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Post by Dan Dare on Dec 30, 2023 16:12:54 GMT
I made a passing reference to this subject in the ‘heat pump’ thread and thought the topic merits a discussion of its own.
The government has a statutory duty to publish a report on the oulook for food security of the UK every three years and this refers to the last such report originally presented in 2021 and updated this last October.
It’s a very comprehensive report by any measure, running over 300 pages, but given the importance of the topic it is probably appropriate. Here is the ‘start page’ if anyone would like to take an advance peek before I launch into the thread proper.
As can be seen, there are five themes:
1. Global Food Availability 2. UK Food Supply Sources 3. Food Supply Resilience 4. Food Security at Household Level 5. Food Safety and Consumer Confidence
I intend to focus my comments on the first three but of course if anyone wishes to bring up any other aspect for discussion, they are welcome to do so.
I have included the ‘post-Brexit’ term in the thread title since Britain has now left the Common Agricultural Policy and we do not yet understand what the long-term implications of that will be. It will be interesting to see whether the government gives that question any serious consideration in its ruminations on the UK’s food security. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 1, 2024 17:09:12 GMT
Right, so let’s kick off with Theme 1: Global food availability.
This section of the report gives an impression of ‘cautious optimism’ based largely upon a belief in the power of the market to resolve any problems that could arise in food availability across the world in future. Important to bear in mind here that the UK is a tiny player on a global scale, accounting for less than 1% of population and much less than 0.5% of global land area. Its ability to influence markets is correspondingly miniature (a little discussd aspect of Brexit).
The report emphasises the value of participating in global markets as follows:
“…The UK has relied on imported foodstuffs to supplement domestic production for over two centuries and currently almost half of food consumed in the UK is imported, although the UK is around 75% self-sufficient in foodstuffs that can be produced domestically. Sourcing food from global markets contributes to the UK’s food resilience. Diverse supply chains and global trade in agricultural and food commodities reduce the risk of food becoming unavailable and, as the risks are shared across the globe, can mitigate price shocks. as the risks are shared across the globe. It also allows consumers to access fresh, out-of-season foods which cannot be produced in the UK.”
It does however caution that:
With regard to other potential risk factors, the report notes that:
“…Several factors threaten the stability and long-term sustainability of global food production: climate change and climate variability, biodiversity loss caused by agricultural land expansion, and overexploitation of natural capital resources, including fish stocks and water resources. Current data on undernourishment as well as obesity levels across the world may indicate that global food production is not equitably meeting populations' nutritional requirements, including the UK's.”
Reading further through I was interested to see whether the authors attached sufficient weight to these risk factors, as a counter to their evident faith in the power of markets to remedy all problems. I have to say that my impression is they have not.
Take population growth, for example. The report notes that the latest (2022) projections put the global population at 7.7 billion, and an estimated 8.5 billion by 2030. But that’s as far as the report takes it even though the UN provides projections to 2050 and beyond. By 2050, the global population is estimated to grow to 9.6 billion, with over three-quarters of the increase occuring in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Central and South Asia. As it happens, it is in these regions of highest population growth that agricultural (grain) yields are the lowest and are projected to grow the least in the future. Why wouldn't a report concerned with UK and global food security look beyond a few-year horizon? It doesn't make sense.
As well as population growth, we need to take growth in material aspiration at least as seriously, something the report fails to do. With China leading the way, billions are switching from a plant- and fish-based diet to one including much more meat. The report indicates that meat consumption has increased by almost 40% since 2000, with almost all of that increase in the developing i.e. non-industrial world. High-income countries which have arrived at peak meat-consumption are unlikely to increase consumption much in the future. Asia now accounts for 40% to 45% of total global meat production, having overtaken Europe and North America as the dominant producers. Increased livestock production on a global level is likely to increase demand for animal feed, such as soybeans and maize. The UK typically requires 2.5 to 3 million tonnes of soybean products every year, used primarily for animal feed, human consumption, and pharmaceutical or industrial purposes. Virtually all soybean requirements are currently met by imports, the vast majority of which come from Argentina, Brazil, and the USA – the world’s largest soybean producers and exporters. The high concentration of soybean production in the Americas means that global soybean supplies are vulnerable to adverse weather conditions, such as droughts and floods, which are expected to become more frequent in a warmer climate. In addition, China is the world’s largest importer of soybean products, primarily for animal feed. China’s increasing demand for consuming meat products fed on soybean may therefore affect the UK’s access to soybeans.
“…Threats to fish production include over-exploitation of fish stocks, water pollution, and climate change. Rising water temperatures and acidification impact marine biodiversity and affect both the productivity and the distribution of marine fish stocks. Projections of a 1 to 2-degree Celsius increase over a 40-year period in ocean temperatures, alongside reductions in oxygen content, foresee a decline in body size for several globally important fish species. Algal blooms, which can become toxic to fish, and an increased risk of disease outbreak, pose a further threat both to the fishing and aquaculture industry”
Much of the global population still obtains its protein from fish and other aquaculture products. Consumption of fish has increased globally in the last two decades (including in the UK), while the proportion of fish stocks at biologically sustainable levels has fallen. Around one third of all stocks are being fished at unsustainable levels. As well as overfishing, stocks are at risk from the effects of climate change, particularly through ocean acidification and algal blooms.
As farming practices become necessarily more intensive (little new farmland is being created) essential inputs are placed under increasing strain. Reducing biodiversity impacts pollinating species (75% of food crops rely on animal pollinators), non-hydrocarbon fertilisers e.g. phosporus, fresh water (70% of fresh water is used in agriculture). As an indicator of global loss of bio-diversity, Sir David Attenborough recently explained that domestic pets and farm animals now account for 96% of the population of large land mammals (i.e. larger than a rodent), meaning the entire wild animal kingdom now accounts for just 4%.
Finally, to return to markets. The report has very little to say about the possibility of regional and perhaps global conflicts over resources. It does not mention even once the war in Ukraine and the impact that has had on commodity prices, especially food and energy. And, in truth, that is a conflict on a quite limited geographical scale in comparison to population-driven conflicts that could flare up in the future over access to water and food supplies, particularly in SSA, the Middle East and South Asia. |
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Post by Vinny on Jan 2, 2024 11:04:33 GMT
Just so you are aware I have fruit and veg in the fridge including tomatoes.
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 2, 2024 15:42:56 GMT
Apparently since leaving the EU Morocco has emerged as our largest supplier of Tomatoes. Over 50% of our fruit and veg imports now come from countries outside the EU.
Our suppliers are becoming more diversified and thus more secure.
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 2, 2024 15:58:08 GMT
That's the official government (Defra) mantra too. Diversity is our strength™.
But we'll take closer look at where the UK's food comes from next.
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 2, 2024 18:00:23 GMT
Well in the case of imports diversity is obviously a strength - China shutting its economy down over Covid taught everyone that, hence the dash to diversify supply chains away from China to multiple other sources.
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Post by johnofgwent on Jan 3, 2024 2:08:27 GMT
That's the official government (Defra) mantra too. Diversity is our strength™. But we'll take closer look at where the UK's food comes from next. Well it might be a mantra but in reality its a bloody good idea. While In the EU we were forced to let Brussels decide what we could grow, what we could not grow, what we could and could not import and export. That power is ours now. |
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Post by Dubdrifter on Jan 3, 2024 8:25:52 GMT
Can I just raise a major point about the title of this thread … which seems to infer Brexit might be the reason for Food security shortages?
Most Countries in the World are suffering shortages … food and everything - due to:
1) Pandemic lockdowns that deliberately engineered business collapses -
2) Sanctions over Ukraine that engineered deliberate business collapses …
3) Hedge funders/commodity manipulators/currency bankers like the Soros Posse who can engineer supply chain collapses and economic chaos at the press of a computer key in Stock Exchanges of the World..
None of this was anything to do with Brexit.
My guess is this thread is just another Project Fear quango-initiated bit of BS engineered by a persistent bunch of Bremoaners convinced UK independence and self-determination and hands-on Democratic representation is a crime.
Dan Dare … hang your head in shame … pathetic cynical social engineering thread??
Let’s be realistic … after 40 years getting lazy under EU dependency … British Administrators require some adjustments and training to get back to work after a 40 year holiday … new trading partners take some nurturing … as some members point out … diversity of supply from EU sources … can often give us an advantage when it comes to keeping trade routes open and supply lines busy.
Brexit needed considerable adjustments … but we are getting there … and doing well on the whole.
Trying to sanction the World over Ukraine fascism … and propagandists trying to pretend all our wheat and other supplies come thru Ukraine … shutting out access to Russia and China markets … and deliberately scuppering long standing trade agreements … shows us the Whitehall Establishment need to be shaken up and anarchists removed … Yes, we have traitors within our Administrative that want to blame Brexit rather than their own incompetence and malevolent manipulations - working for the interests of foreign powers.
Sunak AND Starmer are both the willing stooges of the interfering and bullying WEF. … determined to kick us back under Brussels control … put us ONCE AGAIN under the heel of their jackboot … just after we suffered so much these 8 years determined to break FREE.
… UK resistance is not a force they should be meddling with … Their credibility is already severely undermined and dented … we saw what their fascism did to Gaza and Ukraine.
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 3, 2024 9:07:42 GMT
This is what the official report has to say about Brexit:
"...[It] considers data points which will help future UK Food Security Reports assess the food security impacts of the UK’s 2020 departure from the EU, in terms both of changes to domestic production practices and to the UK’s trading relationship with the world. These impacts are likely to take some time to become apparent in statistics."
It is naive to assume that the UK's change in status from a full member in the largest food production collective in the world to a small and relatively insignificant 'independent' buyer competing against many others in an increasingly difficult and fractious global market is not going to have an impact on future food security.
More later.
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Post by johnofgwent on Jan 3, 2024 9:42:08 GMT
I don’t read the title as anything remotely like dub-d has
To me the essential issue here is we have all (unless we’ve lived under a rock since 1972) seen the worst excesses of the common agricultural policy as predicted by my parents who spent time in the EEC as well as the UK while dad was weaponising our V fleet and saw first hand what tbe policies did to food prices.
Farmers paid outrageous prices to be inefficient shits while mountains of beef and butter, and lakes of wine and milk hugely in excess of capacity are warehoused at huge expense, poured down a drain, or sold to russia and africa at a twentieth of the price uk housewives are forced to pay.
The essential point is what we as a sovereign state are doing to steer well clear of whatever shit the EU is digging itself into, and how are we exploiting the freedom from that straitjacket that Brexit has handed us to ensure our housewives never again end up slave bonded to socialist bullshit that makes stalin’s ten year plans to starve smallholders look sensible.
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 3, 2024 10:02:02 GMT
The ancient history you are reciting in such emotionally florid terms only serves to underline a basic fact: the EU is largely self-sufficient in agricultural products that can be produced there. One of the underlying principles of the CAP was, and still remains, its aim to ensure a sufficient and varied supply of safe, nutritious, affordable and sustainable food to citizens at all times.
Irrespective of what happens to world prices. The UK has lost that buffer against the vagaries of the world market and must sink or swim along with the other tiddlers who are not members of an economic bloc or large enough themselves to influence markets. On a global scale, the UK has about the same importance and influence now as a Thailand or an Egypt.
Sorry, but that's the plain unvarnished truth.
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Post by Dubdrifter on Jan 3, 2024 11:16:54 GMT
I don’t read the title as anything remotely like dub-d has To me the essential issue here is we have all (unless we’ve lived under a rock since 1972) seen the worst excesses of the common agricultural policy as predicted by my parents who spent time in the EEC as well as the UK while dad was weaponising our V fleet and saw first hand what tbe policies did to food prices. Farmers paid outrageous prices to be inefficient shits while mountains of beef and butter, and lakes of wine and milk hugely in excess of capacity are warehoused at huge expense, poured down a drain, or sold to russia and africa at a twentieth of the price uk housewives are forced to pay. The essential point is what we as a sovereign state are doing to steer well clear of whatever shit the EU is digging itself into, and how are we exploiting the freedom from that straitjacket that Brexit has handed us to ensure our housewives never again end up slave bonded to socialist bullshit that makes stalin’s ten year plans to starve smallholders look sensible. So what you are saying is that a Common Agricultural (EU) Policy … one rule fits all … has been a disaster for Europe and it’s farmers. … and small businesses/producers. … pity Bremainers don’t have long memories of that economic destruction … which is why they prey on the young, naive and inexperienced … to bully reasons to return to a mis-managed EU dictatorship that hates independent thinkers and traders. We are well-positioned to form renewed alliances with our Commonwealth partners … if they will have us back … after the EU forced us through regulation … to abandon them. Btw … If you are concerned about Stalinist plans … check out the EU’s measures to make chipping of humans mandatory … (see my thread on that with a new post with details - disturbing) If Dan Dare wants to promote the EU on here … that’s the sort of strait-jacket existence our children will be walking blindly into. If you value their FREEDOM … OPT OUT !! … these people are not to be trusted. … |
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 3, 2024 11:32:50 GMT
The only sensible piece of your hysterical diatribe:
"We are well-positioned to form renewed alliances with our Commonwealth partners … if they will have us back … "
The fundamentalist Brexiteers wet-dream. Of course they won't want the UK back after we failed to fight for their interests in 1973. Unlike the French who secured favourable arrangements for their own ex-colonies.
Unfortunately Britain's erstwhile Commonwealth suppliers have all found new dancing partners now, larger, more attractive and more lucrative for them than the good ship Blighty. They're not interested in becoming the Empire's granary and farm yard again.
You're on your own again.
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Post by Pacifico on Jan 3, 2024 12:29:33 GMT
The ancient history you are reciting in such emotionally florid terms only serves to underline a basic fact: the EU is largely self-sufficient in agricultural products that can be produced there. One of the underlying principles of the CAP was, and still remains, its aim to ensure a sufficient and varied supply of safe, nutritious, affordable and sustainable food to citizens at all times. Irrespective of what happens to world prices. The UK has lost that buffer against the vagaries of the world market and must sink or swim along with the other tiddlers who are not members of an economic bloc or large enough themselves to influence markets. On a global scale, the UK has about the same importance and influence now as a Thailand or an Egypt. Sorry, but that's the plain unvarnished truth. The UK has not been self-sufficient in food for over 200 years and yet we have never had a problem feeding the population, even before or after being a member of the EU. What we do know is that EU membership artificially pushed up the price of food on the shelves for the housewife compared with world prices. So if we must sink or swim as you put it then at least we will do it with rather less impact on the cost of living. |
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Post by Dan Dare on Jan 3, 2024 12:41:15 GMT
And yet within living memory world prices went haywire (the 2007+ financial crisis) while EU intervention prices remained unchanged. A mini-reprise of the scenario occured in 2019-22 due to Covid and the Ukraine and there is nothing to prevent similar extreme volatility in the future. A non-EU country like the UK will be fully exposed to the effects of such instability. As regards the relationship between EU and world prices at the present time there are only marginal differences for most commodities. In fact for some commodities, e.g. cheese, the world price is higher. Each month the EU publishes a 'Price Dashboard' which contains all current commodity price levels.
With respect to there being no historical problem in feeding the population it's important to bear in mind that population changes and lifestyle aspirations both have a dramatic effect on food consumption. If current trends persist - and there is little to suggest they won't - the population is likely to grow in excess of 20 million by 2050. Is the amount of land available for agriculture likely to grow over the same period? I'd suggest not, in fact the opposite is more likely as productive land is converted for housing and infrastructure necessary for a population of 80 million plus.
With no additional and likely only marginal improvements in agricultural productivity (UK agriculture is already amongst the most intensive anywhere) an agricultural sector which currently sustains a little under 60% of the population is unlikely to be able to feed much more than 40% by 2050. That means yet more imports to be sourced on a world market which will be under increasing strain due to the challenge of feeding an additional two billion globally.
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