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Post by dappy on Jan 25, 2024 13:03:29 GMT
The election gets closer and closer. At the moment it looks like Labour will take over from the Tories and at least lead the next Government but elections are unpredictable and the current gap could close. Many would agree that the current electoral system is mad but it is the one that the next election will be run under. for many elections now, the Centre Left votes have been divided whereas the Centre Right votes have been relatively united. Partly as a result we have had largely Tory governments for an extended period. History is history, nothing we can do about that but the next election is still to be determined.
It is simplistic but fair to say perhaps that the vast majority of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters would preefer a Labour lead government in 2025, the vast majority of Tory votes and Reform voters, a Tory one.
Inspired by Pacifico's comment about his constituency not too far away, I looked at he current Electoral Calculus predictions and those for the Western part of rural Devon illustrate the conundrum
Torbay : Con 34.7 Reform 10.3 Lib 26.2 Lab 22.7 Green 4.8
Dev S: Con 32.7 Reform 9.8 Lib 26.4 Lab 25.4 Green 4.9
Dev SW: Con 35.7 Reform 10.2 Lib 14.9 Lab 31.1 Green 6.6
Torridge: Con 33.9 Reform 12.3 Lib 19.1 Lab 26.7 Green 6.6
Dev N: Con 30.4 Ref 11.4 Lib 33.7 Lab 18.0 Green 5.6
Dev C: Con 30.2 Ref 10.5 Lib 21.5 Lab 29.9 Green 7.4
6 seats - projected to split Con 5 Lib 1 Lab 0
In ALL of those the "left" vote exceeds the "right" vote, so if the left voters could get there act together, we could instead end up moving five seats from right to left and perhaps end up with Con 0 , Lib 3 Lab 3 (or 4.2 one way or the other)
Who knows that difference may make the difference between a Con government and a Lab lead one
Should it be left to the electorate to work this out and tactically vote but in many cases, eg Dev S Lib and Lab are so close together it is hard to know which one to unite behind or should the parties organise a joint approach more formally?
In my seat I am certainly up for voting tactically (I will be in Dev SW next time) but I do think it might be time for something more formal. I suspect by the way that this picture applies also in many areas across the country.
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 25, 2024 15:14:28 GMT
If I had a Pound for every election I have sat through where the call that this time tactical voting will make a difference...
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Post by dappy on Jan 25, 2024 15:34:26 GMT
You wouldn't have much, Pacifico. There aren't that many elections....
On the wider point though, does tactical voting exist - yes. Can it be 100% effective - no. How much does it exist - who knows!
Lets look though at your seat for a moment. Obviously preferences will change between now and the election but ,lets assume for a moment that electoral calculus is right with current preferences for illustration purposes.
Currently they reckon our come will be
Lib Dem 33.1
Tory 32.6
Lab 18.2
Reform 9.9
Green 5.7
If you were a logical reform voter who preferred a Tory rather than a Labour government, presumably yo would be tempted to hold your nose and transfer your vote to Tory. Tory now overtake LD and get the seat.
Except if you were Labour (or Green) and want a Labour lead government, clearly it is better for your aim if your seat is won by LD rather than Tory so better surely to hold your nose and transfer your vote from Labour to LD. LD now re-overtake Tory and take the seat.
Question is, is it logical to leave all this to individual voters to work out risking getting a result you dont want or would it better for some formal seat by seat alliances?
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 25, 2024 17:07:41 GMT
I don't believe in voting for what you don't want - you should vote for what you want and accept that you don't always get your own way. A view that since the Brexit Referendum I admit is rather old fashioned - many people simply cannot accept that will not get their own way and throw a strop. We see that from some posters on here.
FWIW - I shall not be voting Reform or Conservative simply to stop the LibDems. I will vote for what I believe in and accept it is not going to happen - but I live in hope that one day.
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Post by dappy on Jan 25, 2024 17:17:21 GMT
Not sure who the posters you refer to are - but ignoring that comment…..
It is obviously up to you who you vote for. I rather agree we should have an electoral system which encourages people to vote for the party that most represents what they believe in. FPTP doesn’t do that of course and if my primary objective is to remove the Tories from power , it may make more sense for me to say vote Labour in my constituency even though say I prefer the policies of the Lib Dem’s or vice versa
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Post by johnofgwent on Jan 25, 2024 17:44:19 GMT
If I had a Pound for every election I have sat through where the call that this time tactical voting will make a difference... You would be able to get pleasantly inebriated in even a Covent Garden pub The issue which i identified several DECADES ago thanks to some sterling work by the dept of ‘political science’ and the dept if mathematics at Keele University is, to any who believe democracy requires each citizen have an equal say, is that few have any say at all The figures were uploaded to wikipedia some time ago so any with time on their hands can easily verify what i say here In short, the first past the post system combined with a three, sometimes four way split between major contenders ensures that the ‘winner’ in a general election in far too many constituencies has at best a 30% share of the vote and in others they do not so much count, as weigh, the votes cast. In both systems the losing voters can plainly see that to have their political hopes and aspirations converted into political gain is bloody hopeless. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 25, 2024 18:05:04 GMT
Not sure who the posters you refer to are - but ignoring that comment….. It is obviously up to you who you vote for. I rather agree we should have an electoral system which encourages people to vote for the party that most represents what they believe in. FPTP doesn’t do that of course and if my primary objective is to remove the Tories from power , it may make more sense for me to say vote Labour in my constituency even though say I prefer the policies of the Lib Dem’s or vice versa There is no point for me in voting tactically to remove the Tories from power to get the Labour Party in as they will only implement all the same policies we have seen for the past 2 decades. I want change so voting for more of the same with a different face is not going to achieve anything. |
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