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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jul 15, 2023 17:36:33 GMT
You need some mathematical background to understand what is gong on with these climate patterns.
I found a little tutorial which gives you an introduction.
Regarding extracting CO2, yes it can be done but it needs energy to do it and is fairly expensive, but the price is coming down. It is cheaper to clean up emissions of CO2 from source since the concentrations are much higher.
I remember the Lorenz Attractor from the 1990's program Fractint. I think you can still run it by installing DOS in a virtual machine. It could produce some pretty images but I'm not sure it can solve the climate problem. It's just an example of a class of function called a strange attractor. You have transient functions, ones that tend to infinity, periodic ones and ones like the example, which give you various patterns but only due to the mathematics of the system. This is what we are dealing with for the climate as you see macro weather systems that always repeat with a similar way but not quite. So the weather and the climate are not distinct. It a fractal system where as you scale up and down on the time axis you see the same sort of patterns and a fractal system if you scale in size of area studied as well. . To understand it we need to reverse engineer and try and find the equations driving it. The increase in CO2 is liable to set it on a different path than if it never happened, but the response of the system is not necessarily intuitive. The IPCC climate model assumes it is a linear system, which it is not. Another place you get this kind of behaviour is in multi-body astronomical systems. The gravitational effects of the pull between the various masses is non-linear so it leads to complicated paths, and firing a booster rocket in a spaceship might well not make you end up where you would intuitively think you would. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2023 18:56:02 GMT
Well the Earth wobbles on its axis but in a predictable way, which is thought to be the main reason for ice ages. The unpredictable factor is volcanic activity which can emit large amounts of CO2. Is precession the reason for ice ages? I don't think that is likely at all. Precession should not affect the heating or cooling of the earth as the planet 's axis simply revolves around a point, so the pole star changes, but in relation to the sun not much changes at all. |
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Post by distant on Jul 15, 2023 20:09:14 GMT
Well the Earth wobbles on its axis but in a predictable way, which is thought to be the main reason for ice ages. The unpredictable factor is volcanic activity which can emit large amounts of CO2. Is precession the reason for ice ages? I don't think that is likely at all. Precession should not affect the heating or cooling of the earth as the planet 's axis simply revolves around a point, so the pole star changes, but in relation to the sun not much changes at all. The more likely main cause is the Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles where the Earth's orbit around the sun changes in a predictable way. But if you read the link below you'll find that precession is a factor in these cycles.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2023 20:35:43 GMT
Is precession the reason for ice ages? I don't think that is likely at all. Precession should not affect the heating or cooling of the earth as the planet 's axis simply revolves around a point, so the pole star changes, but in relation to the sun not much changes at all. The more likely main cause is the Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles where the Earth's orbit around the sun changes in a predictable way. But if you read the link below you'll find that precession is a factor in these cycles.
Very good link, thanks. But it does conclude that it is changes in eccentricity that affect glacial cycles at 100k year intervals, not precession. |
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Post by Baron von Lotsov on Jul 15, 2023 22:02:42 GMT
Is precession the reason for ice ages? I don't think that is likely at all. Precession should not affect the heating or cooling of the earth as the planet 's axis simply revolves around a point, so the pole star changes, but in relation to the sun not much changes at all. The more likely main cause is the Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles where the Earth's orbit around the sun changes in a predictable way. But if you read the link below you'll find that precession is a factor in these cycles.
This is what I mentioned before. Our solar system is a multi-body astronomical system so it is chaotic, but mostly fairly regular. A two-body system is easy to compute and follows a regular pattern, but as you get 3 or more you get perturbations. They modulate the unperturbed expected behaviour. This as system where everything affects everything else, just as the wider climate system. For example methane is a very strong greenhouse gas but the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere causes destruction of this methane. During lockdown CO2 went down and methane started to rise. |
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Post by distant on Jul 17, 2023 9:02:28 GMT
The more likely main cause is the Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles where the Earth's orbit around the sun changes in a predictable way. But if you read the link below you'll find that precession is a factor in these cycles.
Very good link, thanks. But it does conclude that it is changes in eccentricity that affect glacial cycles at 100k year intervals, not precession. Well that's not how I read it.
From the link: So if you combine obliquity with precession, at certain points in time the Earth's tilt is going to be even more pronounced, and at other times less pronounced. Maybe it's at one of the extreme points that an ice age is triggered. Or am I missing something. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2023 12:49:24 GMT
Very good link, thanks. But it does conclude that it is changes in eccentricity that affect glacial cycles at 100k year intervals, not precession. Well that's not how I read it.
From the link: So if you combine obliquity with precession, at certain points in time the Earth's tilt is going to be even more pronounced, and at other times less pronounced. Maybe it's at one of the extreme points that an ice age is triggered. Or am I missing something. Only this: But about 800,000 years ago, the cycle of Ice Ages lengthened to 100,000 years, matching Earth’s eccentricity cycle. |
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Post by bancroft on Jul 17, 2023 13:08:51 GMT
Some scientists say that we are in a new geological time period called the Anthropocene. Personally I don't think this period will last long before the planet's feedback system destroys the source of the increased temperatures. Of course the planet's ecology will go on with species that can survive the temperatures and then the temperatures will start to fall.
Some people point to the deep past when temperatures were much higher than they are now. This is true but humans weren't around then and would probably never have evolved if those conditions had continued.
There's not much we can do about this due to the nature of humans.
I reckon a few hundred years following continued cutting down of rain forests the volcanoes and earthquakes will start to happen globally and a lot of humanity will die. Nearly all having to start again from scratch. In the time it takes them to progress the world will renew itself again. |
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Post by patman post on Jul 17, 2023 14:51:38 GMT
There's a possibility that all of us under 50 years of age will be caught up in one giant turmoil as migration will really become massive and virtually global and we all scrabble for our own bit of land and means of survival. What we're seeing now with climate change and migration might abate for up to a decade, but it could be an indication of what's to come...
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Post by distant on Jul 17, 2023 15:28:54 GMT
Well that's not how I read it.
From the link: So if you combine obliquity with precession, at certain points in time the Earth's tilt is going to be even more pronounced, and at other times less pronounced. Maybe it's at one of the extreme points that an ice age is triggered. Or am I missing something. Only this: But about 800,000 years ago, the cycle of Ice Ages lengthened to 100,000 years, matching Earth’s eccentricity cycle.I didn't miss that, nor did I miss this:
I can't see that the relatively small gravitational effects from Jupiter and Saturn have much effect on eccentricity. At about this time, due to current eccentricity, we are the furthest away from the Sun (about 94.5 million miles where the mean distance is 93 million miles). I don't think this is stopping the temperatures in the Mediterranean approaching 48 degrees C. I doubt the small effect of Jupiter and Saturn will make much difference.
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