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Post by dappy on Aug 24, 2023 8:45:53 GMT
Summer (such as it was) is nearly over and Westminster will soon kick back into action. We are now roughly a year way from an October 24 election maybe less if he goes in May. We can expect little beyond electioneering from now on. Never the most impressive year of any parliament.
I wonder if there is an appetite for a predicting game. Time will tell.
Currently state of parties is
Tory 353
Labour 196
SNP 44
Lib 15
Independent 15
Nortern Ireland 18
Reform/Reclaim/UKIP 1
Green 1
Other 7
What do you expect (note expect not want) HOC to look like after next election. Scoring will be to add up difference either way between actual and predicted. Entries close 30 Sept.
My guess is
Tory 194
Labour 370
SNP 23
Lib 38
Independent 0
Nortern Ireland 18
Reform/Reclaim/UKIP 0
Green 1
Other 6
Labour majority of 40.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2023 9:17:07 GMT
I think the low turnouts and voter fraud will be more interesting.
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Post by Dogburger on Aug 24, 2023 9:34:42 GMT
Its a bit of a way off and the Tories need something ,anything to avoid a complete wipe out . Maybe when Starmer actually says something they will get a reprieve (lol). I wouldn't completely write off Reform or whatever they will call themselves for taking a couple seats ,Labour will take seats in Scotland again and the Lib dems will benefit from the Tories staying at home
Tories 130
Labour 415
Lib 65
SNP 10
Reform 10
NI 18
other 2
Labour maj 85
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Post by dappy on Aug 24, 2023 9:47:38 GMT
Oops basic maths letting me down. My prediction leaves Lab with a majority of 90 not 40. Head held low in shame….
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2023 10:02:36 GMT
That's OK, Dappy, I'm sure you did better than Dianne Abbott. By the looks of it it's a race to the bottom with obscurity being the winner.
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Post by dappy on Aug 24, 2023 10:06:35 GMT
True but unlike her I don't have the excuse of the extreme pressure caused by her son experiencing severe mental health breakdown. My heart and understanding goes out to any parent in such a situation regardless of party affiliation.
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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Aug 24, 2023 10:11:51 GMT
I'm expecting a replay of 2010 and I suspect those hoping for a Labour landslide are going to be disappointed.
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Post by dappy on Aug 24, 2023 10:13:57 GMT
You are entitled to your view. What do you expect the result to be? Remember expect not desire.
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Post by Pacifico on Aug 24, 2023 10:29:21 GMT
Labour - LibDem coalition
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Post by Orac on Aug 24, 2023 10:37:11 GMT
I'm expecting a replay of 2010 and I suspect those hoping for a Labour landslide are going to be disappointed. I think this is quite likely I think it's 50-50 this or a Labour victory. The turnout rates are going to be catastrophically bad in either case and call into question whether the uk is still a functioning democracy (spoiler alert, it isn't) |
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Post by Dogburger on Aug 24, 2023 11:17:28 GMT
Oops basic maths letting me down. My prediction leaves Lab with a majority of 90 not 40. Head held low in shame…. That will teach me , I followed your prediction of a majority with lazy maths of adding my ........anyway and didnt bother doing the maths which means Ive got a Labour majority of 135 which is way too high so the whole thing is trashed . Need to take 50 off of labours total I think and that will get ....Im clutching at straws here , is there a beancounter in the house !  |
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Post by dappy on Aug 24, 2023 11:31:03 GMT
415 seats would be a majority of 180. Surely too high.
Not sure that would be healthy to be honest.
I would say about a 67% chance of a Labour majority and perhaps 90% chance of a Labour lead government in 2024.
I'd be very surprised if Reform or their ilk win any let alone 10 seats. Yet another case for PR.
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Post by johnofgwent on Aug 24, 2023 18:20:24 GMT
I'm expecting a replay of 2010. 2010 was of course the consequence of the lying Scotsman trying to rip everyone off to bolster his own wallet. Jeremy Vine in the days before he became a pain in the arse ran a piece on the 2010 election that showed the split between the parties was bonkers, a labour minority government was possible if the snp got in the deal but the arrogant shit salmand decided a loose association with issue by issue allegiance funded by bribes was the only way and it was left to Clegg to render the discussions on Labours barking mad rainbow alliance defunct. I think the next election will feature another extended period during which who tbe hell knows who will have their arse in number 10 |
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Post by Dogburger on Aug 25, 2023 9:34:29 GMT
415 seats would be a majority of 180. Surely too high. Not sure that would be healthy to be honest. I would say about a 67% chance of a Labour majority and perhaps 90% chance of a Labour lead government in 2024. I'd be very surprised if Reform or their ilk win any let alone 10 seats. Yet another case for PR. You started it ,lol .  Due to you leading me up the garden path with your broken abacus Im claiming a Mulligans ! Funny though I just had a look at Electoral calculus and they have Labour with 435 a 220 seat majority so maybe my 415 wont be too high after all Chance of a Labour majority 95% |
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Due to you leading me up the garden path with your broken abacus Im claiming a Mulligans !