Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 13:20:48 GMT
Most likely we won't get back our original opt outs. Most likely the EU will view us with suspicion -- rightly so. Most likely they will not grant us a Swiss-style deal since they themselves have been trying to amend them. Most likely we will have to settle for BRINO.
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/why-reversing-brexit-and-rejoining-the-eu-could-take-a-decade-and-cost-the-uk-an-extra-5-6bn-a-year/ar-AA1dxHkf?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1234d1a8bada458db9953bf0ba2f5c94&ei=9
Why reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU could take a decade and cost the UK an extra £5.6bn a year
Story by Arj Singh • Friday
Support for rejoining the EU has been growing in recent weeks amid economic turmoil in the UK.
It is an issue that most leading Westminster politicians have handled with all the enthusiasm they would muster for an unexploded bomb. But there are signs the political weather on Brexit may finally be shifting, with Labour under pressure to adopt a more radical policy and a senior Tory calling on both main parties to admit that leaving the EU was a mistake.
However, rejoining would be a hugely complicated and protracted process for the UK, fraught with practical and political stumbling blocks.
The first stage – meeting the criteria for joining, including promoting EU values such as freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and human rights, as well as having a functioning market economy and the capacity to absorb Brussels law, is likely to be the easiest.
But even that will become steadily more difficult the as the UK remains outside the EU and diverges from Brussels law to take advantage of Brexit freedoms, for example by allowing the gene editing of food.
Once the UK believes it has met the criteria, it can then apply to Brussels to rejoin. This is where things start to get tricky as each of the EU countries has a veto on the UK joining.
Although Brussels would be keen to welcome back one of Europe’s major economies, with the budgetary contributions it would bring, one of the biggest battles the UK will face is convincing EU leaders it is not simply the continent’s “yo-yo”.
“Until you are convinced the Brits are not going to be difficult, agonise, hold up progress, make life difficult, they would think ‘having inflicted six wasted years of getting rid of you, actually I think we’d rather keep you out’.”
Professor Menon, meanwhile, raises the prospect of the Government applying to join, then negotiating the terms which it then puts to British voters in a referendum – a potentially necessary political step given the majority vote to Leave.
“The question is whether the EU would even entertain the idea of such a negotiation if opposition Conservatives who looked to have any chance of winning remained opposed to EU membership,” he says. “Because that immediately opens the prospect of a few years down the line having another referendum about leaving, which would be a farce. We’d be Europe’s yo-yo.”
Some EU states have particular agendas that could make British re-entry even more difficult. Spain could wield its veto as a means of reopening the status of Gibraltar, the British overseas territory on the southern tip of the Iberian peninsula.
Meanwhile, Professor Menon says there is already a “queue forming” to join the EU, with Ukraine and Western Balkan nations in the early stages of potential accession. This is likely to lead to “bruising” internal EU battles that make it “even harder and even longer” for the UK to get back in.
If the UK did win permission to apply as an official candidate for membership, it would then enter negotiations with the EU on the terms of its accession – perhaps the most awkward part of the whole process.
EU rules say all new member states must join the Euro, and the Schengen border-free travel zone, both of which the UK swerved when it was previously a member. But the requirements would make joining more politically difficult for a UK Government and it is highly likely that there would be attempts to negotiate new opt-outs for Britain
There is a kind of precedent as Denmark has an opt-out from the Euro and Ireland, which is in a common travel area with the UK, from Schengen. But they were already well established EU members when they got their exemptions. Several other countries – mainly in eastern Europe – are also obliged to join Schengen, but have not done so.
There would also be intense negotiations over the UK’s contributions to the EU budget. But the idea of a British government regaining the “rebate” that reduced its contribution by around £5.6bn a year in today’s prices, seems highly unlikely.
If the negotiations do conclude successfully, the resulting treaty with the UK would then need approval by the European Parliament, each of the EU member states, and each country’s national parliament.
However, experts view the prospect of actually rejoining as “remote”. The UK could seek other forms of closer association with the EU, with Government briefings in recent months suggesting a Swiss-style arrangement of multiple individual deals to ease trade and other co-operation was under consideration.
Brussels however is not a fan of the Swiss approach, the experts say. Single market membership is, meanwhile, viewed as unlikely on anything more than a temporary basis, as the UK would have to accept all EU law without having any say over it.
“Theresa May was right when she said we would find this very uncomfortable,” Ms Rutter says.
Most likely, Ms Rutter thinks, is some kind of bespoke deal that eases trade but does not require the laborious rejoining process, or for the UK to accept some of the most unpopular parts of EU membership such as the free movement of people.
www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/why-reversing-brexit-and-rejoining-the-eu-could-take-a-decade-and-cost-the-uk-an-extra-5-6bn-a-year/ar-AA1dxHkf?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1234d1a8bada458db9953bf0ba2f5c94&ei=9
Why reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU could take a decade and cost the UK an extra £5.6bn a year
Story by Arj Singh • Friday
Support for rejoining the EU has been growing in recent weeks amid economic turmoil in the UK.
It is an issue that most leading Westminster politicians have handled with all the enthusiasm they would muster for an unexploded bomb. But there are signs the political weather on Brexit may finally be shifting, with Labour under pressure to adopt a more radical policy and a senior Tory calling on both main parties to admit that leaving the EU was a mistake.
However, rejoining would be a hugely complicated and protracted process for the UK, fraught with practical and political stumbling blocks.
The first stage – meeting the criteria for joining, including promoting EU values such as freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and human rights, as well as having a functioning market economy and the capacity to absorb Brussels law, is likely to be the easiest.
But even that will become steadily more difficult the as the UK remains outside the EU and diverges from Brussels law to take advantage of Brexit freedoms, for example by allowing the gene editing of food.
Once the UK believes it has met the criteria, it can then apply to Brussels to rejoin. This is where things start to get tricky as each of the EU countries has a veto on the UK joining.
Although Brussels would be keen to welcome back one of Europe’s major economies, with the budgetary contributions it would bring, one of the biggest battles the UK will face is convincing EU leaders it is not simply the continent’s “yo-yo”.
“Until you are convinced the Brits are not going to be difficult, agonise, hold up progress, make life difficult, they would think ‘having inflicted six wasted years of getting rid of you, actually I think we’d rather keep you out’.”
Professor Menon, meanwhile, raises the prospect of the Government applying to join, then negotiating the terms which it then puts to British voters in a referendum – a potentially necessary political step given the majority vote to Leave.
“The question is whether the EU would even entertain the idea of such a negotiation if opposition Conservatives who looked to have any chance of winning remained opposed to EU membership,” he says. “Because that immediately opens the prospect of a few years down the line having another referendum about leaving, which would be a farce. We’d be Europe’s yo-yo.”
Some EU states have particular agendas that could make British re-entry even more difficult. Spain could wield its veto as a means of reopening the status of Gibraltar, the British overseas territory on the southern tip of the Iberian peninsula.
Meanwhile, Professor Menon says there is already a “queue forming” to join the EU, with Ukraine and Western Balkan nations in the early stages of potential accession. This is likely to lead to “bruising” internal EU battles that make it “even harder and even longer” for the UK to get back in.
If the UK did win permission to apply as an official candidate for membership, it would then enter negotiations with the EU on the terms of its accession – perhaps the most awkward part of the whole process.
EU rules say all new member states must join the Euro, and the Schengen border-free travel zone, both of which the UK swerved when it was previously a member. But the requirements would make joining more politically difficult for a UK Government and it is highly likely that there would be attempts to negotiate new opt-outs for Britain
There is a kind of precedent as Denmark has an opt-out from the Euro and Ireland, which is in a common travel area with the UK, from Schengen. But they were already well established EU members when they got their exemptions. Several other countries – mainly in eastern Europe – are also obliged to join Schengen, but have not done so.
There would also be intense negotiations over the UK’s contributions to the EU budget. But the idea of a British government regaining the “rebate” that reduced its contribution by around £5.6bn a year in today’s prices, seems highly unlikely.
If the negotiations do conclude successfully, the resulting treaty with the UK would then need approval by the European Parliament, each of the EU member states, and each country’s national parliament.
However, experts view the prospect of actually rejoining as “remote”. The UK could seek other forms of closer association with the EU, with Government briefings in recent months suggesting a Swiss-style arrangement of multiple individual deals to ease trade and other co-operation was under consideration.
Brussels however is not a fan of the Swiss approach, the experts say. Single market membership is, meanwhile, viewed as unlikely on anything more than a temporary basis, as the UK would have to accept all EU law without having any say over it.
“Theresa May was right when she said we would find this very uncomfortable,” Ms Rutter says.
Most likely, Ms Rutter thinks, is some kind of bespoke deal that eases trade but does not require the laborious rejoining process, or for the UK to accept some of the most unpopular parts of EU membership such as the free movement of people.