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Post by The Squeezed Middle on Apr 12, 2023 14:59:43 GMT
And when it comes to the real thing, I predict it'll be closer to 31/31. If Starmer gets in, a big IF, he's going to have to go cap in hand to the SNP or Fib Dims if he wants to actually get anything done. Indeed, he said he would not work with the SNP, but we all know if that's what it takes to get into number 10 he would be on his knees again, this time giving McYousaf a blowjob. Starmer can see which way the polls are going, and he knows that Sunak is a more popular party leader than he is, which is why Labour have embarked on this latest very personal hate campaign against Sunak that even some people in the Labour party are criticising. This suggests, with 18 months to go before the election, Starmer is begining to worry. As well he should: He needs a plan and he doesn't have one. And, as the election gets closer, the Tories will doubtless point out all the lies that Starmer's told.
And even that assumes that Labour can avoid another anti-Semtitic/pro-paedo etc. scandal and that Rayner, Abbott, Lammy & Co can keep their gobs shut.
And in Londonistan, a lot of Labour voters are going to get hammered by Labour's ULEZ extension which won't do Labour any favours.
All told I'm really not sure that we'll ever see Beer Korma as PM.
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Post by Pacifico on Apr 12, 2023 16:20:47 GMT
Whilst I think the result in the actual GE will be a lot closer than the present polling suggests, I don't think the Tories have a hope in hell of winning - Labour will be the largest Party although without a majority.
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Post by borchester on Apr 14, 2023 10:57:54 GMT
Usually bollocks, but fun
So for the period 29 March 2023 - 7 April 2023.....
Labour 44.8%
Conservatives 27.9%
Lib Dems 9.6%
Reform 5.9%
Green 4.9%
SNP 3.6%
Buggered if I know how that translates into seats, but if anyone has a template, I would be much obliged
And for the period 29 March 2023 - 9 April 2023...
Labour 45.% +0.2 %
Conservatives 28.5 % +0.6 %
Lib Dems 9.7% +0.1 %
Reform 5.9% No change
Green 4.7% -0.2 %
SNP 3.2% -0.4 %
So it looks as though all the three main parties are picking up votes, Reform is standing still, the Greens have yet to notice the dream of Spring and the SNP has crossed Peter Murrell off its Christmas card list 
And for the period 29 March 2023 - 13 April 2023...
Labour 44.7.% - 0.3 %
Conservatives 28.7 % +0.2 %
Lib Dems 9.8% +0.1 %
Reform 5.9% No change
Green 4.7% No Change
SNP 3.3% +0.1%
So it looks as the electorate are not as bothered by by Tory sleaze as the brothers and sisters had hoped as the Labour vote has fallen and the Conservative risen. The Lib Dems are still picking up the Oh sod it vote, the SNP have decided to forgive Pete Murrell and everyone else is sitting on their hands and waiting for the shoe to drop
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Post by Fairsociety on Apr 14, 2023 11:05:40 GMT
A lot can happen between now and the next GE, and people have short memories, I suspect the Tories will be working towards a GE plan, namely getting inflation down, sorting out the energy crisis, interest rates mortgage should be down, the cost of living crisis should be easing off with inflation falling, and of course probably the elephant in the room the illegal migrant crisis, if the Tories manage to pull off most of this, and depending if Starmer is making a hash of things the Tories still stand a chance of winning the next GE, we seen how it all changed when Johnson won his landslide victory.
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Post by borchester on Apr 14, 2023 11:45:28 GMT
A lot can happen between now and the next GE, and people have short memories, I suspect the Tories will be working towards a GE plan, namely getting inflation down, sorting out the energy crisis, interest rates mortgage should be down, the cost of living crisis should be easing off with inflation falling, and of course probably the elephant in the room the illegal migrant crisis, if the Tories manage to pull off most of this, and depending if Starmer is making a hash of things the Tories still stand a chance of winning the next GE, we seen how it all changed when Johnson won his landslide victory. All governments are permanently working towards a GE plan.
Inflation is expected to fall this year and continue to do so for the next few years.
I can't see Interest rates falling. The economy is doing well, which means more investment which means money will become more expensive.
I would have thought that the real immigrant crisis would be if the UK was so impoverished no one wanted to come here.
Starmer and Sunak have to be the dreariest bastards the UK body politic has had since the last pair of dreary bastards and it is very difficult to get excited about either of them
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The polls
Apr 14, 2023 19:12:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Apr 14, 2023 19:12:14 GMT
A lot can happen between now and the next GE, and people have short memories, I suspect the Tories will be working towards a GE plan, namely getting inflation down, sorting out the energy crisis, interest rates mortgage should be down, the cost of living crisis should be easing off with inflation falling, and of course probably the elephant in the room the illegal migrant crisis, if the Tories manage to pull off most of this, and depending if Starmer is making a hash of things the Tories still stand a chance of winning the next GE, we seen how it all changed when Johnson won his landslide victory. Inflation and interest rates are for the remit of the Bank of England, not the government. The rest of your post is correct. |
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Post by Fairsociety on Apr 14, 2023 19:21:01 GMT
A lot can happen between now and the next GE, and people have short memories, I suspect the Tories will be working towards a GE plan, namely getting inflation down, sorting out the energy crisis, interest rates mortgage should be down, the cost of living crisis should be easing off with inflation falling, and of course probably the elephant in the room the illegal migrant crisis, if the Tories manage to pull off most of this, and depending if Starmer is making a hash of things the Tories still stand a chance of winning the next GE, we seen how it all changed when Johnson won his landslide victory. Inflation and interest rates are for the remit of the Bank of England, not the government. The rest of your post is correct. Actually inflation rates and interest rates go hand-in-hand, when inflation rises so to do interest rates, that's how it works.
So if we get to grips with inflation we can control of interest rates, one of the main factors of inflation is energy prices, we get them down and we can tackle inflation.
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The polls
Apr 14, 2023 19:27:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrewbrown on Apr 14, 2023 19:27:13 GMT
They absolutely go hand in hand, but my point is that they are the remit of BoE, not the government.
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Post by Fairsociety on Apr 14, 2023 19:47:58 GMT
They absolutely go hand in hand, but my point is that they are the remit of BoE, not the government. Now there is a point, the government made the BoE independent, meaning inflation and interest rates were no longer capped by the government, by making the BoE independent of the government gave them a free hand to be privatised as such. |
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Post by sheepy on Apr 14, 2023 20:04:05 GMT
LOL the Westminster party don't have enough voters between them to fill a village hall, all very amusing I am sure, convincing yourselves the same thing time and time again, will come out smelling of roses. You would need to be insane to vote for any of it. I understand that we have a mental health crisis and the lunatics are ruling over the asylum, but as they are all already back peddling on everything, they have said I wouldn't bet on the plebs turning out for even more of it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2023 20:43:38 GMT
Whilst I think the result in the actual GE will be a lot closer than the present polling suggests, I don't think the Tories have a hope in hell of winning - Labour will be the largest Party although without a majority. I hope you are right because that is exactly what I am hoping for. Tories unable to form a government. Labour able to but only with the support of others. And this leads to my crucial hope. That those others insist upon PR - or at least a referendum on it - as a condition of their support. Starmer is so desperate for power that he would pay that price. |
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Post by Steve on Apr 15, 2023 21:05:47 GMT
I do wonder why anyone votes Green these days as most of the other parties have taken on their policies, Labour and Tories particularly. But they do seem to have monetised the issue, somewhat. Taken on some of their policies to some extent. EG none of the other parties have a policy of ending all CO2 emissions by 2033 as the Greens do |
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Post by dodgydave on Apr 16, 2023 0:51:52 GMT
If Sunak ditches Braverman I think it might be quite close, she is just vile.
Starmer is winning by default at the moment, but his sums don't add up. He will have to raise taxes for everybody to make a significant change to public services. If inflation and interest rates are down come next election, then people might just vote for the status quo rather than risk it.
I wish politicians could make a case for funding better public services by increasing taxation, but you know the British public, they hate taxes. They want Nordic levels of public services, on American levels of taxation.
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Post by borchester on Apr 16, 2023 1:55:56 GMT
And for the period 29 March 2023 - 9 April 2023...
Labour 45.% +0.2 %
Conservatives 28.5 % +0.6 %
Lib Dems 9.7% +0.1 %
Reform 5.9% No change
Green 4.7% -0.2 %
SNP 3.2% -0.4 %
So it looks as though all the three main parties are picking up votes, Reform is standing still, the Greens have yet to notice the dream of Spring and the SNP has crossed Peter Murrell off its Christmas card list
And for the period 29 March 2023 - 13 April 2023...
Labour 44.7.% - 0.3 %
Conservatives 28.7 % +0.2 %
Lib Dems 9.8% +0.1 %
Reform 5.9% No change
Green 4.7% No Change
SNP 3.3% +0.1%
So it looks as the electorate are not as bothered by by Tory sleaze as the brothers and sisters had hoped as the Labour vote has fallen and the Conservative risen. The Lib Dems are still picking up the Oh sod it vote, the SNP have decided to forgive Pete Murrell and everyone else is sitting on their hands and waiting for the shoe to drop
And for period 2 April 2023 to 14 April 2023.. Labour 44.8.% +0.1 % Conservatives 28.1 - 0.6 % Lib Dems 9.8% No Change Reform 6.2% + 0.3% Green 5.0% + 0.3% SNP 3.6% +0.3% So it looks as thought the electorate are bothered by by Tory sleaze after all and have given the Conservatives a kicking and Labour a pat on the back, much to the benefit of Reform, the Greens and the SNP, all of whom have broadened their bottoms. |
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Post by Pacifico on Apr 16, 2023 6:43:40 GMT
If Sunak ditches Braverman I think it might be quite close, she is just vile. Starmer is winning by default at the moment, but his sums don't add up. He will have to raise taxes for everybody to make a significant change to public services. If inflation and interest rates are down come next election, then people might just vote for the status quo rather than risk it. I wish politicians could make a case for funding better public services by increasing taxation, but you know the British public, they hate taxes. They want Nordic levels of public services, on American levels of taxation.
Perhaps we wouldnt hate taxes so much if experience over the decades had not shown that governments (of all hues) simply waste most of the tax they collect. I see the latest wheeze is to give (on the NHS) free vapes to expectant mothers who smoke - so these women can afford £11 for 20 Bensons but are unable to spend a fiver for a vape. There is a good article in todays Telegraph about why Texas is so economically successful - they don't levy income tax, capital gains or corporation tax and run a balanced budget. Most importantly, the State Government only sits every other year and then for just 140 days so the politicians are not looking to introduce a different scheme every week to get their name in the papers. |
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