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Post by bancroft on Jul 3, 2023 14:06:06 GMT
I remember that, think I read it in the Economist and think the figure was overvalued as much as 40% makes me think it's only immigration keeping the prices high. |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 3, 2023 17:33:19 GMT
Oh stop it. The value of a currency is deecided by international currency exchanges and the stock/bond/gilt markets. Not the government or The Bank of England which has some manoeuvering room but always has to work in context with other currencies.for example if the euro goes up, the pound goes down BY COMPARISON. Being a largely importing nation, it is better to have a stronger pound so tthat it takes a smaller production to make the value.
The balancing between the strength of the currency and what it will trade for relative to everyone else is what hedging and futures are about. They gamble and buy into future values of various currencies. Of course overvalued currency may make your goods more expensive and v v. The trick is to let the markets decide since that is where the values are established. What part of if imports get more expensive that benefits domestic production down you quite get? Anyway, the Markets have decided and currently (as you pointed out) we are exporting more in value terms for less actual production - which is a pretty good win. |
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 3, 2023 19:07:31 GMT
Not when wages ( and other costs) are going up.
You have to produce more to compete when other places earn more for less production because their currency is worth more per hour internationally.
I am having to repeat myself because you arent thinking this through.
Brexit has done nothing for the UK economy. With the tangle of paperwork and standards of origin, the world has decided to try to find ways around the UK. The EU protects its own, and the UK voted to leave the family.
That is why the UK growth is flat.
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Post by Vinny on Jul 3, 2023 19:29:10 GMT
Oh stop it. The value of a currency is deecided by international currency exchanges and the stock/bond/gilt markets. Not the government or The Bank of England which has some manoeuvering room but always has to work in context with other currencies.for example if the euro goes up, the pound goes down BY COMPARISON. Being a largely importing nation, it is better to have a stronger pound so tthat it takes a smaller production to make the value.
The balancing between the strength of the currency and what it will trade for relative to everyone else is what hedging and futures are about. They gamble and buy into future values of various currencies. Of course overvalued currency may make your goods more expensive and v v. The trick is to let the markets decide since that is where the values are established. What part of if imports get more expensive that benefits domestic production down you quite get? Anyway, the Markets have decided and currently (as you pointed out) we are exporting more in value terms for less actual production - which is a pretty good win. Well said. And now the pound is no longer overvalued, our exports are cheaper and our sales are up in value. |
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 3, 2023 21:40:55 GMT
If imports are more expensive, output has to be more expensive to make a profit.
And it becomes uncompetitive.
The fact that loss of growth in the UK economy relative to others says that production is not profitable.
And the idea that it is OK to want less production is a cultural attitude often ascribed to Brits being lazy and old.
That it is this attitude which produces "zero benefit" to UK business.
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 3, 2023 21:52:24 GMT
Not when wages ( and other costs) are going up. You have to produce more to compete when other places earn more for less production because their currency is worth more per hour internationally. I am having to repeat myself because you arent thinking this through. Brexit has done nothing for the UK economy. With the tangle of paperwork and standards of origin, the world has decided to try to find ways around the UK. The EU protects its own, and the UK voted to leave the family. That is why the UK growth is flat. You keep arguing against the facts - we are currently getting paid more for producing less. Our growth since 2016 is on a par with the EU - although unlike some member states we are not currently in recession. You say Brexit has done nothing and growth is flat - I'd tend to agree, our economic performance has barely changed. Which shows that EU membership was of no great importance to the UK economy - for the same performance we have saved ourselves £10 Billion a year. Sounds like a win to me. Why pay the EU for nothing?. |
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Post by buccaneer on Jul 3, 2023 23:25:49 GMT
Little fact: Consequently, UK goods exports to the EU had stagnated long before the UK voted to Leave. According to Eurostat, between 2011 and 2021 the highest average annual growth rate of EU imports were from China (6.3%) and Turkey (6.2%), while the largest decreases for EU imports were seen for the United Kingdom (-2.5%) and Russia (-1.9%).
If being a member of the EU was so critical for UK trade, how could three non-EU countries – China, Turkey and Russia – exceed the UK’s export performance into the EU? It was not caused by UK manufacturing being uncompetitive, because UK goods exports to non-EU markets grew over the same period. The failure of economic commentators to mention this is baffling. The flatlining of UK goods exports to the EU in the decade before the Brexit referendum, while the EU expanded eastward adding over 100 million people, is the most under-reported aspect of UK-EU trade relations. www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/trade-with-eu-doing-fine/In the end, EU membership for the UK wasn't worth the costs and burdens the EU applied to it. |
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 4, 2023 5:30:28 GMT
First, the three countries you mention all have large populations so UK exports are bound to go up once businesses make contact and start to trade.
The more trade deals the less trade by comparison the EU does within its own zone. It starts to expand outside its own area and trade with the ROW.
Second you are bound to sell more goods and services to developing countries who accumulate enough money to start to catch up with goods and technology they previously couldnt afford. People in Europ dont NEED things as much and in times of inflation, tend to cut back. That is how the BoE controls inflation...by forcing people to spend more on taxation (interest rates on contractual mortgages etc).
It is a red herring to compare trade inside the EU with that outside it. The whole purpose of EU trade deals was to expand EU trade across the world. Since "the world" is vastly bigger and more needy than the EU, the trade deals would be pointless.
It is a shame that the UK didnt take full advantage of those deals but instead, to show off, made public headlines of three deals which hardly touched its gdp and actually worked in favour of two of them.
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 4, 2023 5:52:33 GMT
Not when wages ( and other costs) are going up. You have to produce more to compete when other places earn more for less production because their currency is worth more per hour internationally. I am having to repeat myself because you arent thinking this through. Brexit has done nothing for the UK economy. With the tangle of paperwork and standards of origin, the world has decided to try to find ways around the UK. The EU protects its own, and the UK voted to leave the family. That is why the UK growth is flat. You keep arguing against the facts - we are currently getting paid more for producing less. Our growth since 2016 is on a par with the EU - although unlike some member states we are not currently in recession. You say Brexit has done nothing and growth is flat - I'd tend to agree, our economic performance has barely changed. Which shows that EU membership was of no great importance to the UK economy - for the same performance we have saved ourselves £10 Billion a year. Sounds like a win to me. Why pay the EU for nothing?. You are getting bigger numbers for fewer sales BECAUSE THE NUMBERS REFLECT THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE WHICH MEANS EACH POUND IS WORTH LESS. So you need more of them to make up the same value. I already explained the recession in Germany is due to its reliance on Russian gas. And the UK is still paying the EU in tariffs, contributions owed from previous agreements and for being included in projects such as Horizon. All of which adds up to more than 10 billion a year. By 31 December 2021, the UK had paid a net amount of £11 billion and was due to have paid a further net £3.3 billion to the end of May, leaving £21.3 billion outstanding, with future current payments of almost €900 million a month. en.m.wikipedia.org › wiki Brexit divorce bill - Wikipedia commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7886/So in the hidden reality that Leavers forget about, the UK still pays a great deal of money to the EU. And will continue to do so. It just isnt mentioned for obvious political reasons. |
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Post by buccaneer on Jul 4, 2023 5:58:23 GMT
Not sure what this is supposed to mean. Which proves the point that it wasn't worth the UK staying inside the EU. Another reason the UK left the EU. So it could go a sought trade deals with growing economies. It's not a red herring when weighing up the costs and burdens of EU membership. On the contrary, it is actually very important. The UK is taking full advantage of those deals now: ... department has rolled over 68 EU trade agreements, improved the agreements with Japan, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein in line with UK trade objectives, signed a digital economy agreement with Singapore, completed two entirely new
agreements with Australia and New Zealand, and agreed (but not yet ratified) deals with Ukraine and with Eastern and Southern African countries. It has introduced a simplified trading scheme and cut tariffs for 65 developing nations. The
department is also working on improving the UK’s trade agreements with Switzerland, Canada, and Mexico, is close to singing the Comprehensive and Progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and is deep in negotiations with
India, Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council. It has even found time to start negotiations with South Korea and with the Maldives. This is a major achievement.www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/trade-with-eu-doing-fine/The UK is better off outside the EU. |
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Post by buccaneer on Jul 4, 2023 6:04:04 GMT
You keep arguing against the facts - we are currently getting paid more for producing less. Our growth since 2016 is on a par with the EU - although unlike some member states we are not currently in recession. You say Brexit has done nothing and growth is flat - I'd tend to agree, our economic performance has barely changed. Which shows that EU membership was of no great importance to the UK economy - for the same performance we have saved ourselves £10 Billion a year. Sounds like a win to me. Why pay the EU for nothing?. You are getting bigger numbers for fewer sales BECAUSE THE NUMBERS REFLECT THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE WHICH MEANS EACH POUND IS WORTH LESS. So you need more of them to make up the same value. I already explained the recession in Germany is due to its reliance on Russian gas. And the UK is still paying the EU in tariffs, contributions owed from previous agreements and for being included in projects such as Horizon. All of which adds up to more than 10 billion a year. By 31 December 2021, the UK had paid a net amount of £11 billion and was due to have paid a further net £3.3 billion to the end of May, leaving £21.3 billion outstanding, with future current payments of almost €900 million a month. en.m.wikipedia.org › wiki Brexit divorce bill - Wikipedia commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7886/So in the hidden reality that Leavers forget about, the UK still pays a great deal of money to the EU. And will continue to do so. It just isnt mentioned for obvious political reasons. Then you have no reason to complain when the UK rolled over EU trade deals and further amended a few of them. And the UK has saved itself billions by not being in the EU. www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/brexit-has-already-saved-us-billions/ |
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Post by Pacifico on Jul 4, 2023 7:06:23 GMT
You keep arguing against the facts - we are currently getting paid more for producing less. Our growth since 2016 is on a par with the EU - although unlike some member states we are not currently in recession. You say Brexit has done nothing and growth is flat - I'd tend to agree, our economic performance has barely changed. Which shows that EU membership was of no great importance to the UK economy - for the same performance we have saved ourselves £10 Billion a year. Sounds like a win to me. Why pay the EU for nothing?. You are getting bigger numbers for fewer sales BECAUSE THE NUMBERS REFLECT THE INFLATIONARY PRESSURE WHICH MEANS EACH POUND IS WORTH LESS. So you need more of them to make up the same value. The value of the Pound has not changed since 2016 and our exports have risen over that period - in fact despite tighter restrictions on the EU side of the border, UK goods imports from the EU have fallen by more than UK goods exports to the EU. The devaluation was good news for domestic production - we export more and import less. A good win. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2023 7:45:39 GMT
The value of the pound against the Euro in 2015: 1.38
The value of the pound against the Euro in 2016: 1.22
The value of the pound against the Euro in 2023: 1.14
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 4, 2023 7:50:33 GMT
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Post by oracle75 on Jul 4, 2023 8:04:57 GMT
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