). Where are you getting yours from? No I don't believe a word Elon Musk says. No other manufacturers can make a profit out of making pure electric cars so I don't believe that Tesla does. He's already been sued by the SEC for lying to investors. That's why he had to relinquish the chairmanship and pay a fine of $20 million. Tesla will go bankrupt. It's only a matter of time. And they won't even be able to sell any assets off either - anybody can make electric cars. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Mar 26, 2024 9:45:50 GMT
I won't make any further comment except to caution other members that your stock market prognostications may not be 100% reliable so tread carefully.
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Post by steppenwolf on Mar 27, 2024 7:43:20 GMT
I won't make any further comment except to caution other members that your stock market prognostications may not be 100% reliable so tread carefully. Nobody's "stock market prognostications" are 100% reliable - or anywhere near. In fact those fund managers who have very good track records are probably just lucky. However, I don't see Tesla can possibly survive. It's just a matter of time. In the next few years governments will be rethinking their attempts to legislate ICE cars out of existence, as it becomes obvious that people won't buy them. That's when the pressure will be on Tesla. They're uniquely vulnerable as they're the only car manufacture who markets only pure electric vehicles. |
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