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Post by Vinny on Dec 1, 2022 10:13:30 GMT
The SNP are far left.
They're crazed tax and spenders themselves.
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Post by morayloon on Dec 1, 2022 18:45:49 GMT
The SNP has made a good fist of things given the current situation. I have posted, elsewhere, rebuttals of the 'policy failure' accusations. In comparison to the other nations Scotland is doing well but you never hear that. The Unionist media have never published anything that shows the SNP in a good light! It is a wonder that the party is still polling in the 40%s. However, the electorate see through the misinformation and I expect, come the election, the people who have moved to Labour will return once they realise their mistake, especially once it is brought home to them that the surge is down to straight transfers from the Tories to the Red Tories, i.e. unionist to unionist But that is the point - if Unionist support is coalescing around Labour rather than being split 3 ways then that will make it more likely that Unionist (ie Labour candidates) win elections from the SNP. Yes, it could happen but it would need all unionist parties to join & work together. Labour was hit badly because of the part it played in BT - Labour has paid the price for going down that route. With about 30% of its support supporting Independence would Sarwar & Starmer chance a repeat of 2015 when the Unionists on 48.3% of the vote only managed 3 seats between them (out of 59 seats). Or in the following year's Scottish election where the united unionists only gained 14 seats (out of 73 FPTP seats) from 52.4% of the vote. So, I don't think it is as simple as the three parties choosing which party will stand in which constituency, With the SNP being the incumbent in so many seats and with them polling 40%+ the unionists will find it difficult to unseat an SNP MP. Look what happened when Ramsay MacDonald went into coalition with the Tories, the vast majority of Labourites did not follow him. And so, if Sarwar went into bed with the Tories, again, he risks losing at least one third of Labour's support. I haven't seen John Curtice's seat prediction yet - that will make for interesting reading. |
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Post by morayloon on Dec 1, 2022 19:23:33 GMT
Just put the Poll figures into the Election Calculus predictor, result:
Tory 3
Labour 12
LD 5
SNP 39
That shows just how uphill a battle Labour has. SNP would lose 11 seats to Labour but gain 3 from the Tories.
The figures don't tell us what would happen if the Unionists banded together but I believe Labour would be the weak link
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