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Post by steppenwolf on Jun 28, 2023 13:13:09 GMT
The pound fell dramatically after the referendum because the Forex traders had conducted an exit poll on the referendum and that said that the result was "Remain". There was a lot of buying of Sterling on that result. When the actual result came in (Leave) they were left with a large amount of Sterling to get shot of and this caused a drop in Sterling, obviously. However, if you look at the longer term valuations it's fairly obvious that the main hit to Sterling came in 2008 when Brown crashed the economy and the banks had to be bailed out. Brexit had no discernible long term effect.Then the Coalition govt in 2010 had to borrow large amounts of money (nearly £800 billion) from the BoE (QE) and drop interest rates to about zero which dwarfed any small effects on confidence from the Brexit vote. The surprising thing is that this didn't really cause inflation. But it often happens that money printing doesn't immediately cause inflation. What seems to have precipitated inflation now is Sunak's unwise spending during Covid (about £400 billion). And the reason why we have a bit more inflation than the EU is that we have printed much more money (proportionately) than the ECB did. But you have to bear in mind that countries like Greece and Italy in the Eurozone suffered very badly because the ECB didn't print much money. The UK came through relatively unscathed - but the day of reckoning has now arrived. As you point out yourself, the cause of the drop in Sterling was the Leave result. All to do with markets reacting badly to it. If it had been a Remain result, the Sterling would not have dropped and instead, would have arguably gone up . So, it is safe to say that it was the vote to leave that crashed the Sterling. Still, it should have been temporary. But, instead, the Pound has not recovered 7 years after the vote. And this is a lot to do, if not all to do, with Boris Johnson's version of Brexit itself and the way he handled his own version of Brexit. The Brexit years should not be conflated with the years 2008 - 2012. They are simple two separate beasts. The pound recovered in the intervening years to close in 2015 at 0.74 euros. But in 2016, referendum year, the pound dropped to 0.85 euros; in 2019 before Covid and Ukraine, it was still 0.85 euros; then in 2022, it closed at 0.89 to the euro. So, if what you are saying that Brexit had no discernible long term effects were true; then why and how is it that in 2019, before Covid and Ukraine, the pound was till at 0.85 to the euro when, logically, it should have at least gone back up to the pre-referendum 2015 rate of 0.74? You don't actually know anything about the subject, gnome. As usual. You're confusing the "market" with the Forex traders. The Forex traders seek to make a very short term investments. And everyone knew that a vote to Leave would hit Sterling. It's the old thing "uncertainty". The market (FTSE 100) however went up. The foreign exchange traders just want to make a quick profit from changes - the market looks at long term prospects. And the judgement of the market was that it was good for the economy. You're trying to equate the strength of Sterling to the strength of our economy and there is no such correlation. China, for example, deliberately holds its currency down to make its exports cheaper. Germany - which is more to the point - has benefitted for decades by being a member of the euro because it is trading with a currency that is up to 20% lower than the Deutschmark would be. Trump has accused them of "dumping". But even so the exchange rate history of Sterling against the euro (rather than the dollar) doesn't support you case: link
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Post by steppenwolf on Jun 28, 2023 13:16:42 GMT
As you point out yourself, the cause of the drop in Sterling was the Leave result. All to do with markets reacting badly to it. If it had been a Remain result, the Sterling would not have dropped and instead, would have arguably gone up . So, it is safe to say that it was the vote to leave that crashed the Sterling. Still, it should have been temporary. But, instead, the Pound has not recovered 7 years after the vote. And this is a lot to do, if not all to do, with Boris Johnson's version of Brexit itself and the way he handled his own version of Brexit. The Brexit years should not be conflated with the years 2008 - 2012. They are simple two separate beasts. The pound recovered in the intervening years to close in 2015 at 0.74 euros. But in 2016, referendum year, the pound dropped to 0.85 euros; in 2019 before Covid and Ukraine, it was still 0.85 euros; then in 2022, it closed at 0.89 to the euro. So, if what you are saying that Brexit had no discernible long term effects were true; then why and how is it that in 2019, before Covid and Ukraine, the pound was till at 0.85 to the euro when, logically, it should have at least gone back up to the pre-referendum 2015 rate of 0.74? You don't actually know anything about the subject, gnome. As usual. You're confusing the "market" with the Forex traders. The Forex traders seek to make a very short term investments. And everyone knew that a vote to Leave would hit Sterling. It's the old thing "uncertainty". The market (FTSE 100) however went up. The foreign exchange traders just want to make a quick profit from changes - the market looks at long term prospects. And the judgement of the market was that it was good for the economy. You're trying to equate the strength of Sterling to the strength of our economy and there is no such correlation. China, for example, deliberately holds its currency down to make its exports cheaper. Germany - which is more to the point - has benefitted for decades by being a member of the euro because it is trading with a currency that is up to 20% lower than the Deutschmark would be. Trump has accused them of "dumping". But even so the exchange rate history of Sterling against the euro (rather than the dollar) doesn't support you case: linkThe Brexit referendum is barely noticeable on the graph. But the 2008 credit crunch is.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2023 17:20:34 GMT
You don't actually know anything about the subject, gnome. As usual. You're confusing the "market" with the Forex traders. The Forex traders seek to make a very short term investments. And everyone knew that a vote to Leave would hit Sterling. It's the old thing "uncertainty". The market (FTSE 100) however went up. The foreign exchange traders just want to make a quick profit from changes - the market looks at long term prospects. And the judgement of the market was that it was good for the economy. You're trying to equate the strength of Sterling to the strength of our economy and there is no such correlation. China, for example, deliberately holds its currency down to make its exports cheaper. Germany - which is more to the point - has benefitted for decades by being a member of the euro because it is trading with a currency that is up to 20% lower than the Deutschmark would be. Trump has accused them of "dumping". But even so the exchange rate history of Sterling against the euro (rather than the dollar) doesn't support you case: linkThe Brexit referendum is barely noticeable on the graph. But the 2008 credit crunch is. ^ Rank amateur. Doesn't know the difference between stock market and currency market. Thinks that FTSE100 is a currency market. And what is this nonsense that there's no correlation between the purchasing power of sterling and the UK economy? If you, Einstein, were to purchase a brain for yourself from the EU worth €10 and the forex rate was €1 for every £1, your cost would be £10. If the pound was stronger than the euro and the rate was, say, €1.25 for every £1; then your cost would only £8.00. But if the exchange rate was €0.75 for every £1; then your cost in pounds would be £13.33. Now, apply the same logic to the our imports from the EU and see if there's no correlation with our trade balance and the whole economy.
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Post by steppenwolf on Jun 29, 2023 6:03:17 GMT
There's no point in misquoting me, gnome, when my post is there for anybody to read. I did not say that "there's no correlation between the purchasing power of sterling and the UK economy". I said that there's no correlation between the strength of Sterling and the strength of our economy. And it's you who's confusing the currency market and the stock market. Can you even read? As I've shown the graphs of currency exchange rate don't even back up your claims. I spent decades travelling back and to to Europe and I know that the current rate of Sterling against the euro is pretty much in line with the long term average.
You seem to know nothing about this subject, but it seems to me that most of the people who want to be in the EU have no understanding of either economics and what the EU is.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2023 6:23:52 GMT
There's no point in misquoting me, gnome, when my post is there for anybody to read. I did not say that "there's no correlation between the purchasing power of sterling and the UK economy". I said that there's no correlation between the strength of Sterling and the strength of our economy. And it's you who's confusing the currency market and the stock market. Can you even read? As I've shown the graphs of currency exchange rate don't even back up your claims. I spent decades travelling back and to to Europe and I know that the current rate of Sterling against the euro is pretty much in line with the long term average. You seem to know nothing about this subject, but it seems to me that most of the people who want to be in the EU have no understanding of either economics and what the EU is. Well, yeah!? You did say there's no correlation between the strength of the sterling (or its purchasing power) and the strength of the economy. I just rephrased it in my response. So. What in the world is that nonsense all about??? Obviously, your decades travelling to and from Europe never taught you anything about currencies and currency valuation. Don't try to lecture people on currencies and economics. You don't even know the difference between a stock market and a currency market.
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Post by Pacifico on Jun 29, 2023 6:47:19 GMT
There's no point in misquoting me, gnome, when my post is there for anybody to read. I did not say that "there's no correlation between the purchasing power of sterling and the UK economy". I said that there's no correlation between the strength of Sterling and the strength of our economy. And it's you who's confusing the currency market and the stock market. Can you even read? As I've shown the graphs of currency exchange rate don't even back up your claims. I spent decades travelling back and to to Europe and I know that the current rate of Sterling against the euro is pretty much in line with the long term average. You seem to know nothing about this subject, but it seems to me that most of the people who want to be in the EU have no understanding of either economics and what the EU is. That certainly seems to apply on this forum..
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2023 9:01:15 GMT
www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/26/post-brexit-import-checks-risk-further-pushing-up-food-prices-industry-groupPost-Brexit import checks risk further pushing up food prices – industry group
Traders will not be able to absorb estimated £10m extra cost on goods entering from EU, warns Fresh Produce Consortium The UK’s post-Brexit border strategy risks further pushing up food prices, according representatives of Britain’s fresh produce industry. Traders in the food supply chain are warning they will not be able to absorb the extra cost of charges levied for import checks on goods entering the country from the EU and the rest of the world, due to be introduced in the new year. Estimated additional annual costs of more than £10m stemming from import charges would have to be passed on to consumers, fuelling food inflation just as prices are thought to have peaked. The Fresh Produce Consortium (FPC), an industry body that claims to speak for 70% of the UK’s fresh produce supply chain – including businesses that produce, package, move and sell fresh fruit, vegetables, cut flowers and plants – has written to ministers to share its members’ concerns about the UK’s post-Brexit border strategy. Unexpected increases to delivery times are particularly problematic for perishable items and could have a big impact, the FPC said, as the UK imports about two-thirds of the fruit and vegetables eaten by British households. The FPC’s warning of the impact of the new border proposals on food imports was sent in response to the government’s consultation with industry on its new border strategy, known as the target operating model (TOM). Among the proposals made in the draft strategy issued by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Cabinet Office is the introduction of a charge of up to £43 for each consignment from January 2023. The FPC estimates that lorries carry on average 10 consignments, while 1.2m consignments of fresh produce enter the UK each year. As a result, it estimates that the fresh produce industry could face up to £11m in extra costs each year, just as a result of the introduction of a £43 charge on each consignment arriving in the country. Businesses that are struggling to keep their spending under control at a time of elevated inflation will have no option other than passing on the new import costs, said Nigel Jenney, the FPC chief executive. The UK sources fresh produce from about 100 countries, but the majority of imports enter the country from the EU, even if they have not been produced there.
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Post by steppenwolf on Jun 29, 2023 13:23:44 GMT
Who cares what the Guardian says. Now we've left the EU (and the Customs Union) we can now buy food - or anything else - from wherever we want in the world. If the EU want to make trade difficult we can buy elsewhere. That's the whole point dumbo.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2023 13:50:54 GMT
It's not The Guardian saying it. It's a consortium called Fresh Produce Consortium. The Guardian is just reporting it.
Indeed, we can buy food, commodities from anywhere in the world -- that's always been the case. The question is, do we want to buy food and commodities from anywhere in the world.
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Post by Pacifico on Jun 29, 2023 15:53:53 GMT
It's not The Guardian saying it. It's a consortium called Fresh Produce Consortium. The Guardian is just reporting it. Indeed, we can buy food, commodities from anywhere in the world -- that's always been the case. The question is, do we want to buy food and commodities from anywhere in the world. Why wouldn't we?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2023 17:42:26 GMT
It's not The Guardian saying it. It's a consortium called Fresh Produce Consortium. The Guardian is just reporting it. Indeed, we can buy food, commodities from anywhere in the world -- that's always been the case. The question is, do we want to buy food and commodities from anywhere in the world. Why wouldn't we? Why even ask such a question?
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Post by Pacifico on Jun 30, 2023 6:49:09 GMT
Why wouldn't we? Why even ask such a question? Oh it's quite simple, I'm looking for an answer - it is supposed to be a discussion forum after all. Why wouldn't you want to buy Lamb from New Zealand, Pineapples from Costa Rica, Bananas from Columbia, Asparagus from Kenya etc etc.. What do you gain?
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Post by steppenwolf on Jun 30, 2023 7:30:30 GMT
Indeed, we can buy food, commodities from anywhere in the world -- that's always been the case. More ignorance. You're obviously unaware that whilst in the EU we were in the Customs Union which raises tariff barriers against trade with non-EU members. Buying food - or anything - from the Commonwealth became very expensive. Not anymore.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2023 10:16:17 GMT
Why even ask such a question? Oh it's quite simple, I'm looking for an answer - it is supposed to be a discussion forum after all. Why wouldn't you want to buy Lamb from New Zealand, Pineapples from Costa Rica, Bananas from Columbia, Asparagus from Kenya etc etc.. What do you gain? Indeed. We can buy from just about anywhere so why wouldn't you want to buy pineapples from the Philippines or Indonesia instead of Costa Rica?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2023 10:23:48 GMT
Indeed, we can buy food, commodities from anywhere in the world -- that's always been the case. More ignorance. You're obviously unaware that whilst in the EU we were in the Customs Union which raises tariff barriers against trade with non-EU members. Buying food - or anything - from the Commonwealth became very expensive. Not anymore. Buying from the Commonwealth became very expensive. So we could buy from the Commonwealth. Expensive, but we could. Or we couldn't?
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