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Post by sandypine on Apr 8, 2024 14:19:01 GMT
'We know precisely'? Have you links to what is 'normal' and where the speed of change is increasing? Was the Little ice age normal? Was the MWP normal. Were 1934, 1947 and 1976 Normal? We are currently seeing global temperature records being broken month after month and year after year. This has never happened before, in the whole of the time we have detailed measurements for (which is over 10,000 years). Yes, the little ice age was within the range of normal. Average temperatures dropped for a long while, probably because of a combination of different factors working together. But at no point during that whole period of about 500 years was the global temperature changing at anything like the rate it is currently. It was much slower. I don't know where you are getting your information from, but the reality is that what has actually happened is much closer to the worst case scenario projections than to what climatologists forecast as most likely. Climate change is not just happening faster than people feared -- it is happening much faster. Good question. In order to meaningfully limit climate change we would need to completely restructure our economy, and politics as we know it would cease to exist. We would have to accept growth has to end, for example, and that would have massive implications for capitalism and the existing monetary system. The most appropriate concept is "Ecocivilisation". See: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_civilizationThat is what is needed to make civilisation sustainable. Our problem is that it is politically impossible to get there from where we are via normal political processes, because nothing like enough of the general public would be willing to accept the changes. And that includes not just the right but the left and most of the mainstream environmental movement. The right can't accept that growth has to end, and the left can't accept that we cannot save 8 billion humans and must concentrate on national sustainability. My conclusion is that civilisation as we know it is going to come to a disorderly end (aka "collapse") but that humans will survive the coming eco-apocalypse and we need to think about what an ecocivilisation might actually look like, and how we might get from here to there. When people finally realise that their own survival is on the line, maybe they'll be more willing to face reality. Do you have a link to the temperature data that indicates what you say? The temperature data that may indicate this has many questions as regards its accuracy, the accuracy of any corrections factors and the accuracy of the model upon which it is based. The same goes for the acceleration data. Just saying it does not make it so. The US readings from the NOAA pristine stations in use since 2005 indicate no trend at all unless correction factors are applied and even then the trend upwards is at best slight. Facing reality is not a problem it is deciding what reality is that is the principle problem and strange as it may seem opinions vary.
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Post by sandypine on Apr 8, 2024 14:32:24 GMT
Sorry but there is no scientific evidence that man-made CO2 is the "predominant cause of global warming". None at all. There is evidence that CO2 is a (weak) greenhouse gas and that we have increased the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere but any attempts that have been made to provide correlation with average global temperatures have failed. The IPCC has been forced to resort to changing the data - remember the "pause" in global warming which was removed by deleting data that was too low? And which also removed the ETCW which caused a larger spike in warming than the current one but with no increase in CO2. Moreover any attempts to empirically show warming on Earth (by artificially raising CO2 in an area) have failed to show any. I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is disinformation of the highest order. It has got nothing to do with any actual science. It is politically-motivated nonsense, and 99.9% of climate scientists would agree with me. I get that you completely believe what you are saying, and hold out no hope whatsoever of being able to help you understand what is really going on, but the bottom line is that the actual scientists involved in this work, if you asked them, would tell you that you do not understand the science. All of them. Where do you get your information from, just out of interest? Right wing American sources? Ah the 99.9% consensus again. Have you a link to the data that confirms the 99.9%. If it is Cook et al then that research has been discussed and generally rejected as a true indication of any consensus if one looks at the methodology in detail. Apparently some 1000 scientists have little faith in the AGW narrative and have signed documents to that effect. Remember no one is saying earth is not warming what is being clearly said is that attributing that warming to man as the primary driver of that change is neither proven or provable in the science research so far and that an emergency does not exist.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2024 17:01:49 GMT
It seems no one can remember what the argument is about - for more than a few seconds. The argument is about the claims that the predominant cause of warming is man-made CO2 - when there is absolutely no evidence to prove that CO2 causes warming in the Earth's system. If the claim was that the predominant cause of warming (such as there is) is caused by the changes that man has made to the planet to support a near 8-fold increase in population (from 1 billion to 8 billion) I wouldn't be arguing. There's plenty of evidence to support that. There really isn't any scientific question about this at all. The science that shows that most of the current warming is caused by CO2 is every bit as secure as the science that shows amphibians evolved from fish or that venus rotates backwards. In other words, there is no genuine debate about this topic within the relevant part of the scientific community. There are all sorts of other questions, especially about why climatologists have apparently underestimated the rate of warming, but no question at all that there is a direct causal link between CO2 emissions and global warming.Yes, there are also other factors in play, and yes you may well argue that overpopulation is an even more fundamental problem than climate change. However, overpopulation is a problem that is likely to rectify itself eventually. There won't be 8 billion humans left after 4 degrees of warming. How interesting. You compare one unreliable theory with another. You know Darwinism is an unproven theory, don't you? You know that CO2 being responsible for global warming is an unproven theory, right? I agree that Venus rotation is retrograde, but it is not backwards. It is simply in the opposite direction to most. Suppose we warm up 4 degrees Celsius? How many of the 8 billion will that kill, and how?
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 17:32:00 GMT
There really isn't any scientific question about this at all. The science that shows that most of the current warming is caused by CO2 is every bit as secure as the science that shows amphibians evolved from fish or that venus rotates backwards. In other words, there is no genuine debate about this topic within the relevant part of the scientific community. There are all sorts of other questions, especially about why climatologists have apparently underestimated the rate of warming, but no question at all that there is a direct causal link between CO2 emissions and global warming.Yes, there are also other factors in play, and yes you may well argue that overpopulation is an even more fundamental problem than climate change. However, overpopulation is a problem that is likely to rectify itself eventually. There won't be 8 billion humans left after 4 degrees of warming. How interesting. You compare one unreliable theory with another. You know Darwinism is an unproven theory, don't you? That depends what you mean by "Darwinism". To make it simpler, we could take just two fundamental components of evolutionary theory: common descent and natural selection. These two are absolutely proven, without no justification for being skeptical. Amphibians are descended from fish, for example. The probability of this claim turning out to be false is zero. It can't happen, because there's so much direct evidence to support it and that the only way it could be falsified is if the whole of natural science were to be falsified. And that just isn't going to happen. Natural selection is also unassailable because there's no conceivable way it can't be true -- if a mother duck starts out with 15 ducklings and only one survived, it surely isn't random which one survived. Or rather, it isn't random which ones didn't survive -- they weren't all born equal, and any with physical defects aren't going to last very long. That is how natural selection works. If you extend it to the whole of neo-Darwinism, including its materialistic context, then there are much bigger question marks. In fact I'd say that theory has conclusively been proven false, not because natural selection or common descent aren't true, but because metaphysical materialism is incoherent. But that's not actually science -- it's bad metaphysics that science is having trouble getting over. See: www.amazon.co.uk/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755I know it is absolutely a proven theory. I actually associate with climate scientists, in real life. None of them agree with you. You do realise that, right? You are saying the entire scientific community is wrong about something scientific, but your non-scientific sources (or your own thinking, I don't know) has got the science right. That is possibly the most important question that the whole world should be talking about, especially people who want to maximise their chances of survival, and those of their families, communities and nations. Natural selection will apply, but it is likely to apply as much at the group level as it does at the individual level. It's no use if you yourself make wise decisions, but you're living in a community or nation which makes bad ones. And for many people they have no chance anyway, because their nation is in a very poor location. The UK is one of the best places we could be -- we're an island (so have defensible borders) and we are far enough north to remain habitable even after 4 degrees of rise. Our biggest problem as a nation, from this POV, is overpopulation. We can't rely on global markets, and we can't feed ourselves. That is why we need to be asking these questions now -- letting more immigrants in in a futile, counter-productive search for economic growth is a terrible idea from this POV. What we actually need to do is try to get net immigration down to zero and become as self-sufficient as possible in critical things such as food and energy. I am not sure there is much point in predicting numbers who will survive, but I have been asked that question hundreds of times over the years and discussed it as many. I'd say the best case scenario would see 2 to 3 billion still alive when the dying stops, but that really is being optimistic. Far more likely we are talking fewer than one billion, and in the worst case scenario is down in the tens of millions, scraping out an existence on both polar coastlines. See my avatar. That's Antarctica.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2024 17:40:43 GMT
How interesting. You compare one unreliable theory with another. You know Darwinism is an unproven theory, don't you? That depends what you mean by "Darwinism". To make it simpler, we could take just two fundamental components of evolutionary theory: common descent and natural selection. These two are absolutely proven, without no justification for being skeptical. Amphibians are descended from fish, for example. The probability of this claim turning out to be false is zero. It can't happen, because there's so much direct evidence to support it and that the only way it could be falsified is if the whole of natural science were to be falsified. And that just isn't going to happen. Natural selection is also unassailable because there's no conceivable way it can't be true -- if a mother duck starts out with 15 ducklings and only one survived, it surely isn't random which one survived. Or rather, it isn't random which ones didn't survive -- they weren't all born equal, and any with physical defects aren't going to last very long. That is how natural selection works. If you extend it to the whole of neo-Darwinism, including its materialistic context, then there are much bigger question marks. In fact I'd say that theory has conclusively been proven false, not because natural selection or common descent aren't true, but because metaphysical materialism is incoherent. But that's not actually science -- it's bad metaphysics that science is having trouble getting over. See: www.amazon.co.uk/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755I know it is absolutely a proven theory. I actually associate with climate scientists, in real life. None of them agree with you. You do realise that, right? You are saying the entire scientific community is wrong about something scientific, but your non-scientific sources (or your own thinking, I don't know) has got the science right. That is possibly the most important question that the whole world should be talking about, especially people who want to maximise their chances of survival, and those of their families, communities and nations. Natural selection will apply, but it is likely to apply as much at the group level as it does at the individual level. It's no use if you yourself make wise decisions, but you're living in a community or nation which makes bad ones. And for many people they have no chance anyway, because their nation is in a very poor location. The UK is one of the best places we could be -- we're an island (so have defensible borders) and we are far enough north to remain habitable even after 4 degrees of rise. Our biggest problem as a nation, from this POV, is overpopulation. We can't rely on global markets, and we can't feed ourselves. That is why we need to be asking these questions now -- letting more immigrants in in a futile, counter-productive search for economic growth is a terrible idea from this POV. What we actually need to do is try to get net immigration down to zero and become as self-sufficient as possible in critical things such as food and energy. I am not sure there is much point in predicting numbers who will survive, but I have been asked that question hundreds of times over the years and discussed it as many. I'd say the best case scenario would see 2 to 3 billion still alive when the dying stops, but that really is being optimistic. Far more likely we are talking fewer than one billion, and in the worst case scenario is down in the tens of millions, scraping out an existence on both polar coastlines. See my avatar. That's Antarctica. I know you've taken some effort to reply, but, frankly it's a word salad which proves absolutely nothing. What it does prove is that you are a cultist. In science, there are few 100% proofs, but you subscribe to 100% proven where it is clearly untrue. Here's another question. If we achieve net zero tomorrow, what will the world temperature be in 2050 and 2100?
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 17:47:28 GMT
I don't know where you are getting your information from, but it is disinformation of the highest order. It has got nothing to do with any actual science. It is politically-motivated nonsense, and 99.9% of climate scientists would agree with me. I get that you completely believe what you are saying, and hold out no hope whatsoever of being able to help you understand what is really going on, but the bottom line is that the actual scientists involved in this work, if you asked them, would tell you that you do not understand the science. All of them. Where do you get your information from, just out of interest? Right wing American sources? Ah the 99.9% consensus again. Have you a link to the data that confirms the 99.9%. I don't need one, just like I don't need a link to the data that confirms 100% of scientists agree that that Earth revolves around the sun. If you are going to claim that there are scientists who don't think climate change is happening, or don't think it is being caused by humans, then it is you who needs to provide the source. And you can't, because there isn't one. No genuine scientists agree with you, just a tiny number of people who were bought off by big oil -- people intentionally presenting dodgy science for money. Those are the 0.01%, if you provide a link I will debunk it. No scientists agree with you. None. What you are doing is singling out a tiny number of people who have been paid to muddy the waters. There is no genuine scientific controversy about this -- all the controversy is politically motivated. Provide the link and I will debunk it.[/quote]
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 17:50:44 GMT
That depends what you mean by "Darwinism". To make it simpler, we could take just two fundamental components of evolutionary theory: common descent and natural selection. These two are absolutely proven, without no justification for being skeptical. Amphibians are descended from fish, for example. The probability of this claim turning out to be false is zero. It can't happen, because there's so much direct evidence to support it and that the only way it could be falsified is if the whole of natural science were to be falsified. And that just isn't going to happen. Natural selection is also unassailable because there's no conceivable way it can't be true -- if a mother duck starts out with 15 ducklings and only one survived, it surely isn't random which one survived. Or rather, it isn't random which ones didn't survive -- they weren't all born equal, and any with physical defects aren't going to last very long. That is how natural selection works. If you extend it to the whole of neo-Darwinism, including its materialistic context, then there are much bigger question marks. In fact I'd say that theory has conclusively been proven false, not because natural selection or common descent aren't true, but because metaphysical materialism is incoherent. But that's not actually science -- it's bad metaphysics that science is having trouble getting over. See: www.amazon.co.uk/Mind-Cosmos-Materialist-Neo-Darwinian-Conception/dp/0199919755I know it is absolutely a proven theory. I actually associate with climate scientists, in real life. None of them agree with you. You do realise that, right? You are saying the entire scientific community is wrong about something scientific, but your non-scientific sources (or your own thinking, I don't know) has got the science right. That is possibly the most important question that the whole world should be talking about, especially people who want to maximise their chances of survival, and those of their families, communities and nations. Natural selection will apply, but it is likely to apply as much at the group level as it does at the individual level. It's no use if you yourself make wise decisions, but you're living in a community or nation which makes bad ones. And for many people they have no chance anyway, because their nation is in a very poor location. The UK is one of the best places we could be -- we're an island (so have defensible borders) and we are far enough north to remain habitable even after 4 degrees of rise. Our biggest problem as a nation, from this POV, is overpopulation. We can't rely on global markets, and we can't feed ourselves. That is why we need to be asking these questions now -- letting more immigrants in in a futile, counter-productive search for economic growth is a terrible idea from this POV. What we actually need to do is try to get net immigration down to zero and become as self-sufficient as possible in critical things such as food and energy. I am not sure there is much point in predicting numbers who will survive, but I have been asked that question hundreds of times over the years and discussed it as many. I'd say the best case scenario would see 2 to 3 billion still alive when the dying stops, but that really is being optimistic. Far more likely we are talking fewer than one billion, and in the worst case scenario is down in the tens of millions, scraping out an existence on both polar coastlines. See my avatar. That's Antarctica. I know you've taken some effort to reply, but, frankly it's a word salad which proves absolutely nothing. And I know that you've taken no effort to reply, and probably didn't even read my post. You certainly haven't got any meaningful response to any of it. Ah yes, I am "cultist" for agreeing with an almost total scientific consensus, and you aren't a cultist even though you believe a load of politically-motivated anti-scientific drivel. The whole concept of "net zero" is flawed. This link explains why, though I am not expecting you to actually read it: theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2024 17:56:40 GMT
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 18:47:45 GMT
I have known for 30 years that it would be politically impossible to stop climate change. I understood the science, and I also understood the politics, having been active in both the Labour Party and the Green Party in my late teens and early 20s. Put them both together and it became abundantly clear that it was impossible to solve the problem at the global scale, and that this was guaranteed to lead to the end of civilisation as we know it. Nothing that has happened since then has given me any reason to think I was wrong. Net Zero is just the latest cover story for what is really going on, which is nothing. Literally, the total amount of difference made by all of those COP conferences to the final net amount of carbon emissions humanity will make by the time we stopping moving carbon from the ground into the atmosphere, will probably be zero. All it will have done is extend the time it took. The only way to limit climate change is to leave economically viable fossil fuels in the ground forever, and we're not going to do it. I am convinced humans will survive what is coming, in much lower numbers, and what I am interested in is the theoretical details of how civilisation might be rebuilt upon ecologically sound principles. Then the question is how we could get there, and how this can be brought back to what is happening today and what we should actually be doing right now.
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Post by sandypine on Apr 8, 2024 18:50:06 GMT
Ah the 99.9% consensus again. Have you a link to the data that confirms the 99.9%. I don't need one, just like I don't need a link to the data that confirms 100% of scientists agree that that Earth revolves around the sun. If you are going to claim that there are scientists who don't think climate change is happening, or don't think it is being caused by humans, then it is you who needs to provide the source. And you can't, because there isn't one. No genuine scientists agree with you, just a tiny number of people who were bought off by big oil -- people intentionally presenting dodgy science for money. Those are the 0.01%, if you provide a link I will debunk it. No scientists agree with you. None. What you are doing is singling out a tiny number of people who have been paid to muddy the waters. There is no genuine scientific controversy about this -- all the controversy is politically motivated. Provide the link and I will debunk it. So no data of the consensus forthcoming, not an unusual outcome. You now seem to be claiming that all scientists think AGW is a problem and no scientist at all says otherwise and if anyone does then they are paid to say that. Yet if I recall you said scientists do not lie which is a bit strange as we have many examples of scientists doing exactly that for various reasons from the Piltdown man to the Sokal affair up to the New Sokal affair and many more. www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warmingNB it is very hard to assess the accuracy of a study if the data on which that study is based and the personnel involved providing subjective opinion within that study cannot be interviewed. Upon such things is a consensus built. Perhaps we should just accept it as true, is that the 'rigorous scepticism' that resides in the scientific method that is supposed to be the bedrock of any scientific hypothesis.
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 19:11:28 GMT
There is no data on any scientific consensus. It is not normal for people to question a consensus when there is a consensus. None is needed, since there is no scientific controversy. It is only a story because people like you, motivated entirely by politics, refuse to accept that consensus. The science itself could not be clearer, and pretty much the entire scientific community is united in this message. This is also the case for society in general -- or at least the educated bits of it. In terms of real world politics, almost nobody outside of the US still doubts AGW.
That is exactly what I am claiming, yes.
There are odd fraudsters in any profession, and Piltdown Man is a rare example of that happening in science. It is even rarer these days. As for the Sokal affair -- that wasn't dishonesty. That was a clever way of exposing pseudo-philosophical nonsense for what it is. Neither of those examples involved a scientific consensus -- they were the exact opposite: one-offs.
How do you think that (very old) article helps you? If you want to make a credible case that climate change isn't being caused by humans, then you need to come up with at least one credible scientific paper that casts serious doubt on it. If there really was a scientific controversy here then there wouldn't just be one such paper -- there would be hundreds of them. Meanwhile, back in reality, you'll need to scrape the barrel to find any at all.
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Post by sandypine on Apr 8, 2024 19:38:41 GMT
There is no data on any scientific consensus. It is not normal for people to question a consensus when there is a consensus. None is needed, since there is no scientific controversy. It is only a story because people like you, motivated entirely by politics, refuse to accept that consensus. The science itself could not be clearer, and pretty much the entire scientific community is united in this message. This is also the case for society in general -- or at least the educated bits of it. In terms of real world politics, almost nobody outside of the US still doubts AGW. That is exactly what I am claiming, yes. There are odd fraudsters in any profession, and Piltdown Man is a rare example of that happening in science. It is even rarer these days. As for the Sokal affair -- that wasn't dishonesty. That was a clever way of exposing pseudo-philosophical nonsense for what it is. Neither of those examples involved a scientific consensus -- they were the exact opposite: one-offs. How do you think that (very old) article helps you? If you want to make a credible case that climate change isn't being caused by humans, then you need to come up with at least one credible scientific paper that casts serious doubt on it. If there really was a scientific controversy here then there wouldn't just be one such paper -- there would be hundreds of them. Meanwhile, back in reality, you'll need to scrape the barrel to find any at all. Of course there is data on the consensus otherwise the consensus is only a belief and science is not a belief it is a hypothesis that stands up to all rigorous sceptical questioning. A bland statement that the consensus exists because it you believe it exists has religious connotations that are indeed difficult to counter but stand on their own merits however they are derived. There are rare examples of what you said did not exist. perhaps there is a scientist lying about global warming and having a good old laugh. In order to negate that possibility what you do is apply rigorous scepticism and try to disprove your own belief and hope it fails. So far the consensus ignores that and belittles dismissses any rigorous sceptics withoiut answering their queries which is not science. You should be a product of an education system in the 70s and 80s which prided itself on raising enquiring minds not minds closed to alternative views without addressing those views. It seems I was mistaken. The 'very old' article was to do with how the consensus was measured and many of those who believed the consensus referred to Cook et al when queried on their beliefs. To be clear I have not said the planet is not warming or that humans are not the a driver all I am asking is where is the undisputed evidence. So far there is little and when it is disputed it is those who question who are addressed not the questions they ask. So far you are true to this form.
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Post by anthropoz on Apr 8, 2024 19:52:14 GMT
There is no data on any scientific consensus. It is not normal for people to question a consensus when there is a consensus. None is needed, since there is no scientific controversy. It is only a story because people like you, motivated entirely by politics, refuse to accept that consensus. The science itself could not be clearer, and pretty much the entire scientific community is united in this message. This is also the case for society in general -- or at least the educated bits of it. In terms of real world politics, almost nobody outside of the US still doubts AGW. That is exactly what I am claiming, yes. There are odd fraudsters in any profession, and Piltdown Man is a rare example of that happening in science. It is even rarer these days. As for the Sokal affair -- that wasn't dishonesty. That was a clever way of exposing pseudo-philosophical nonsense for what it is. Neither of those examples involved a scientific consensus -- they were the exact opposite: one-offs. How do you think that (very old) article helps you? If you want to make a credible case that climate change isn't being caused by humans, then you need to come up with at least one credible scientific paper that casts serious doubt on it. If there really was a scientific controversy here then there wouldn't just be one such paper -- there would be hundreds of them. Meanwhile, back in reality, you'll need to scrape the barrel to find any at all. Of course there is data on the consensus otherwise the consensus is only a belief and science is not a belief it is a hypothesis that stands up to all rigorous sceptical questioning. A bland statement that the consensus exists because it you believe it exists has religious connotations that are indeed difficult to counter but stand on their own merits however they are derived. There are rare examples of what you said did not exist. perhaps there is a scientist lying about global warming and having a good old laugh. In order to negate that possibility what you do is apply rigorous scepticism and try to disprove your own belief and hope it fails. So far the consensus ignores that and belittles dismissses any rigorous sceptics withoiut answering their queries which is not science. You should be a product of an education system in the 70s and 80s which prided itself on raising enquiring minds not minds closed to alternative views without addressing those views. It seems I was mistaken. The 'very old' article was to do with how the consensus was measured and many of those who believed the consensus referred to Cook et al when queried on their beliefs. To be clear I have not said the planet is not warming or that humans are not the a driver all I am asking is where is the undisputed evidence. So far there is little and when it is disputed it is those who question who are addressed not the questions they ask. So far you are true to this form. The discussion we are having right now is the only controversy, and it is a political controversy. There is no scientific controversy. If you actually talk to climate scientists, or follow the literature, then it is abundantly clear that there is no controversy. There are all sorts of questions about details, for sure. The science is always developing, and scientists are always trying to improve their models and their theories. But within the scientific community there simply isn't any debate any more. Everybody "accepts AGW". The only time this is ever questioned is in a political context such as this one. There really isn't anything else to discuss. You don't accept the science, but can't admit that you don't accept the science, so you demand evidence of a consensus of rejecting your viewpoint even though you can't supply a single reference to an actual scientist who agrees with you. You are claiming there somehow must be a scientific controversy if I can't prove there isn't one, instead of making any attempt to demonstrate that such a controversy actually exists.
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Post by ProVeritas on Apr 8, 2024 20:16:28 GMT
In Roman times vineyards were in Britain, and as far north as Norway, there were hippos and crocs in the rivers and lakes. Norfolk has vineyards. Man survived. Laughed at that one squeezed middle. Utter bullshit. All The Best
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Post by Pacifico on Apr 8, 2024 21:17:35 GMT
I have known for 30 years that it would be politically impossible to stop climate change. So why are politicians (especially on the Left) continually calling for us to bankrupt the economy on the altar of Net Zero?.
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