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Post by Orac on Oct 27, 2023 10:00:16 GMT
Unfortunately this question has become highly politicised and anyone arguing that we ought to be weaning ourselves off our addiction to fossil fuels is considered to be a dangerous radical intent on wrecking western civilisation. No. 'Weening' ourselves off fossil fuels is probably a good idea - very few disagree. However, this is the Motte side of the environmentalist Motte and Bailey the Bailey side of the argument is "Anything that reduces Co2 (reduces fossil fuel use) is a net good", when it should be "Anything that reduces co2 without cost is a net good" The trouble is we don't have a good idea where the line is beyond that - so it is a political argument.
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Post by Pacifico on Oct 27, 2023 10:37:55 GMT
Surely the reality is that even if human or animal activity didn't or doesn't cause climate change, the high level of human produced greenhouse gas is exacerbating the problem. IMO humans have a responsibility to the planet to clean up their act. Success in this area should prove to be beneficial for the planet and for human life. I totally agree with that - it's the headlong rush to the use of technology that doesnt work that I have a beef with. We have gone from a system where technological innovation drove progress to one where the future is being determined by Law rather than any increase in technological knowledge and capability.
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Post by Bentley on Oct 27, 2023 10:51:31 GMT
Indeed. The rush into net zero will inevitably lead to less cars on the road and “ 15 minute cities’. One might wonder whether less cars on the road and “ 15 minute cities’ are the primary objectives .
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Post by see2 on Oct 27, 2023 11:38:31 GMT
Surely the reality is that even if human or animal activity didn't or doesn't cause climate change, the high level of human produced greenhouse gas is exacerbating the problem. IMO humans have a responsibility to the planet to clean up their act. Success in this area should prove to be beneficial for the planet and for human life. I totally agree with that - it's the headlong rush to the use of technology that doesnt work that I have a beef with. We have gone from a system where technological innovation drove progress to one where the future is being determined by Law rather than any increase in technological knowledge and capability. I see no reason why 'technological knowledge and capability' should be stunted because of the UK's venture into green energy. IMO it is often the desired or felt for need of something that is the catalyst for innovation and technological advancement, often with knock-on benefits on the side.
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Post by steppenwolf on Oct 27, 2023 12:17:33 GMT
The OP is a good summary of the situation so far - and it's worth reading for those who don't understand scientific method because it assumes no prior knowledge - which is helpful for some on this forum (naming no names).
The only bit I disagree with is that this is "the greatest scientific fraud of all time". I don't think this is actually a "scientific fraud" because in this case I think that science has been hijacked by politicians - and bodies like the IPCC who exist to further their own political agenda. I have never heard ANY scientist claim that "CO2 is the primary cause of global warming". There is simply no evidence to show this.
And the attempts to show that there is a correlation between CO2 concentration and warming are invalidated because the bodies that put forward this theory invariably use smoothing algorithms that feed the data through their own models. In other words the "smoothing" eliminates so-called "incorrect" readings by checking whether they fit their own predictions. This is obviously not science.
IMO there's a different question to answer. Are human beings destroying - or at the very least severely changing - our planet in unpredictable ways. And the answer to that is obviously yes. But it's almost certainly nothing to do with CO2 (which is largely beneficial at the current low levels) - it's to do with the changes we have to make to the planet to accommodate our huge population, and their requirements for more infrastructure and housing etc.
There is absolutely no argument whatsoever that the changes we've made to the land surface of the Earth to house and feed our burgeoning population has caused huge damage to our way of life. If you're looking for reasons for our warming, flooding, fires etc, look no further than population increases (from 1 billion to 8 billion in a bit over 100 years). But absolutely NO politician of any party will say this.
Blaming CO2 is politically much simpler. But even cutting CO2 to zero will make no difference - even if it were possible. So what happens when we find this out, many decades down the road, having bankrupted most of the Western economies while continents like Africa have had huge increases in population and destroyed their own beautiful country?
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Post by johnofgwent on Oct 27, 2023 12:21:46 GMT
Surely the reality is that even if human or animal activity didn't or doesn't cause climate change, the high level of human produced greenhouse gas is exacerbating the problem. IMO humans have a responsibility to the planet to clean up their act. Success in this area should prove to be beneficial for the planet and for human life. No. First of all carbon dioxide is a heavier than air gas that ought to be removed by dissolving in the oceans nit being boosted up tonthe stratosphere. Second analysis of gases trapped in various places suggest the ancient history of the planet featured higher Co2 and we didn’t have s runaway armageddon like Venus did we…. There are a number of such questions. But in a world where any who question are modern day hitlers …..
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Post by sandypine on Oct 27, 2023 13:57:10 GMT
It has. The “populists” needed an agenda to “show” the masses that they were being oppressed by “the elite” and have been prepared to sacrifice future generations well being to seek power today. The gullible have fallen for it. For the second time today the old adage springs to mind - democracy is the worst form of government (apart from all the others). There are many sacrifices being sought currently in the name of future generations on what amounts to a suspicion. I see those of an alarmist bent have managed to not address at all the contents of the link and repeat the same old tired mantra. The problem is of course that the research is based on the official climate observations. So much for following science.
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Post by Pacifico on Oct 27, 2023 14:13:00 GMT
I totally agree with that - it's the headlong rush to the use of technology that doesnt work that I have a beef with. We have gone from a system where technological innovation drove progress to one where the future is being determined by Law rather than any increase in technological knowledge and capability. I see no reason why 'technological knowledge and capability' should be stunted because of the UK's venture into green energy. IMO it is often the desired or felt for need of something that is the catalyst for innovation and technological advancement, often with knock-on benefits on the side. But was not what I said - nobody is complaining if progress comes from people investing in green, blue or purple energy - the problem arises when you have Laws mandating that the only technology you can use is green, blue or purple. Innovation happens in the market place through competition not by diktat of the government.
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Post by borchester on Oct 27, 2023 14:46:16 GMT
I haven't really got a dog in this fight except...
A while back I was talking to one of my grand nieces' boyfriends and he started on about climate change and I remarked that I was a gardener and as such, felt that the climate was always changing and usually for the worse. Still, I continued, a man has two important organs in his body and as long as the one between his ears is working, he should be able to solve most problems.
The kid replied with full chapter and verse. The world was ridden with CO2, the glaciers have all melted and you can't buy a polar bear for love nor money. I would have replied that more CO2 means more photosynthesis which means more food, apparently the glaciers are still there and polar bears are miserable bastards who won't be missed, but he was clearly enjoying himself and the grand niece has decided to marry him (another thing that nice but dim has yet to twig), so I didn't say anything.
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Post by zanygame on Oct 27, 2023 15:51:19 GMT
I don't recognise your "costs" I see no reason to make the move into green energy anywhere near as destructive as you seem to suggest. No would either look to take or be allowed to take the country down the pathway you imply. I do see the move into green energy as the right path to take, but clearly with caution. Have you outlined your plan to reduce global carbon emissions to 1850 levels without mass starvation? Have you any credible evidence that net zero will cause mass starvation? Seems more likely that changing weather and crop failure would lead to that.
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Post by Orac on Oct 27, 2023 16:09:55 GMT
Have you outlined your plan to reduce global carbon emissions to 1850 levels without mass starvation? Have you any credible evidence that net zero will cause mass starvation? Seems more likely that changing weather and crop failure would lead to that. Newt zero wont stop global warming. Newt zero applied globally (or in a way that might make any odds at all) would cause a disaster of such colossal proportions it would probably end civilisation. My broader point is that we are comparing two disasters - one is more or less certain if it becomes policy and the other is a matter of speculation. That's not much to go on. "Seems more likely" is just your hunch btw.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Oct 27, 2023 16:10:06 GMT
In situations like this where the science is uncertain, but where the penalty for getting it wrong is potentially catastrophic, isn't it prudent to err on the side of caution? Abso-fucking-lutely. Now we just need to decide which is the side of caution and get everyone else on board.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Oct 27, 2023 16:19:48 GMT
Newt zero wont stop global warming. Newt zero applied globally (or in a way that might make any odds at all) would cause a disaster of such colossal proportions it would probably end civilisation. My broader point is that we are comparing two disasters - one is more or less certain if it becomes policy and the other is a matter of speculation. That's not much to go on. "Seems more likely" is just your hunch btw. Yep: "Let's kill ourselves now in case we kill ourselves later" isn't a compelling argument to me.
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Post by see2 on Oct 27, 2023 16:59:39 GMT
I see no reason why 'technological knowledge and capability' should be stunted because of the UK's venture into green energy. IMO it is often the desired or felt for need of something that is the catalyst for innovation and technological advancement, often with knock-on benefits on the side. But was not what I said - nobody is complaining if progress comes from people investing in green, blue or purple energy - the problem arises when you have Laws mandating that the only technology you can use is green, blue or purple. Innovation happens in the market place through competition not by diktat of the government. IMO, no government will insist on following green energy to the detriment of the country, nor would any government be allowed to. And green energy is in the market place.
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Post by Pacifico on Oct 27, 2023 17:02:30 GMT
But was not what I said - nobody is complaining if progress comes from people investing in green, blue or purple energy - the problem arises when you have Laws mandating that the only technology you can use is green, blue or purple. Innovation happens in the market place through competition not by diktat of the government. IMO, no government will insist on following green energy to the detriment of the country, nor would any government be allowed to. And green energy is in the market place. They already have - Net Zero is written into Law irrespective of its effect on the country.
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