Boris is gone...

I wonder why starmer hasn't done the same? I am sure you will have a coherent explanation wonky.

Well lets hope all those experts he relied on have crawled back under their rocks as well. But guess what? 

Let us have a closer look - shall we ? 


UXBRIDGE & SOUTH RUISLIP ( 2019 Result )

Boris Johnson           (Con) .......... 25,351

Ali Milani                  (Lab) .......... 18,141

Joanne Humphreys   (LibDem) .....  3,026

Swing required for Labour to take this seat = 7.5%

Target seat number 91 for Labour

Current polling numbers (average poll of polls ) = Labour 15 points ahead of the Conservatives 

According to "Electoral Calculus" this seat based on current polling figures will be won by Labour 

I bet the price of popcorn will go up mate.

We can all make predictions and polling at the moment suggests that you are probably right. But you say it with a certainty that is unwise, because nothing is ever certain until the votes are counted.

But Labour's clear strategy of trying to be a more competent version of the Tory party might well go down well with former Tory voters, and large numbers of people who are so fed up with the Tories now will vote for whomever is most likely to defeat them. So my money is on Labour taking this seat but I am not foolish enough to regard it as a certainty until the results are announced.

As for Labour more generally across the country it appears that it is starting to look like an electable option for the kind of Tory supporters who backed Blair for a time. Whilst everyone desperate for change for the better are increasingly pinning their hopes on them, so desperate are they to be rid of the Tories. It is starting to look like the mid 90s again but with one serious proviso. Any incoming Labour government is going to inherit a far worse economic situation than Blair did, so it could all start to unravel much more quickly. In particular, all those desperate for change - indebted students, private tenants, all those who cannot afford to buy and cannot get access to social housing, the precariat in their insecure employment, need radical change in these areas. If  an incoming Labour government fails to deliver it and looks like another version of Tory-lite, support from the struggling millions will evaporate very quickly. Housing policy in particular requires radical change.

I have been something of a naysayer re Starmer and his gang. I will not be voting Labour myself. But if they get in either as a majority government, or as a minority or coalition one, I will adopt an open mind and criticise where I think it is warranted and give credit where I think it is warranted, and give what I regard as an honest assessment of everything it does. I will give credit where any credit is due. I will not automatically attack everything. But my expectations are not high. I hope I am pleasantly surprised. If I am I will say so. But I predict that under current leadership, Labour will prove to be a severe disappointment. But like I said I hope I am wrong and will assess honestly - if they get in. Because nothing is certain until the votes have been counted.

I enjoyed reading your post, its very pragmatic, balanced and is probably a good example of how many "floaters" are currently thinking.

For those of us who fit comfortably into the "Social Democrat" category, as oppossed to "Socialist", we are the moderates of the Left, we accept there is no other system but Capitalism. But capitalism has to work for the people, it has to be regulated, and it must be controled in such a way as to protect people.

This means for example that Employment Rights taken away by the Conservatives will almost certainly be restored if Labour wins the next election ( as happened during the Blair / Brown years ), it means that measures will be put into place to end the unfairness of Zero Hours Contracts.

These are the kinds of things that the Conservatives have no interest in doing, because it does not fit in with their Free Market / Free For All agenda. 

One thing is certain, and that is that Kier Starmer IS NOT Tony Blair, and his agenda is not New Labour, but it is based on similar ideas, a Left of centre government which understands the role and importance of business, commerce, manufacturers and those that create wealth.

I agree that its not a "dead cert" that this tired, old, washed out government will be ousted next year, though as we edge ever closer to the election, its looking promising. As for the Uxbridge By-election, I would place a bet on the Tories losing it.