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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 8, 2023 16:39:39 GMT
So your example is one retired scientist banned by youtube? I was hoping for a large list of at least a few thousand scientists crying out that they have been dismissed by their institute for producing evidence that climate change is fake. (Incidentally, Judith Curry does not deny AGW. ) Your second two sentences talk of corrupt governments, not 1st world scientific institutes and then only speculation. And why is the bar lower for your speculation than you hold it for those presenting evidence of climate change. You can speculate this is happening but without better evidence I will go with the theory that has the most evidence to support it, I.E AGW. Once again I find your argument is that we should not be held responsible for our history, but where that history still effects the present then yes I do think we as a nation have some responsibility. Why do you keep saying that people are denialists. They are not denying, I am not denying and most people are quite clear in their comments that AGW is an effect, it is just to what level it is an effect. Could perhaps get this right this time Let us see, she is a climatologist, she was well respected and you said they do not exist. All I needed was one to refute that comment. However try Bjorn Lomberg, Kiminori Itoh, Ivar Giaever and Will Happer. Perhaps you can show the most evidence to support that AGW is a direct danger, that evidence, uncontested, is a bit thin on the ground. You are becoming confused between AGW existing and the level of danger it represents to us all. If responsibility for history is the name of the game then that should apply to all across the board with no let offs. What you want is us to be responsible alone and the upshot is you wish me and mine to take second place in training and employment, you wish me and mine to pay reparations for slavery, you wish me and mine to compensate those suffering from theoretical climate change. If taking responsibility for one's history is your expectation what reparations would you expect Islam, by way of the worldwide Ummah, to pay? Will Harper's views seem to be suspect. Here is the wiki page we see him state things without backup.
"Some small fraction" (ever heard of a number Happer?)
"probably" (how probable - again - remind you scientists deal in numbers)
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Post by zanygame on Jan 8, 2023 16:49:31 GMT
That is just moving the goal posts a few feet. A denier moving from 'its not happening' to 'Its not man made' to 'it is manmade but wont be as bad as they say' to 'we don't know how bad it will be so we should do nothing until its happened' All are deniers to me No, I asked for evidence of multiple scientists (in fact the whole climatologist community) being coerced into agreeing with AGW. This against the claim that the 90% plus figure of those who support AGW is false. What do you mean by a direct danger? Like its going to eat us all or the planet will explode?? There is no direct danger of that sort, there is danger to life from stronger storms etc but the real concern is rapid change and its costs both in terms of infrastructure, food supply and damage to nature. My personal argument is that the cost of adapting to the changes will considerably outweigh the cost of changing how we make energy and products. The all or nothing argument which never reflects reality. But is used as an excuse for doing nothing about anything. If you think the NHS is underfunded you should give away all your money and live in a cage. If you want to help battered wives you should also help battered husbands, battered dogs, cats, gerbils. Or help no one. Stupid argument not worth addressing. However if you made your money from county lines drug selling (assuming you are reformed) you might expect to contribute to a drugs rehabilitation program. Do you feel you do not have any responsibility for the things you have done? So I ask again where is the evidence that AGW represents some form of danger to us and the planet. You say it is there but where is it? I have responsibility for what I have done, why would you think I have a responsibility for what others have done? Well I'd like you to answer my question first, )where are these thousands of scientists dismissed to persuade the rest of the worlds entire scientific community to fall in line and lie about climate change.) instead of ignoring it and skipping onto your own. Are you a politician?
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Post by Toreador on Jan 8, 2023 16:50:49 GMT
Just remember I went to high school and you didn't. That was because I passed the 11-plus and at a time when it wasn't as diluted as when you took it. Yes I'll try to remember when your education ended, thanks for reminding me. Did yours ever start?
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Post by sandypine on Jan 8, 2023 16:52:27 GMT
Why do you keep saying that people are denialists. They are not denying, I am not denying and most people are quite clear in their comments that AGW is an effect, it is just to what level it is an effect. Could perhaps get this right this time Let us see, she is a climatologist, she was well respected and you said they do not exist. All I needed was one to refute that comment. However try Bjorn Lomberg, Kiminori Itoh, Ivar Giaever and Will Happer. Perhaps you can show the most evidence to support that AGW is a direct danger, that evidence, uncontested, is a bit thin on the ground. You are becoming confused between AGW existing and the level of danger it represents to us all. If responsibility for history is the name of the game then that should apply to all across the board with no let offs. What you want is us to be responsible alone and the upshot is you wish me and mine to take second place in training and employment, you wish me and mine to pay reparations for slavery, you wish me and mine to compensate those suffering from theoretical climate change. If taking responsibility for one's history is your expectation what reparations would you expect Islam, by way of the worldwide Ummah, to pay? Will Harper's views seem to be suspect. Here is the wiki page we see him state things without backup.
"Some small fraction" (ever heard of a number Happer?)
"probably" (how probable - again - remind you scientists deal in numbers)
Most scientist do deal in numbers, the problem of course is that once they present a number it ends up being shown to be wrong. The IPCC reports dealt in many numbers and most have not stood the test of time. I would tend to agree with Happer, some small fraction seems about right as that tends to illustrate its inconsequential nature. Probably is fine in Climate science as the models all indicate probabilities, possibilities, likelihoods and maybes. No way to run science but then it largely is not science it is politics and that is why it is driven by politicians who cannot resist the opportunities that science obliquely presents them with.
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Post by zanygame on Jan 8, 2023 16:54:30 GMT
Yes I'll try to remember when your education ended, thanks for reminding me. Did yours ever start? Same old Sally. Nothing to say. I'll skip it thanks.
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Post by sandypine on Jan 8, 2023 17:05:34 GMT
So I ask again where is the evidence that AGW represents some form of danger to us and the planet. You say it is there but where is it? I have responsibility for what I have done, why would you think I have a responsibility for what others have done? Well I'd like you to answer my question first, )where are these thousands of scientists dismissed to persuade the rest of the worlds entire scientific community to fall in line and lie about climate change.) instead of ignoring it and skipping onto your own. Are you a politician? Well I did ask first several posts ago. I did give you a list that you seem unhappy with and you still have not said where the evidence is that AGW is a threat to us all. I can give you a clue I cannot find it, most sceptics cannot find it and it seems those who believe it implicitly cannot find it either. Which seems strange as it is the very basis of your demands that I curtail my carbon footprint along with everyone else in the country. Since that is your clear demand it seems only fair that you present a cogent reason why I should.
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Post by zanygame on Jan 8, 2023 17:39:13 GMT
Well I'd like you to answer my question first, )where are these thousands of scientists dismissed to persuade the rest of the worlds entire scientific community to fall in line and lie about climate change.) instead of ignoring it and skipping onto your own. Are you a politician? Well I did ask first several posts ago. I did give you a list that you seem unhappy with and you still have not said where the evidence is that AGW is a threat to us all. I can give you a clue I cannot find it, most sceptics cannot find it and it seems those who believe it implicitly cannot find it either. Which seems strange as it is the very basis of your demands that I curtail my carbon footprint along with everyone else in the country. Since that is your clear demand it seems only fair that you present a cogent reason why I should. Tiresome games again, why does nobody ever play fair on here. Sigh. You invented the idea of a direct danger. That was YOU I never suggested a direct threat, I even asked you what one was. So how can I give you an example of something you invented. I gave you the nearest answer I could, this. "There is no direct danger of that sort, there is danger to life from stronger storms etc but the real concern is rapid change and its costs both in terms of infrastructure, food supply and damage to nature. My personal argument is that the cost of adapting to the changes will considerably outweigh the cost of changing how we make energy and products."
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 8, 2023 17:57:40 GMT
Will Harper's views seem to be suspect. Here is the wiki page we see him state things without backup.
"Some small fraction" (ever heard of a number Happer?)
"probably" (how probable - again - remind you scientists deal in numbers)
Most scientist do deal in numbers, the problem of course is that once they present a number it ends up being shown to be wrong. The IPCC reports dealt in many numbers and most have not stood the test of time. I would tend to agree with Happer, some small fraction seems about right as that tends to illustrate its inconsequential nature. Probably is fine in Climate science as the models all indicate probabilities, possibilities, likelihoods and maybes. No way to run science but then it largely is not science it is politics and that is why it is driven by politicians who cannot resist the opportunities that science obliquely presents them with. I've already suggested a scientific approach here. You use satellites and weather balloons to take samples of atmospheric gases and you see how these vary over time. The equipment you use has been calibrated to a certain accuracy. Some of the best physics lab equipment can measure to many significant figures so your survey would be sensitive to the smallest of changes. With a global 3D survey of gas concentrations you can run a simulation of the overall reflectivity and absorption vs wavelength and compute the global warming effect from additional man-made emissions over time. You can carry all your errors over to give an overall error in your figure. This is how the pros do it. This is how I was trained to do it as well because I went to an old school university where they were meticulous. Now of course if Happer has already done all of this he can give us a talk on how he did it and what he found out. If he can't then all he has is his opinion. This is what we are looking at. Scientists are never persuaded by opinion though. It leaves the jury still out until we have quantitive investigations which are generally peer-reviewed, but a word of warning, peer review is no guarantee. You are supposed to read it and perform your own peer review.
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Post by sandypine on Jan 8, 2023 18:52:12 GMT
Well I did ask first several posts ago. I did give you a list that you seem unhappy with and you still have not said where the evidence is that AGW is a threat to us all. I can give you a clue I cannot find it, most sceptics cannot find it and it seems those who believe it implicitly cannot find it either. Which seems strange as it is the very basis of your demands that I curtail my carbon footprint along with everyone else in the country. Since that is your clear demand it seems only fair that you present a cogent reason why I should. Tiresome games again, why does nobody ever play fair on here. Sigh. You invented the idea of a direct danger. That was YOU I never suggested a direct threat, I even asked you what one was. So how can I give you an example of something you invented. I gave you the nearest answer I could, this. "There is no direct danger of that sort, there is danger to life from stronger storms etc but the real concern is rapid change and its costs both in terms of infrastructure, food supply and damage to nature. My personal argument is that the cost of adapting to the changes will considerably outweigh the cost of changing how we make energy and products." So we are clear, it is not a real danger. I gave you several scientists that you just dismissed and I do not intend to seek out thousands of individual cases as we know from your own comments how they are viewed as a generality, 'denialists' is a dismissive term and used often within the discussions, now why would that be? I have not invented the fact that we are being asked to do something that will cost a lot of money and cause a lot of hardship that may, and I repeat may, need to be done to save the planet from our worst excesses. Yet the evidence to show that we should take action is not only not there but also the past 'evidence' by way of models is being disproven as we speak. Also the rate of increase of warming has slowed down in 2022 despite the increase in CO2 which also flies in the face of the climate catastrophism narrative. The whole edifice is falling apart yet demands to change are still being made. Of course we should seek alternative fuel sources and consider our energy position for the future but what we are doing is an unnecessary panic. The point is that the changes are beyond our control and there is no evidence to show that it is within our control so we have to adapt as that is the nature of the planet. You have quoted stronger storms now have you evidence for that, I have posted that last season was very quiet in terms of ACE
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Post by sandypine on Jan 8, 2023 19:01:09 GMT
Most scientist do deal in numbers, the problem of course is that once they present a number it ends up being shown to be wrong. The IPCC reports dealt in many numbers and most have not stood the test of time. I would tend to agree with Happer, some small fraction seems about right as that tends to illustrate its inconsequential nature. Probably is fine in Climate science as the models all indicate probabilities, possibilities, likelihoods and maybes. No way to run science but then it largely is not science it is politics and that is why it is driven by politicians who cannot resist the opportunities that science obliquely presents them with. I've already suggested a scientific approach here. You use satellites and weather balloons to take samples of atmospheric gases and you see how these vary over time. The equipment you use has been calibrated to a certain accuracy. Some of the best physics lab equipment can measure to many significant figures so your survey would be sensitive to the smallest of changes. With a global 3D survey of gas concentrations you can run a simulation of the overall reflectivity and absorption vs wavelength and compute the global warming effect from additional man-made emissions over time. You can carry all your errors over to give an overall error in your figure. This is how the pros do it. This is how I was trained to do it as well because I went to an old school university where they were meticulous. Now of course if Happer has already done all of this he can give us a talk on how he did it and what he found out. If he can't then all he has is his opinion. This is what we are looking at. Scientists are never persuaded by opinion though. It leaves the jury still out until we have quantitive investigations which are generally peer-reviewed, but a word of warning, peer review is no guarantee. You are supposed to read it and perform your own peer review. THis is part of the problem I have no idea what Happer did but we do know what Mann did and how he refused to release the data for his hockey stick so that others could repeat it. Some had to laboriously go back to the original data and repeat all the calcs and came up with a totally different result to Mann. Climate 'science' is now littered with this type of double dealing. Using the official data it is now clear we are in a long pause, we have had a previous long pause recently and the rate of increase of warming is slowing despite CO2 continuing its relentless rise. This is contrary to the IPCC predictions contained in the latest report.
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Post by zanygame on Jan 8, 2023 19:15:00 GMT
Tiresome games again, why does nobody ever play fair on here. Sigh. You invented the idea of a direct danger. That was YOU I never suggested a direct threat, I even asked you what one was. So how can I give you an example of something you invented. I gave you the nearest answer I could, this. "There is no direct danger of that sort, there is danger to life from stronger storms etc but the real concern is rapid change and its costs both in terms of infrastructure, food supply and damage to nature. My personal argument is that the cost of adapting to the changes will considerably outweigh the cost of changing how we make energy and products." So we are clear, it is not a real danger. I gave you several scientists that you just dismissed and I do not intend to seek out thousands of individual cases as we know from your own comments how they are viewed as a generality, 'denialists' is a dismissive term and used often within the discussions, now why would that be? I have not invented the fact that we are being asked to do something that will cost a lot of money and cause a lot of hardship that may, and I repeat may, need to be done to save the planet from our worst excesses. Yet the evidence to show that we should take action is not only not there but also the past 'evidence' by way of models is being disproven as we speak. Also the rate of increase of warming has slowed down in 2022 despite the increase in CO2 which also flies in the face of the climate catastrophism narrative. The whole edifice is falling apart yet demands to change are still being made. Of course we should seek alternative fuel sources and consider our energy position for the future but what we are doing is an unnecessary panic. The point is that the changes are beyond our control and there is no evidence to show that it is within our control so we have to adapt as that is the nature of the planet. You have quoted stronger storms now have you evidence for that, I have posted that last season was very quiet in terms of ACE The reason you wont give me a list of scientists is nothing to do with my lack of acceptance, its because they don't exist. There is no conspiracy to invent global warming. No massive group of subservient scientists willing to lie for their salary. Yes warming slowed in 2022, the sun started a solar maunder, why do you only look up stuff that supports your argument and not keep up with the changing science as it develops? There is present danger, storms are increasing in strength, same with droughts and other extreme weather conditions. Our weather is moving but we cannot move with it. www.scientificamerican.com/article/even-weak-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger-as-the-climate-warms/#:~:text=The%20new%20study%20adds%20a,storms%20all%20over%20the%20world. www.nasa.gov/feature/are-hurricanes-getting-stronger-we-asked-a-nasa-scientist-episode-21time.com/6218869/why-atlantic-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger/
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jan 8, 2023 21:12:47 GMT
I've already suggested a scientific approach here. You use satellites and weather balloons to take samples of atmospheric gases and you see how these vary over time. The equipment you use has been calibrated to a certain accuracy. Some of the best physics lab equipment can measure to many significant figures so your survey would be sensitive to the smallest of changes. With a global 3D survey of gas concentrations you can run a simulation of the overall reflectivity and absorption vs wavelength and compute the global warming effect from additional man-made emissions over time. You can carry all your errors over to give an overall error in your figure. This is how the pros do it. This is how I was trained to do it as well because I went to an old school university where they were meticulous. Now of course if Happer has already done all of this he can give us a talk on how he did it and what he found out. If he can't then all he has is his opinion. This is what we are looking at. Scientists are never persuaded by opinion though. It leaves the jury still out until we have quantitive investigations which are generally peer-reviewed, but a word of warning, peer review is no guarantee. You are supposed to read it and perform your own peer review. THis is part of the problem I have no idea what Happer did but we do know what Mann did and how he refused to release the data for his hockey stick so that others could repeat it. Some had to laboriously go back to the original data and repeat all the calcs and came up with a totally different result to Mann. Climate 'science' is now littered with this type of double dealing. Using the official data it is now clear we are in a long pause, we have had a previous long pause recently and the rate of increase of warming is slowing despite CO2 continuing its relentless rise. This is contrary to the IPCC predictions contained in the latest report. Happer was an expert in adaptive optics. It's a branch of engineering, like say you have a radio telescope, you can electronically adjust the optics to get a higher quality image to correct for distortions. This is the thing in academia - you are in a very narrow specialism so you know everything there is to know about a very small bit of science. For the rest you'll likely know as much as any other graduate on your degree course. To actually compute the effects of these various gasses is doable, but you would need to be a quantum mechanic and then you would need to compute all that so you would need guys in the HPC department to set that up. It's big science like how it is at CERN with thousands of researchers. Happer is not even a so-called climate scientist. Yes I know that description can include total dunces of scientists, but at the international level you will get the top universities. I personally do not have a lot of confidence in British science. They do better in America and just recently I've started to see some really good science form the Far East as well. We're a nation in decline.
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Post by Toreador on Jan 8, 2023 22:45:37 GMT
So we are clear, it is not a real danger. I gave you several scientists that you just dismissed and I do not intend to seek out thousands of individual cases as we know from your own comments how they are viewed as a generality, 'denialists' is a dismissive term and used often within the discussions, now why would that be? I have not invented the fact that we are being asked to do something that will cost a lot of money and cause a lot of hardship that may, and I repeat may, need to be done to save the planet from our worst excesses. Yet the evidence to show that we should take action is not only not there but also the past 'evidence' by way of models is being disproven as we speak. Also the rate of increase of warming has slowed down in 2022 despite the increase in CO2 which also flies in the face of the climate catastrophism narrative. The whole edifice is falling apart yet demands to change are still being made. Of course we should seek alternative fuel sources and consider our energy position for the future but what we are doing is an unnecessary panic. The point is that the changes are beyond our control and there is no evidence to show that it is within our control so we have to adapt as that is the nature of the planet. You have quoted stronger storms now have you evidence for that, I have posted that last season was very quiet in terms of ACE The reason you wont give me a list of scientists is nothing to do with my lack of acceptance, its because they don't exist. There is no conspiracy to invent global warming.No massive group of subservient scientists willing to lie for their salary. Yes warming slowed in 2022, the sun started a solar maunder, why do you only look up stuff that supports your argument and not keep up with the changing science as it develops? There is present danger, storms are increasing in strength, same with droughts and other extreme weather conditions. Our weather is moving but we cannot move with it. www.scientificamerican.com/article/even-weak-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger-as-the-climate-warms/#:~:text=The%20new%20study%20adds%20a,storms%20all%20over%20the%20world. www.nasa.gov/feature/are-hurricanes-getting-stronger-we-asked-a-nasa-scientist-episode-21time.com/6218869/why-atlantic-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger/ Is there a conspiracy to apportion blame for global warming?
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Post by steppenwolf on Jan 9, 2023 8:46:27 GMT
Bur both CO2 and urban areas trap heat. And no heat is localised. And urban heat islands are not necessarily small areas - look at the pictures of Earth taken from space or by satellite. The expansion of urban areas is incredible. Also you have to consider that urban areas are very much warmer than rural ones - up to 10C hotter given a similar location. Yet we're asked to believe that this effect is insignificant by the climate change bodies. Do you mean urban areas trap heat in their structures? If so I agree, but would point out that this trapped heat has no measurable effect on earths weather. This is because its trapped away from the atmosphere. Do you ever think about the nonsense you write Zanygame? Plainly the heat trapped by structures DOES have an effect on the Earth's weather because urban areas are significantly hotter than urban areas. When "structures" (like buildings etc) are warmed up by the Sun that heat gradually escapes into the atmosphere and warms up the air. So in what way is it different from heat that is trapped by CO2 which also warms up the air? And the "extreme weather events" that you talk about (like hurricanes for example) are fed by this heat - that's where they get their energy from. However, you need to be careful about exaggerating the increase in extreme weather events. I remember a "More or Less" report on this which found little evidence that they had become more common. In fact they found that in many cases the amount of damage done by a "weather event" was being used as a measure of the strength of the event, when this mainly related to the amount of property damaged - and was often caused by building in the wrong place (flood plains for example). Basically measuring the severity of a weather event by the cost of the damage done is not very sensible. And droughts in the UK are exacerbated by our water companies selling off reservoirs. Etc. And you've never provided a source for your claim that 95% of scientists think that CO2 is the primary cause of global warming. When did this survey take place?
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Post by sandypine on Jan 9, 2023 8:56:03 GMT
So we are clear, it is not a real danger. I gave you several scientists that you just dismissed and I do not intend to seek out thousands of individual cases as we know from your own comments how they are viewed as a generality, 'denialists' is a dismissive term and used often within the discussions, now why would that be? I have not invented the fact that we are being asked to do something that will cost a lot of money and cause a lot of hardship that may, and I repeat may, need to be done to save the planet from our worst excesses. Yet the evidence to show that we should take action is not only not there but also the past 'evidence' by way of models is being disproven as we speak. Also the rate of increase of warming has slowed down in 2022 despite the increase in CO2 which also flies in the face of the climate catastrophism narrative. The whole edifice is falling apart yet demands to change are still being made. Of course we should seek alternative fuel sources and consider our energy position for the future but what we are doing is an unnecessary panic. The point is that the changes are beyond our control and there is no evidence to show that it is within our control so we have to adapt as that is the nature of the planet. You have quoted stronger storms now have you evidence for that, I have posted that last season was very quiet in terms of ACE The reason you wont give me a list of scientists is nothing to do with my lack of acceptance, its because they don't exist. There is no conspiracy to invent global warming. No massive group of subservient scientists willing to lie for their salary. Yes warming slowed in 2022, the sun started a solar maunder, why do you only look up stuff that supports your argument and not keep up with the changing science as it develops? There is present danger, storms are increasing in strength, same with droughts and other extreme weather conditions. Our weather is moving but we cannot move with it. www.scientificamerican.com/article/even-weak-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger-as-the-climate-warms/#:~:text=The%20new%20study%20adds%20a,storms%20all%20over%20the%20world. www.nasa.gov/feature/are-hurricanes-getting-stronger-we-asked-a-nasa-scientist-episode-21time.com/6218869/why-atlantic-hurricanes-are-getting-stronger/ The changing science you have just linked to presented little or no evidence. There was new research not on major storms which are supposed to be becoming more frequent, more damaging and stronger with every passing year yet two of your links did not present evidence they just said it is becasue of global warming which is not evidence. At least I can point to the ACE data which shows clearly that 2022 was a quiet year overall for storms and that is official. Where is the evidence droughts are happening becasue of global warming, the droughts being suffered are clear natural events previously recorded in earlier data. The drought and the hardship in Somalia disappears at the Kenyan border. Since weather does not consider in detail national boundaries then what is happening seems to have a political rather than a weather related cause. Which other extreme weather conditions are becoming worse? The rainfall in Pakistan is consistent with weather records going back 150 years and was not an event that had not occurred before, no new extreme conditions recorded recorded. Most developing countries will be whole heartedly on board with climate change becasue there is money involved and everything that goes wrong will be attributed to climate change and the fault of everyone else. As regards scientists (and anyone else) I once again refer you to your own language, which is used widely in politics and everywhere else.
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