Post by Baron von Lotsov on Oct 23, 2022 12:43:05 GMT
It has just been announced on the radio that inflation was due to central banks printing large amounts of money during covid which was a "mistake". One caveat here is I did not catch whether it was a past governor or the current one, perhaps someone knows.
Never-the-less, it is coming from the BoE which is supposed to be independent. It's not a conspiracy theory as I'm often accused of. In fact I was just having this argument the other day with some nutter British press readers who tried to tell me it was all Truss' fault and she should resign. I see this governor timed his comments too late for Truss, poor girl. Anyway, this is the bottom line. He also says that we can not have growth now. He says the only way to control inflation is by those countries affected going into recession now. He was not of course just talking about the British economy and I do happen to know the US also printed huge amounts of money and so this is why they have inflation despite the energy price over there being 1/4 of what it is here.
So how it works is if you print a ton of cash you now have to collect it back up again and burn it. In practice the money supply is always expanding but now it needs to slow down to less than normal. This means we have large hikes in interest rates that need to be above the level of inflation. You see what happened is as the money was printed during covid it was frittered away on a lot of online entertainment where tech firms saw massive profits with pretty shite businesses. They were able to borrow at ridiculously cheap rates and the people were as well so the people borrowed cheap money to fritter on limited entertainment and the firms got an unnatural positive boost. Now the money they borrowed becomes very expensive and their demand shrinks too, so they go bust. They need to go bust due to being such low productivity firms that should never have existed. This is what the recession will be: the going bust of low productivity business. What will survive is the highly efficient producers of basic necessities. They will gain market share and as the normality returns they will do very well as their market share yields more as consumer spending returns.
So there you go - cheap borrowing sounds enticing but it is fool's gold.