Post by Pacifico on Jun 29, 2023 16:30:56 GMT
Interesting article on the changes in leadership in Europe caused by the war in Ukraine.
The European Union had a shared leadership between France and Germany, with France taking the predominant military and diplomatic role and Germany the economic one. The legal framework was based upon the primacy of EU law within member states. This led to significant tensions in both the east and west of Europe.
The status quo was based on an understanding over the export of gas (as well as oil and coal) from Russia to Germany, most obviously through the Nord Stream pipeline. Berlin and Moscow held the fate of central Europe in their hands once more. German economic interests were predominant, partly because the EU did not develop a unified military strategy of its own.
This is what made the status of Ukraine so explosive. Its integration into either the EU or Nato was not in German interests. It would undermine its economic interests, as the only serious industrial economy within the EU, which were predicated upon cheap energy imports from Russia.
The invasion of Ukraine moved the focus from the economic to the military sphere, in which Germany was both weaker and more reluctant. France shared this antipathy. A military confrontation with Russia would shift power and resources to Nato, which would lead to a resurgence of US (and British) power within Europe.
Lenin once observed that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation was one of those moments. France and Germany lost their ascendancy, Poland and Britain came to the fore, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries joined the new coalition, leaving Germany isolated within northern Europe. The Netherlands also actively supported the British-Polish alliance. The balance of power in Europe shifted east and west against the middle. And this process has only just begun.
The European Union had a shared leadership between France and Germany, with France taking the predominant military and diplomatic role and Germany the economic one. The legal framework was based upon the primacy of EU law within member states. This led to significant tensions in both the east and west of Europe.
The status quo was based on an understanding over the export of gas (as well as oil and coal) from Russia to Germany, most obviously through the Nord Stream pipeline. Berlin and Moscow held the fate of central Europe in their hands once more. German economic interests were predominant, partly because the EU did not develop a unified military strategy of its own.
This is what made the status of Ukraine so explosive. Its integration into either the EU or Nato was not in German interests. It would undermine its economic interests, as the only serious industrial economy within the EU, which were predicated upon cheap energy imports from Russia.
The invasion of Ukraine moved the focus from the economic to the military sphere, in which Germany was both weaker and more reluctant. France shared this antipathy. A military confrontation with Russia would shift power and resources to Nato, which would lead to a resurgence of US (and British) power within Europe.
Lenin once observed that “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation was one of those moments. France and Germany lost their ascendancy, Poland and Britain came to the fore, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries joined the new coalition, leaving Germany isolated within northern Europe. The Netherlands also actively supported the British-Polish alliance. The balance of power in Europe shifted east and west against the middle. And this process has only just begun.