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Post by sheepy on Oct 1, 2023 16:11:45 GMT
Well actually he has said, they will have to look very carefully at the costings. While Suella says we expect her to crack on, funny old world.
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Post by zanygame on Oct 1, 2023 16:12:15 GMT
He's waiting to see if its a popular idea. well labour’s lead has shrivelled …. Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% |
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Post by sheepy on Oct 1, 2023 16:13:57 GMT
well labour’s lead has shrivelled …. Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% Completely pointless crap, only one poll will count, that is on the day when voting is done and dusted. |
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Post by zanygame on Oct 1, 2023 16:15:35 GMT
Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% Completely pointless crap, only one poll will count, that is on the day when voting is done and dusted. Yes meaningless. Tee hee. |
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 1, 2023 16:15:35 GMT
well labour’s lead has shrivelled …. Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% says YouGov who has nothing to do with the government, and always favours Labour. |
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Post by zanygame on Oct 1, 2023 16:17:11 GMT
Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% says YouGov who has nothing to do with the government, and always favours Labour. Says Politico. YouGov agrees? |
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Post by Handyman on Oct 1, 2023 16:46:08 GMT
Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% Completely pointless crap, only one poll will count, that is on the day when voting is done and dusted. Yes Polls only give an indication of what a small percentage of the electorate may vote now they could just as easily change their minds closer to the GE, as they say a week is a long time in politics |
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 1, 2023 16:54:23 GMT
well labour’s lead has shrivelled …. Starmer is waiting to see what Sunak doesn't say, then he'll say what people want him to say, then he'll say it, then in a few months he'll flip flop again. I'm loving it ...... 
Watch: Greg Hands mocks Keir Starmer as he brandishes flip-flops during conference speech
The Conservative Party chairman held up a pair of branded footwear as he took aim at the Labour leader.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2023 16:57:15 GMT
ok, so I will put some science into this argument over the Opinion Polls
Never read too much into one poll, but instead read the trend, which is highly likely to be close to accurate
According to one of the Tory rags ( The Daily Express ) One poll shows a narrowing of the gap to just 10 points
(Daily Express) "The survey by Opinium of 3,000 UK adults between September 27-29 puts Sir Keir Starmer's party on 39 percent, with Rishi Sunak's outfit on 29 percent"
HOWEVER - going through all the most recent polls via "Britain Elects" website, there are actually four other polls all conducted at the same time as the Opinium one, Deltapoll, YouGov, TechneUK, wethinkpolling, all show the usual 16 - 20 point lead by Labour.
This latest poll which is much lauded in The Daily Express COULD be signs of a shift, on the other hand it could just as easily be an "Outliner" ( one poll with inaccurate methodology ).
What I would fully expect is some kind of "bounce" during and immediately after the Tory Conference, but then when it comes to Labours turn for conference, see what happens then. It is after BOTH conferences when polling will give us a real indication of where things are moving.
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Post by thomas on Oct 1, 2023 17:03:16 GMT
well labour’s lead has shrivelled …. Really. Current voting intention. Labour 45% Tory 27% Libdem 10% Others 18% john is correct zany. Three polls now have reported labours lead shrivelling....
NEW: Labour lead drops to 10pts (-5)
🟥 Labour 39% (-2)
🟦 Conservative 29% (+3)
🟧 Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
🟩 Green 7% (-)
🟪 Reform 7% (-1)
🟨 Scottish National 3% (-)
Labour majority of only *24 seats* 🟥
Via @opiniumresearch
, 27-29 September (+/- vs 13-14 September)
originally people were talking labour landslide territory on a 1997 equivalent which is now reduced down to possibly only being 24 seats.
The much respected polling guru sir john curtice is talking about how soft starmers lead may be , and how for example he needs to win the rutherglen marginal by a massive majority , in a seat corbyn took in 2017 , to have any hope of showing he is going to form the next uk government.
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 1, 2023 17:06:15 GMT
Well keeping Rayner out the way has gained them a bit of a lead, the minute she shows up it drops again.
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Post by thomas on Oct 1, 2023 17:08:13 GMT
ok, so I will put some science into this argument over the Opinion Polls Never read too much into one poll, but instead read the trend, which is highly likely to be close to accurate According to one of the Tory rags ( The Daily Express ) One poll shows a narrowing of the gap to just 10 points (Daily Express) "The survey by Opinium of 3,000 UK adults between September 27-29 puts Sir Keir Starmer's party on 39 percent, with Rishi Sunak's outfit on 29 percent" HOWEVER - going through all the most recent polls via "Britain Elects" website, there are actually four other polls all conducted at the same time as the Opinium one, Deltapoll, YouGov, TechneUK, wethinkpolling, all show the usual 16 - 20 point lead by Labour. This latest poll which is much lauded in The Daily Express COULD be signs of a shift, on the other hand it could just as easily be an "Outliner" ( one poll with inaccurate methodology ). What I would fully expect is some kind of "bounce" during and immediately after the Tory Conference, but then when it comes to Labours turn for conference, see what happens then. It is after BOTH conferences when polling will give us a real indication of where things are moving. desperate spin sid. According to blairite wisdom , if you remember , when corbyn was in charge of labour , we were told any other labour leader would be twenty points ahead of the tories by now.
Starmer is ten points ahead , and dropping.
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Post by thomas on Oct 1, 2023 17:11:36 GMT
Well keeping Rayner out the way has gained them a bit of a lead, the minute she shows up it drops again. i think its when starmer opens his gub that labour drop points. He was doing so well sitting on the sidelines saying and doing nothing , but any time he puts meat on the bones of what passes as policy or suggestions of what they might get up to if they gain power , the public dont like what they see.
The pressure is massively on him to win the rutherglen marginal this week. Traditionally a labour area , where they used to comfortably take 60 % of the vote back in the bad old days , and which corbyn even won in 2017. If he doesnt win , after throwing the kitchen sink at it , then i think starmer is going to be in trouble.
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Post by Fairsociety on Oct 1, 2023 17:23:03 GMT
Well keeping Rayner out the way has gained them a bit of a lead, the minute she shows up it drops again. i think its when starmer opens his gub that labour drop points. He was doing so well sitting on the sidelines saying and doing nothing , but any time he puts meat on the bones of what passes as policy or suggestions of what they might get up to if they gain power , the public dont like what they see.
The pressure is massively on him to win the rutherglen marginal this week. Traditionally a labour area , where they used to comfortably take 60 % of the vote back in the bad old days , and which corbyn even won in 2017. If he doesnt win , after throwing the kitchen sink at it , then i think starmer is going to be in trouble.
He realised he couldn't keep sitting on the sidelines saying nothing, when they have to produce a manifesto and campaign trails for a GE, he has to come up with something on paper.
He's been hit with the ULEZ and the 20mph zones, that are going down like a lead balloon, the voters are now thinking is this a taste of things to come with a Labour government, and my answer to them would be a resounding ......... YES.
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Post by thomas on Oct 1, 2023 17:29:46 GMT
i think its when starmer opens his gub that labour drop points. He was doing so well sitting on the sidelines saying and doing nothing , but any time he puts meat on the bones of what passes as policy or suggestions of what they might get up to if they gain power , the public dont like what they see.
The pressure is massively on him to win the rutherglen marginal this week. Traditionally a labour area , where they used to comfortably take 60 % of the vote back in the bad old days , and which corbyn even won in 2017. If he doesnt win , after throwing the kitchen sink at it , then i think starmer is going to be in trouble.
He realised he couldn't keep sitting on the sidelines saying nothing, when they have to produce a manifesto and campaign trails for a GE, he has to come up with something on paper.
He's been hit with the ULEZ and the 20mph zones, that are going down like a lead balloon, the voters are now thinking is this a taste of things to come with a Labour government, and my answer to them would be a resounding ......... YES.
fully agree. The policy of sitting on his hands inevitably had to end sometime. People want to know what they are voting for.
I think starmer is in trouble myself. His polling lead has always been seen as soft , and three different polsters are talking about a drop in labour support.
It could be an interesting week ahead. If he wins rutherglen , which is expected , its one small step forward. If he doesnt , no amount of spin is going to polish that turd.
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