Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2023 10:38:22 GMT
The Brexit Purists' new arguments: (a) that it is too early to judge Brexit, (b) that it has been implemented badly and (c) that Brexit was only ever a question of sovereignty.
Never BJ's Brexit, of course.
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/trade-down-economy-sinking-support-falling-is-the-tide-finally-turning-on-brexit/ar-AA177yB9?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=1134dece8f02402fb867a18dff7b2caf
extracts:
Trade down, economy sinking, support falling: is the tide finally turning on Brexit?
Story by Michael Savage and Toby Helm
Throughout the turbulent years that Michel Barnier spent dealing with Brexit, the former EU negotiator’s endless talks with British counterparts failed to help him answer the simplest of questions – what did they want Brexit to achieve?
“For me, for many of us, Brexit remains a nonsense,” he told the Observer. “Taking into account British national interest, there is no added value to being outside the single market and the customs union. Throughout this process, I asked British leaders every day –from all the parties, [Nigel] Farage, trade unions or the business community – to give me proof for the added value of Brexit. Nobody was able to do this.”
The clock has now ticked on three years. Barnier is struck by the difference in the debate between the UK and the rest of the continent. “To be frank, coming back to London, I see that Brexit is always on the front page,” he says. “There are many questions and many polls, but it’s not the case in the EU. Brexit is no longer a problem for us. We have turned the page.”
Others who voted for Brexit talked of incompetent ministers or a failure of the ruling elite to “get behind” the concept. As if to bring home the realities of life outside the bloc, Brexit’s anniversary celebrations coincided with a warning from the International Monetary Fund that Britain will be the only major industrialised country to see its economy shrink this year – and perform even worse than sanctions-hit Russia.
So, three years after Britain’s EU departure, is the country coming to the same conclusion about the benefits of Brexit that figures like Barnier expressed from the start?
Pollsters do now suggest that around one in five leave voters have changed their minds. Over the past few months, the proportion of voters who want to rejoin the EU has risen to about 58%, while the proportion of those wanting to stay out has fallen to around 42%.
Behind the shift, according to analysts, is evidence that voters have become more negative about the economic effects of Brexit, both on the country and on their own personal finances. As recently as 2021, more people thought Brexit would have a beneficial economic effect, whereas the net figure is now -27%. The IMF’s missive last week added grist to that mill.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said other countries were not being affected to the same extent as the UK by shortages of labour. The UK labour force, he said, had half a million fewer people than before the pandemic, as a result of people retiring early and fewer EU immigrants. “That’s not affecting any other country in Europe … it’s a particular challenge for us,” he said. The continuing “challenges from Brexit” and the rapid impact of higher interest rates on mortgage costs were also factors, he said.
Research by the Centre for European Reform (CER) in December showed that Britain’s economy was 5.5% smaller than it would have been had it remained inside the EU. The UK’s goods trade was 7% lower, and investment 11% down on what it would have been had the remain campaign won in 2016. The Office for Budget Responsibility stands by a prediction that Brexit will cause a long hit to GDP per capita of 4%. Pro-Brexit economic arguments have become thin on the ground.
As UK public opinion turns, the attractiveness to voters in other member states of their nations quitting the EU, which rose around the time of the referendum in 2016, has declined markedly. The European Social Survey (ESS), led by City, University of London, found respondents were less likely to want to leave than in 2016-17 in every EU member state for which data was available.
While boasts of Brexit’s positive economic impact have subsided, it would be wrong to say that prominent Brexiters have had a change of heart. The arguments deployed, however, have shifted. Many pro-Brexit figures now readily admit that economic problems are a byproduct, at least for now. Instead of economic boosterism, three broad arguments are deployed: that it is too early to judge Brexit, that it has been implemented badly and that Brexit was only ever a question of sovereignty.
Lord Moylan, a Tory peer and former adviser to Boris Johnson, says an economic hit should come as no surprise. “The negotiations were appallingly handled, but as far as Great Britain is concerned, Brexit is now complete,” he says.
Yet the problems emerging with the current Brexit settlement also heap pressure on Keir Starmer and Labour. While the Labour leader has talked about taking on the “Brexit purity cult” in the Tory party, greater evidence of economic damage will increase pressure on him to bring the UK closer to the EU. That risks undoing his largely successful drive to steer his party away from the Brexit splits that caused such problems for Labour at the least election.
It all allows Barnier to adopt a more-in-sorrow-than-anger tone as he surveys the continuing fallout, but he adds a warning for remainers who hope that one day an EU return could be contemplated. The further the two parties drift apart, the harder any return will become.
“I wish the best for the UK, sincerely,” he says. “I admire this country, with respect for many of the UK’s leaders – first of all, Winston Churchill. I admire the culture of the UK, the capacity to play a role in the world. But Brexit is a lose-lose game … [it] has been, is and will remain a lose-lose game.
“The door is open. The difficulty could be that the gap is created, starting from now into the future in our regulations. If there is too large a divergence, it could be more difficult. But once again, this is a choice for the UK.”
Never BJ's Brexit, of course.
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/trade-down-economy-sinking-support-falling-is-the-tide-finally-turning-on-brexit/ar-AA177yB9?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=1134dece8f02402fb867a18dff7b2caf
extracts:
Trade down, economy sinking, support falling: is the tide finally turning on Brexit?
Story by Michael Savage and Toby Helm
Throughout the turbulent years that Michel Barnier spent dealing with Brexit, the former EU negotiator’s endless talks with British counterparts failed to help him answer the simplest of questions – what did they want Brexit to achieve?
“For me, for many of us, Brexit remains a nonsense,” he told the Observer. “Taking into account British national interest, there is no added value to being outside the single market and the customs union. Throughout this process, I asked British leaders every day –from all the parties, [Nigel] Farage, trade unions or the business community – to give me proof for the added value of Brexit. Nobody was able to do this.”
The clock has now ticked on three years. Barnier is struck by the difference in the debate between the UK and the rest of the continent. “To be frank, coming back to London, I see that Brexit is always on the front page,” he says. “There are many questions and many polls, but it’s not the case in the EU. Brexit is no longer a problem for us. We have turned the page.”
Others who voted for Brexit talked of incompetent ministers or a failure of the ruling elite to “get behind” the concept. As if to bring home the realities of life outside the bloc, Brexit’s anniversary celebrations coincided with a warning from the International Monetary Fund that Britain will be the only major industrialised country to see its economy shrink this year – and perform even worse than sanctions-hit Russia.
So, three years after Britain’s EU departure, is the country coming to the same conclusion about the benefits of Brexit that figures like Barnier expressed from the start?
Pollsters do now suggest that around one in five leave voters have changed their minds. Over the past few months, the proportion of voters who want to rejoin the EU has risen to about 58%, while the proportion of those wanting to stay out has fallen to around 42%.
Behind the shift, according to analysts, is evidence that voters have become more negative about the economic effects of Brexit, both on the country and on their own personal finances. As recently as 2021, more people thought Brexit would have a beneficial economic effect, whereas the net figure is now -27%. The IMF’s missive last week added grist to that mill.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said other countries were not being affected to the same extent as the UK by shortages of labour. The UK labour force, he said, had half a million fewer people than before the pandemic, as a result of people retiring early and fewer EU immigrants. “That’s not affecting any other country in Europe … it’s a particular challenge for us,” he said. The continuing “challenges from Brexit” and the rapid impact of higher interest rates on mortgage costs were also factors, he said.
Research by the Centre for European Reform (CER) in December showed that Britain’s economy was 5.5% smaller than it would have been had it remained inside the EU. The UK’s goods trade was 7% lower, and investment 11% down on what it would have been had the remain campaign won in 2016. The Office for Budget Responsibility stands by a prediction that Brexit will cause a long hit to GDP per capita of 4%. Pro-Brexit economic arguments have become thin on the ground.
As UK public opinion turns, the attractiveness to voters in other member states of their nations quitting the EU, which rose around the time of the referendum in 2016, has declined markedly. The European Social Survey (ESS), led by City, University of London, found respondents were less likely to want to leave than in 2016-17 in every EU member state for which data was available.
While boasts of Brexit’s positive economic impact have subsided, it would be wrong to say that prominent Brexiters have had a change of heart. The arguments deployed, however, have shifted. Many pro-Brexit figures now readily admit that economic problems are a byproduct, at least for now. Instead of economic boosterism, three broad arguments are deployed: that it is too early to judge Brexit, that it has been implemented badly and that Brexit was only ever a question of sovereignty.
Lord Moylan, a Tory peer and former adviser to Boris Johnson, says an economic hit should come as no surprise. “The negotiations were appallingly handled, but as far as Great Britain is concerned, Brexit is now complete,” he says.
Yet the problems emerging with the current Brexit settlement also heap pressure on Keir Starmer and Labour. While the Labour leader has talked about taking on the “Brexit purity cult” in the Tory party, greater evidence of economic damage will increase pressure on him to bring the UK closer to the EU. That risks undoing his largely successful drive to steer his party away from the Brexit splits that caused such problems for Labour at the least election.
It all allows Barnier to adopt a more-in-sorrow-than-anger tone as he surveys the continuing fallout, but he adds a warning for remainers who hope that one day an EU return could be contemplated. The further the two parties drift apart, the harder any return will become.
“I wish the best for the UK, sincerely,” he says. “I admire this country, with respect for many of the UK’s leaders – first of all, Winston Churchill. I admire the culture of the UK, the capacity to play a role in the world. But Brexit is a lose-lose game … [it] has been, is and will remain a lose-lose game.
“The door is open. The difficulty could be that the gap is created, starting from now into the future in our regulations. If there is too large a divergence, it could be more difficult. But once again, this is a choice for the UK.”
