"Real world data is undermining doomster 'Bregret' narrative
Aug 11, 2023 12:40:01 GMT
Vinny, Bentley, and 1 more like this
Post by buccaneer on Aug 11, 2023 12:40:01 GMT
A nice & timely little article by Ross Clark reminding us of how all the dooming predictions and forecasts (as usual) for Brexit Britain were probably pinned more in hope than anything else. As 'real world data' pisses on their parade.
How many times can these remainer types get it wrong, and have the audacity to lead us to believe they have credibility?
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/remainer-myths-are-crumbling-gdp-better-than-expected/
How many times can these remainer types get it wrong, and have the audacity to lead us to believe they have credibility?
What fun Britain’s rearguard Remainers appeared to have on 31 January when the IMF predicted that Britain was going to be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, the projected 0.6 per cent slide in output even worse than forecast to be suffered by sanctions-bound Russia.
Never mind that the UK had just finished 2022 as the fastest-growing economy in the G7; it was of course Brexit which was condemning us to poverty. “The effects of Brexit run through Britain’s last-in-class economy because they also run through its divided, exhausted politics,” declared the New York Times’ London Bureau Chief in a piece titled Brexit Turns 3: why is no-one wearing a party hat? “Brexit is the dark thread that, to some critics, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbours.”
According to The Observer, “Bregret” was now stalking the land. The OECD and CBI added their own ha’porth of wisdom, both independently echoing the IMF claim that the UK economy was headed for a grim 2023 relative to other European countries.
What an object lesson it has turned out to be in waiting for real-world data rather than reacting to what economic models are telling you, biased as they all are with the prejudices of those who create them. The Office of National Statistics this morning reported that the UK economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, following growth of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter. It is not yet impossible that the economy could end up shrinking over the course of 2023, but it would take a pretty miserable autumn. Truth is, the UK economy has consistently outperformed forecasts over the past year – not least those worse-than-useless bulletins pumped out by the Bank of England which, from the vantage point of last autumn, had Britain in recession throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, economic life has turned a little sour in Germany, which was supposed to outgrow Britain this year. The past three quarters have seen growth of minus 0.4 per cent, minus 0.1 per cent and zero per cent. The Netherlands, too, had a wretched first quarter, with the economy shrinking 0.3 per cent; we don’t yet have figures for the second quarter. Italy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter but shrank 0.3 per cent in the second. One of those three is looking likely to win the wooden spoon for Europe’s worst-performing economy in 2023.
Real-world data won’t stop the rearguard Remainers, of course. They will continue to insist that the UK economy is smaller than it would have been had we not left the EU. An outfit called the Centre for European Reform recently claimed that the UK economy would be 5.5 per cent bigger than it is now had we remained. The beauty of forecasts expressed in that manner is that they can never actually be proven wrong because we can’t compare reality with a parallel universe where Britain is still a member of the EU. Yet every time the Remain lobby makes a forecast that can be measured against real outcome it seems to then, somewhat amusingly, go wrong.
The New York Times was right about one thing: there is no justification for donning a party hat. We may not be in recession but we are stuck with anaemic growth, held back by a miserable failure to improve productivity, especially in the public sector.
But there is no shining example to be found across the Channel, and no reason to believe that we would be better off still pegged down with the sclerotic EU. One of the purposes of Brexit was to try to escape the low orbit of Europe’s over-regulated, over-protected economy. We can’t say that we have done that yet – though the potential is still there. But what we need is a government prepared to exploit our new-found freedoms.
Never mind that the UK had just finished 2022 as the fastest-growing economy in the G7; it was of course Brexit which was condemning us to poverty. “The effects of Brexit run through Britain’s last-in-class economy because they also run through its divided, exhausted politics,” declared the New York Times’ London Bureau Chief in a piece titled Brexit Turns 3: why is no-one wearing a party hat? “Brexit is the dark thread that, to some critics, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbours.”
According to The Observer, “Bregret” was now stalking the land. The OECD and CBI added their own ha’porth of wisdom, both independently echoing the IMF claim that the UK economy was headed for a grim 2023 relative to other European countries.
What an object lesson it has turned out to be in waiting for real-world data rather than reacting to what economic models are telling you, biased as they all are with the prejudices of those who create them. The Office of National Statistics this morning reported that the UK economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, following growth of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter. It is not yet impossible that the economy could end up shrinking over the course of 2023, but it would take a pretty miserable autumn. Truth is, the UK economy has consistently outperformed forecasts over the past year – not least those worse-than-useless bulletins pumped out by the Bank of England which, from the vantage point of last autumn, had Britain in recession throughout 2023.
Meanwhile, economic life has turned a little sour in Germany, which was supposed to outgrow Britain this year. The past three quarters have seen growth of minus 0.4 per cent, minus 0.1 per cent and zero per cent. The Netherlands, too, had a wretched first quarter, with the economy shrinking 0.3 per cent; we don’t yet have figures for the second quarter. Italy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter but shrank 0.3 per cent in the second. One of those three is looking likely to win the wooden spoon for Europe’s worst-performing economy in 2023.
Real-world data won’t stop the rearguard Remainers, of course. They will continue to insist that the UK economy is smaller than it would have been had we not left the EU. An outfit called the Centre for European Reform recently claimed that the UK economy would be 5.5 per cent bigger than it is now had we remained. The beauty of forecasts expressed in that manner is that they can never actually be proven wrong because we can’t compare reality with a parallel universe where Britain is still a member of the EU. Yet every time the Remain lobby makes a forecast that can be measured against real outcome it seems to then, somewhat amusingly, go wrong.
The New York Times was right about one thing: there is no justification for donning a party hat. We may not be in recession but we are stuck with anaemic growth, held back by a miserable failure to improve productivity, especially in the public sector.
But there is no shining example to be found across the Channel, and no reason to believe that we would be better off still pegged down with the sclerotic EU. One of the purposes of Brexit was to try to escape the low orbit of Europe’s over-regulated, over-protected economy. We can’t say that we have done that yet – though the potential is still there. But what we need is a government prepared to exploit our new-found freedoms.
