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Post by totheleft3 on Feb 28, 2023 15:39:55 GMT
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Post by Vinny on Mar 1, 2023 10:36:50 GMT
It's a poll.
Don't trust polls.
Kinnock did, before the 1992 election and got the shock of his life.
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Post by jonksy on Mar 1, 2023 11:06:50 GMT
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 1, 2023 11:34:23 GMT
It's a poll. Don't trust polls. Kinnock did, before the 1992 election and got the shock of his life. True, but a quick glance at the electoral record in wales will show you why they have reason to be worried. Dickford enjoys his fiefdom NOT because of what Thatcher did but how much she ENJOYED doing it and how much he ENJOYED bragging to her sons stockbroker chums how she did fuck all to help those whose livelihoods she destroyed. Right now Jeremy in No 11 is the perfect example of her disdain and contempt personified. His failure to deal with the fact nobody earning less than me needs a foodbank or they freeze to death will not be forgotten. I think the poll figures exaggerate the number of votes they will get. I’ve told the local party councillors this to their face. Its not their fault their leader is looking at evading paying £250million in inheritance tax. They started to object but shut up very quickly when i showed them the treaty he’s allowing his wife to exploit to evade payment. They shut up then because they remember what happenned when i revealed they’d bribed the pakistani born plaid cymru assembly member to become a tory after plaid revealed they were too ethical to bribe him with a job for his wife at public expense, so he became a tory assembly member when the current assembly leader of the tories agreed to bribe him with exactly such a cushy job. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2023 11:49:03 GMT
Polls are very different from what they were 30 years ago, and whilst they are rarely 100% accurate, they are vastly more accurate than what they used to be.
The point is that ALL POLLS by every polling company have put the Tories way behind for a year now, and I think only a fool would deny that as things stand, Labour are on track to form the next government.
But its not only the fact that Labour are ahead, there are other factors to take into consideration, such as the margin of lead ... currently still between 15 ( bottom end ) and a staggering 27 ( top end )
[ Deltapoll 27th & Redfield Wilton 26th ]
After 13 years, people are tired of the Conservatives, many believe its time for change
Jeremy Corbyn and the Loons have gone, and people now feel they can trust Keir Starmer and Labour
Perception ... the recovery from recession took years, it was painful, and strong growth has never returned, we seem to be on the precipice of another recession with falling house prices and falling living standards.
A PERFECT STORM ... It looks as though the SNP are falling apart, with a civil war going on, and Labours polling numbers have suddenly shot up in Scotland.
Yes I suppose everything could change, but if I were a betting man, I would not put my money on Rishy been the Prime Minister in 2025
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Post by johnofgwent on Mar 1, 2023 16:28:55 GMT
There is perhaps another aspect to mention
In recent elections there has been something of an upset between the opinion polling and the actual election day
While i have heard this talked of in various ways, one idea put forward is that people are lying to pollsters, telling them what they want to hear, then waiting to deliver their actual verdict when it matters. In the election.
Is this a realistic factor ? Who knows. It did provide an explanation to the broadcasting pundits to argue about.
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Post by vlk on Mar 1, 2023 16:58:31 GMT
In a two party-system when one party has been in power for long and people are tired of it the other party wins a completely exaggaratedly big and undeserved victory in the next election.
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