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Post by steppenwolf on Jul 28, 2023 6:00:53 GMT
As I said the facts are that there haven't been more fires than in earlier years. And as I said there's a good "More or Less" program about this which you can probably look up - in fact I gave you the link to it last year. The reason that people think that there are more fires is that people have been building all over the place and encroaching on areas that they have, in earlier years, avoided because of the fire risk. But as the population grows.... There have also changes in forest management which have affected the intensity of fires - brush wood tends to be left around now because it's a habitat for creatures. You just follow the disinformation every time zany. Gullin ble. New data on forest fires confirms what we've long feared: Forest fires are becoming more widespread, burning nearly twice as much tree cover today as they did 20 years ago.17 Aug 2022 www.wri.org/insights/global-trends-forest-fires#:~:text=New%20data%20on%20forest%20fires,they%20did%2020%20years%20ago. Its always something else Steppen. Never Global warming, always something else. How strange that all the something elses have the same effect as global warming. The data from the European Forest Fire Information System is that 2023 has been an average year for forest fires witha total of 150,000 hectares burned. In the worst years 500,000 hectares have burned by mid-July. So it's just more scare-mongering - which you fall for hook line and sinker.
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Post by steppenwolf on Jul 28, 2023 6:03:04 GMT
Like I said, not even a basic understanding of the carbon cycle. BTW, how does your odd theory of plants aiding cooling and maintaining a balance work out when we are cutting down forests (and burning them down with wildfires) at an alarming rate? And you're plainly out of your depth. I should stick to posting random irrelevant links. This is a complicated subject.
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Post by zanygame on Jul 28, 2023 6:51:55 GMT
Dont worry about the worlds greatest scientists and climatologist or meteorologists We have the worlds numnber 1 expert right here on these boards ... steppenwolf Am sure that if any Nobel Prize winning scientist needs any advice about climate change, he will gladly advise them I'm not an expert on climatology but I do understand scientific method and I can recognise "pseudo-science" - which has become a big industry now - when I see it. The climate models are very basic - as the modelling experts have admitted - and they can't model the behaviour of CO2 in the earth's system because it's simply too complicated. They also can't model the behaviour of water vapour, which is about 80 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and exists in vastly greater concentrations than CO2. The modelling of water vapour is completely out of the question at the moment because it exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere (water, ice and gas) so they've just left it out of the models from the point of view of warming/cooling. (Like CO2 it also has cooling effects such as when it forms clouds). In the case of CO2 what they've done is make an assumption (a hypothesis) that CO2 causes only warming and they've created a coefficient that defines the amount of warming it causes by ppm of CO2. This is a device that scientists use when they don't understand something and it's perfectly acceptable. The trouble is that the models built on this hypothesis don't work. So the hypothesis is therefore probably wrong. It's quite simple - that's the way science works. That depends entirely on what you mean by don't work. If you mean give opposite or widely inaccurate results to that the hypothesis supposes then you are right. If you just mean it can't give exact results then you are wrong. I would like to point out that of course scientists include water vapour in their modelling, the reason they focus on Co2 is its magnifying effect on the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Without AGW concentrations of water vapour would return to pre industrial levels. Further I would argue that "We can't predict accurately" has never been a scientific argument for "We should do nothing"
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Post by zanygame on Jul 28, 2023 7:02:13 GMT
New data on forest fires confirms what we've long feared: Forest fires are becoming more widespread, burning nearly twice as much tree cover today as they did 20 years ago.17 Aug 2022 www.wri.org/insights/global-trends-forest-fires#:~:text=New%20data%20on%20forest%20fires,they%20did%2020%20years%20ago. Its always something else Steppen. Never Global warming, always something else. How strange that all the something elses have the same effect as global warming. The data from the European Forest Fire Information System is that 2023 has been an average year for forest fires with a total of 150,000 hectares burned. In the worst years 500,000 hectares have burned by mid-July. So it's just more scare-mongering - which you fall for hook line and sinker. You choose a specific year and area as your evidence. Its what you always do, it was warmer in July 1917, There was a bigger flood in 1843, There was a stronger hurricane in 1956. Its the way of the denier. In the meantime.
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 28, 2023 7:44:42 GMT
I'd be rather wary of using forest fires as a measurement of climate change. As the ASI pointed out:
The biggest reduction in forest fires in both Portugal and Greece came a few years back. It used to be that if the hillside went up in flames then there was automatic planning permission for - say - tourist villas. When this was changed to burnt forest being, well, just burnt forest then the number of burnt forests rather went down.
Funny that, but have we mentioned before that incentives matter?
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Post by zanygame on Jul 28, 2023 7:46:53 GMT
I'd be rather wary of using forest fires as a measurement of climate change. As the ASI pointed out: The biggest reduction in forest fires in both Portugal and Greece came a few years back. It used to be that if the hillside went up in flames then there was automatic planning permission for - say - tourist villas. When this was changed to burnt forest being, well, just burnt forest then the number of burnt forests rather went down.
Funny that, but have we mentioned before that incentives matter?
How interesting. Do you have a link at all. If not I can look it up.
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 28, 2023 7:51:45 GMT
Apparently forest fires are raging across Europe... This was Rhodes 3 days ago - and the comment from the photographer is: "According to the media the whole of Rhodes is on fire...madness the shit they tell us."
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Post by zanygame on Jul 28, 2023 8:07:09 GMT
Apparently forest fires are raging across Europe... This was Rhodes 3 days ago - and the comment from the photographer is: "According to the media the whole of Rhodes is on fire...madness the shit they tell us."
Yes I heard that comment. Unlike you I didn't take it literally. I heard a commentator the other day say the whole world was behind the women's world cup. I didn't take that literally either.
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Post by Montegriffo on Jul 28, 2023 10:46:47 GMT
Like I said, not even a basic understanding of the carbon cycle. BTW, how does your odd theory of plants aiding cooling and maintaining a balance work out when we are cutting down forests (and burning them down with wildfires) at an alarming rate? And you're plainly out of your depth. I should stick to posting random irrelevant links. This is a complicated subject. I'm not the halfwit trying to sell oil as green energy.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2023 11:03:16 GMT
Dont worry about the worlds greatest scientists and climatologist or meteorologists We have the worlds numnber 1 expert right here on these boards ... steppenwolf Am sure that if any Nobel Prize winning scientist needs any advice about climate change, he will gladly advise them I'm not an expert on climatology but I do understand scientific method and I can recognise "pseudo-science" - which has become a big industry now - when I see it. The climate models are very basic - as the modelling experts have admitted - and they can't model the behaviour of CO2 in the earth's system because it's simply too complicated. They also can't model the behaviour of water vapour, which is about 80 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and exists in vastly greater concentrations than CO2. The modelling of water vapour is completely out of the question at the moment because it exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere (water, ice and gas) so they've just left it out of the models from the point of view of warming/cooling. (Like CO2 it also has cooling effects such as when it forms clouds). In the case of CO2 what they've done is make an assumption (a hypothesis) that CO2 causes only warming and they've created a coefficient that defines the amount of warming it causes by ppm of CO2. This is a device that scientists use when they don't understand something and it's perfectly acceptable. The trouble is that the models built on this hypothesis don't work. So the hypothesis is therefore probably wrong. It's quite simple - that's the way science works. Eminent and world leading scientists do not use "Pseudo Science" to form conclusions, they only deal in pure science based upon evidence. For me personaly I know from my own experience ( without scientific evidence ), that someting is wrong, and that the conditions today are VERY different from when I was in my teens and early 20s back in the 1970s and 1980s. Where I live here in the North of England, the frosts always arrived late October / early November, and the frosts were common and frequent - today they are now very rare. The town where I was brought up used to often get cut off by snow, and drifts at the sides of the moorland roads were 5,6 and 8 feet deep - this does not happen any more. In Winter all households where I live kept candles in case of powercuts, the blizzards used to bring down the powerlines over the moors, and today we tell children about what it was like, because they have never experienced it. I know that very soon, perhaps in another 20 years, we probably wont see snow any more I think that most people are sensible enough NOT to believe a climate change denier on a discussion board, and that they would heed what scientists are telling us, but none the less, I do think its dangerous to be spreading the lie that climate change is not happening. If enough people deny or ignore reality, the greater the chances are of nothing been done about it
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Post by Montegriffo on Jul 28, 2023 11:11:54 GMT
I'm not an expert on climatology but I do understand scientific method and I can recognise "pseudo-science" - which has become a big industry now - when I see it. The climate models are very basic - as the modelling experts have admitted - and they can't model the behaviour of CO2 in the earth's system because it's simply too complicated. They also can't model the behaviour of water vapour, which is about 80 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and exists in vastly greater concentrations than CO2. The modelling of water vapour is completely out of the question at the moment because it exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere (water, ice and gas) so they've just left it out of the models from the point of view of warming/cooling. (Like CO2 it also has cooling effects such as when it forms clouds). In the case of CO2 what they've done is make an assumption (a hypothesis) that CO2 causes only warming and they've created a coefficient that defines the amount of warming it causes by ppm of CO2. This is a device that scientists use when they don't understand something and it's perfectly acceptable. The trouble is that the models built on this hypothesis don't work. So the hypothesis is therefore probably wrong. It's quite simple - that's the way science works. Eminent and world leading scientists do not use "Pseudo Science" to form conclusions, they only deal in pure science based upon evidence. For me personaly I know from my own experience ( without scientific evidence ), that someting is wrong, and that the conditions today are VERY different from when I was in my teens and early 20s back in the 1970s and 1980s. Where I live here in the North of England, the frosts always arrived late October / early November, and the frosts were common and frequent - today they are now very rare. The town where I was brought up used to often get cut off by snow, and drifts at the sides of the moorland roads were 5,6 and 8 feet deep - this does not happen any more. In Winter all households where I live kept candles in case of powercuts, the blizzards used to bring down the powerlines over the moors, and today we tell children about what it was like, because they have never experienced it. I know that very soon, perhaps in another 20 years, we probably wont see snow any more I think that most people are sensible enough NOT to believe a climate change denier on a discussion board, and that they would heed what scientists are telling us, but none the less, I do think its dangerous to be spreading the lie that climate change is not happening. If enough people deny or ignore reality, the greater the chances are of nothing been done about it Well that is their agenda after all. It'll be ''I'm alright Jack'' until they aren't. Then it'll be ''why didn't you do something''.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2023 18:59:24 GMT
I'm not an expert on climatology but I do understand scientific method and I can recognise "pseudo-science" - which has become a big industry now - when I see it. The climate models are very basic - as the modelling experts have admitted - and they can't model the behaviour of CO2 in the earth's system because it's simply too complicated. They also can't model the behaviour of water vapour, which is about 80 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and exists in vastly greater concentrations than CO2. The modelling of water vapour is completely out of the question at the moment because it exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere (water, ice and gas) so they've just left it out of the models from the point of view of warming/cooling. (Like CO2 it also has cooling effects such as when it forms clouds). In the case of CO2 what they've done is make an assumption (a hypothesis) that CO2 causes only warming and they've created a coefficient that defines the amount of warming it causes by ppm of CO2. This is a device that scientists use when they don't understand something and it's perfectly acceptable. The trouble is that the models built on this hypothesis don't work. So the hypothesis is therefore probably wrong. It's quite simple - that's the way science works. Eminent and world leading scientists do not use "Pseudo Science" to form conclusions, they only deal in pure science based upon evidence. For me personaly I know from my own experience ( without scientific evidence ), that someting is wrong, and that the conditions today are VERY different from when I was in my teens and early 20s back in the 1970s and 1980s. Where I live here in the North of England, the frosts always arrived late October / early November, and the frosts were common and frequent - today they are now very rare. The town where I was brought up used to often get cut off by snow, and drifts at the sides of the moorland roads were 5,6 and 8 feet deep - this does not happen any more. In Winter all households where I live kept candles in case of powercuts, the blizzards used to bring down the powerlines over the moors, and today we tell children about what it was like, because they have never experienced it. I know that very soon, perhaps in another 20 years, we probably wont see snow any more I think that most people are sensible enough NOT to believe a climate change denier on a discussion board, and that they would heed what scientists are telling us, but none the less, I do think its dangerous to be spreading the lie that climate change is not happening. If enough people deny or ignore reality, the greater the chances are of nothing been done about it I too have noticed a change. Except on the nearby moors snow was always a rarity here in the southwest, but winters still tended very often to be cold. We still get cold days now during winter, sometimes several in a row, but they tend to be the exception rather than the norm now. Typical winter temperatures here now rise into double figures celsius. Frost is much less frequent than I remember it being. And I used to mow grass for a living at one point the the 1980s. Typically back then it wouldnt even begin to start growing again until late March, and would have pretty much stopped growing by November. These days it seems to start growing several weeks earlier and stops growing several weeks later. We have in recent years experienced such unseasonably mild winter days sometimes that bees have been tempted out in February. Heatwaves in particular locations have always happened occasionally. I well remember the long hot summer of 1976. But in recent years such heat occurs far more often over far wider geographic areas. And rarely a year goes by without a heat record being broken somewhere. Forest fires of course have always been newsworthy and always been reported, but it is clear that they are far more common and widespread in more recent years. The thing is, whatever the naysayers say, all this was predicted by climatologists two or three decades ago. The only thing they appear to have gotten wrong is that it has all been happening much faster than they predicted.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2023 6:04:47 GMT
Apparently forest fires are raging across Europe... This was Rhodes 3 days ago - and the comment from the photographer is: "According to the media the whole of Rhodes is on fire...madness the shit they tell us."
According to Greece's senior climate crisis official the fires were started across the country by criminal negligence and intent. For me this spells out eco-terrorism, which is being peddled by the media as fear porn whilst the left-wing fascists are pushing for more state control over the little man.
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Post by steppenwolf on Jul 29, 2023 6:56:52 GMT
I'm not an expert on climatology but I do understand scientific method and I can recognise "pseudo-science" - which has become a big industry now - when I see it. The climate models are very basic - as the modelling experts have admitted - and they can't model the behaviour of CO2 in the earth's system because it's simply too complicated. They also can't model the behaviour of water vapour, which is about 80 times more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas and exists in vastly greater concentrations than CO2. The modelling of water vapour is completely out of the question at the moment because it exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere (water, ice and gas) so they've just left it out of the models from the point of view of warming/cooling. (Like CO2 it also has cooling effects such as when it forms clouds). In the case of CO2 what they've done is make an assumption (a hypothesis) that CO2 causes only warming and they've created a coefficient that defines the amount of warming it causes by ppm of CO2. This is a device that scientists use when they don't understand something and it's perfectly acceptable. The trouble is that the models built on this hypothesis don't work. So the hypothesis is therefore probably wrong. It's quite simple - that's the way science works. 1.That depends entirely on what you mean by don't work. If you mean give opposite or widely inaccurate results to that the hypothesis supposes then you are right. If you just mean it can't give exact results then you are wrong. 2. I would like to point out that of course scientists include water vapour in their modelling, the reason they focus on Co2 is its magnifying effect on the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Without AGW concentrations of water vapour would return to pre industrial levels. 3. Further I would argue that "We can't predict accurately" has never been a scientific argument for "We should do nothing" 1. I can't make any sense of this gobble-de-gook. The predictions of the climate models have been shown to wrong for decades - and always in the direction of exaggerating warming. 2. You do have a habit of just making stuff up zany. This is just rubbish. As I've said the "climate change models" are based heavily on the weather models with the exception that they include a coefficient that determines how much the temperature rises for increases in CO2. That's all. There is no such calculation for water because they can't model a substance that exists in 3 phases in the atmosphere. They can't even model a simple substance like CO2 which is always a gas - that's why they use the hypothesis. As for "Without AGW concentrations of water vapour would return to pre industrial levels" don't be ridiculous. Water vapour various hugely and is widely ignored. You just make stuff up zany. 3. That's the old nonsense "We must do something". This is the kind of stuff that has led to the sale of vast numbers of diesel cars that have led to illegal levels of pollutants in our cities.
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Post by steppenwolf on Jul 29, 2023 7:02:09 GMT
The data from the European Forest Fire Information System is that 2023 has been an average year for forest fires with a total of 150,000 hectares burned. In the worst years 500,000 hectares have burned by mid-July. So it's just more scare-mongering - which you fall for hook line and sinker. You choose a specific year and area as your evidence. Its what you always do, it was warmer in July 1917, There was a bigger flood in 1843, There was a stronger hurricane in 1956. Its the way of the denier. In the meantime. Where does this data come from? And it doesn't go beyond 2021. The fact is that 2023 is an average year for "wildfires" - yet the climate change lobby are saying that going gangbusters on wildfires and the like. And you should stop using the word "denier" if you ever want to be taken seriously.
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