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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2023 13:29:01 GMT
Extra 0.08%. Yay! £1.8B boost. Yay! Thank God for small mercies and listen to this -- Brexit Kemi said that those estimates were probably too low. But wait; now, it's turned out that Brexit Kemi's Brexit trade department may have over estimated the figures.  Her economists apparently used a method that throws out higher GDP figures. A method that is not comparable to the one used for estimating trade figures with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Effing, gaslighting Brexit fundamentalists!!! Gaslighters, the whole lot!   Excerpts from: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-asia-trade-deal-cptpp-b2313359.htmlPredicted 0.08% boost from UK-Asia trade deal could be overestimate
The government’s prediction that its Brexit trade deal with Asia-Pacific countries will grow the economy by 0.08 per cent may be an overestimate, it has emerged.
Officials working on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal changed their usual approach to calculating the GDP figure and instead used a new model that “generates larger estimated GDP impacts”, according to the government’s own documentation.
Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch last week responded to mockery of the low figure, which amounts to a £1.8bn economic boost, by saying her department's estimate was probably too low and ignored some benefits. But her department’s own small print suggests the number might have been even smaller had the previous model for calculations been used.
Brexiteer government ministers have been keen to talk up the benefits of doing trade deals outside the EU – but have been left frustrated by their own forecasts which show limited economic upsides from the new free trade agreements.
Speaking last week, Ms Badenoch argued that CPTPP would bring “significant economic growth if we use it properly”. However, she admitted she did not have hard numbers to back this up. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she said of the 0.08 per cent figure.
A technical document, published by the Department for International Trade, states that officials could not employ their usual approach to calculating the GDP benefits of a deal, known as a “Melitz-style model”, because there were too many unknown variables.
Instead, the department used a so-called “Armington-style” model to get the number for CPTPP, which the document notes tend to produce higher GDP figures “for a given free trade agreement”. The model also produces results that are “not directly comparable” to the previous estimates for deals with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, the document states.
The Armington model is itself not unusual, and is “routinely used by trade modellers and academics”. However, the change in methodology has raised eyebrows given the political focus on the small benefits of such trade deals.
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Post by jonksy on Apr 13, 2023 14:34:30 GMT
Extra 0.08%. Yay! £1.8B boost. Yay! Thank God for small mercies and listen to this -- Brexit Kemi said that those estimates were probably too low. But wait; now, it's turned out that Brexit Kemi's Brexit trade department may have over estimated the figures. Her economists apparently used a method that throws out higher GDP figures. A method that is not comparable to the one used for estimating trade figures with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Effing, gaslighting Brexit fundamentalists!!! Gaslighters, the whole lot! Excerpts from: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-asia-trade-deal-cptpp-b2313359.htmlPredicted 0.08% boost from UK-Asia trade deal could be overestimate
The government’s prediction that its Brexit trade deal with Asia-Pacific countries will grow the economy by 0.08 per cent may be an overestimate, it has emerged.
Officials working on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal changed their usual approach to calculating the GDP figure and instead used a new model that “generates larger estimated GDP impacts”, according to the government’s own documentation.
Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch last week responded to mockery of the low figure, which amounts to a £1.8bn economic boost, by saying her department's estimate was probably too low and ignored some benefits. But her department’s own small print suggests the number might have been even smaller had the previous model for calculations been used.
Brexiteer government ministers have been keen to talk up the benefits of doing trade deals outside the EU – but have been left frustrated by their own forecasts which show limited economic upsides from the new free trade agreements.
Speaking last week, Ms Badenoch argued that CPTPP would bring “significant economic growth if we use it properly”. However, she admitted she did not have hard numbers to back this up. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she said of the 0.08 per cent figure.
A technical document, published by the Department for International Trade, states that officials could not employ their usual approach to calculating the GDP benefits of a deal, known as a “Melitz-style model”, because there were too many unknown variables.
Instead, the department used a so-called “Armington-style” model to get the number for CPTPP, which the document notes tend to produce higher GDP figures “for a given free trade agreement”. The model also produces results that are “not directly comparable” to the previous estimates for deals with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, the document states.
The Armington model is itself not unusual, and is “routinely used by trade modellers and academics”. However, the change in methodology has raised eyebrows given the political focus on the small benefits of such trade deals.
Insomnia personified... |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2023 16:12:44 GMT
Extra 0.08%. Yay! £1.8B boost. Yay! Thank God for small mercies and listen to this -- Brexit Kemi said that those estimates were probably too low. But wait; now, it's turned out that Brexit Kemi's Brexit trade department may have over estimated the figures. Her economists apparently used a method that throws out higher GDP figures. A method that is not comparable to the one used for estimating trade figures with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Effing, gaslighting Brexit fundamentalists!!! Gaslighters, the whole lot! Excerpts from: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-asia-trade-deal-cptpp-b2313359.htmlPredicted 0.08% boost from UK-Asia trade deal could be overestimate
The government’s prediction that its Brexit trade deal with Asia-Pacific countries will grow the economy by 0.08 per cent may be an overestimate, it has emerged.
Officials working on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) deal changed their usual approach to calculating the GDP figure and instead used a new model that “generates larger estimated GDP impacts”, according to the government’s own documentation.
Trade secretary Kemi Badenoch last week responded to mockery of the low figure, which amounts to a £1.8bn economic boost, by saying her department's estimate was probably too low and ignored some benefits. But her department’s own small print suggests the number might have been even smaller had the previous model for calculations been used.
Brexiteer government ministers have been keen to talk up the benefits of doing trade deals outside the EU – but have been left frustrated by their own forecasts which show limited economic upsides from the new free trade agreements.
Speaking last week, Ms Badenoch argued that CPTPP would bring “significant economic growth if we use it properly”. However, she admitted she did not have hard numbers to back this up. “I can’t stand this estimate, even though it came from my department,” she said of the 0.08 per cent figure.
A technical document, published by the Department for International Trade, states that officials could not employ their usual approach to calculating the GDP benefits of a deal, known as a “Melitz-style model”, because there were too many unknown variables.
Instead, the department used a so-called “Armington-style” model to get the number for CPTPP, which the document notes tend to produce higher GDP figures “for a given free trade agreement”. The model also produces results that are “not directly comparable” to the previous estimates for deals with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand, the document states.
The Armington model is itself not unusual, and is “routinely used by trade modellers and academics”. However, the change in methodology has raised eyebrows given the political focus on the small benefits of such trade deals.
Insomnia personified... ^ Irrelevant. |
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Post by jonksy on Apr 13, 2023 16:20:35 GMT
I see you haven't got the balls to post that UK inflation is down to 5% Ganamie. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2023 17:20:19 GMT
I see you haven't got the balls to post that UK inflation is down to 5% Ganamie. ^ Irrelevant. |
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Post by jonksy on Apr 13, 2023 18:17:44 GMT
I see you haven't got the balls to post that UK inflation is down to 5% Ganamie. ^ Irrelevant. Yes you are Ganamie. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2023 19:45:17 GMT
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Post by Red Rackham on Apr 14, 2023 7:56:46 GMT
This from Aug last year - 'From Europe’s powerhouse to its weak link: Germany’s economy stutters'. www.ft.com/content/2298fb20-8a42-4109-bb7d-487c06dc90b8And from Feb this year: 'Germany to drag on European growth this decade'. www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-drag-european-growth-this-decade-scope-ratings-agency-2023-02-06/And two days ago the IMF said it expects German gross domestic product to shrink by 0.1% in 2023, entering a recession. Brussels warns of EU recession as German output slides.
A steep drop in German output will help drag the EU into recession this winter, as higher inflation and the Ukraine war take a heavy toll on the bloc’s economy, the European Commission has predicted. Output across the union will contract in the current quarter and the first three months of 2023, with Germany suffering one of the biggest falls in activity as surging energy costs curtail household spending power and force factories to curb production. www.ft.com/content/dbef6a09-a688-42d5-a640-cea055bccb9bThank heavens for Brexit, thank heavens we're out of it. |
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Post by jonksy on Apr 14, 2023 9:11:05 GMT
This from Aug last year - 'From Europe’s powerhouse to its weak link: Germany’s economy stutters'. www.ft.com/content/2298fb20-8a42-4109-bb7d-487c06dc90b8And from Feb this year: 'Germany to drag on European growth this decade'. www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-drag-european-growth-this-decade-scope-ratings-agency-2023-02-06/And two days ago the IMF said it expects German gross domestic product to shrink by 0.1% in 2023, entering a recession. Brussels warns of EU recession as German output slides.
A steep drop in German output will help drag the EU into recession this winter, as higher inflation and the Ukraine war take a heavy toll on the bloc’s economy, the European Commission has predicted. Output across the union will contract in the current quarter and the first three months of 2023, with Germany suffering one of the biggest falls in activity as surging energy costs curtail household spending power and force factories to curb production. www.ft.com/content/dbef6a09-a688-42d5-a640-cea055bccb9bThank heavens for Brexit, thank heavens we're out of it. BMW, Mercedes, VAG, Bosch and siemens are some of the major players in Germany and they have all been forced into lower production by the cost of energy in Germany |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2023 9:13:02 GMT
This from Aug last year - 'From Europe’s powerhouse to its weak link: Germany’s economy stutters'. www.ft.com/content/2298fb20-8a42-4109-bb7d-487c06dc90b8And from Feb this year: 'Germany to drag on European growth this decade'. www.reuters.com/markets/europe/germany-drag-european-growth-this-decade-scope-ratings-agency-2023-02-06/And two days ago the IMF said it expects German gross domestic product to shrink by 0.1% in 2023, entering a recession. Brussels warns of EU recession as German output slides.
A steep drop in German output will help drag the EU into recession this winter, as higher inflation and the Ukraine war take a heavy toll on the bloc’s economy, the European Commission has predicted. Output across the union will contract in the current quarter and the first three months of 2023, with Germany suffering one of the biggest falls in activity as surging energy costs curtail household spending power and force factories to curb production. www.ft.com/content/dbef6a09-a688-42d5-a640-cea055bccb9bThank heavens for Brexit, thank heavens we're out of it. ^ Irrelevant. This thread is about the estimated 0.08% boost to the UK economy from the CPTPP agreement vis a vis the value of our trade with the European Union. This is not about Germany's economic performance. And your schadenfreude is a delusion. Expressing it is an act of self-delusion.
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Post by Red Rackham on Apr 14, 2023 9:38:02 GMT
BMW, Mercedes, VAG, Bosch and siemens are some of the major players in Germany and they have all been forced into lower production by the cost of energy in Germany Quite so Jonksy, and the German giant that is BASF, the largest chemical company in the world, is relocating from Germany to China. Dr Martin Brudermüller CEO of BASF said the move was due to the cost of energy in Europe. (So BASF is moving to a country with a coal based economy) |
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Post by Red Rackham on Apr 14, 2023 9:40:21 GMT
Irrelevant. This thread is about the estimated 0.08% boost to the UK economy from the CPTPP agreement vis a vis the value of our trade with the European Union. This is not about Germany's economic performance. And your schadenfreude is a delusion. Expressing it is an act of self-delusion. LOL, well if nothing else, at least you bring humour to the forum. |
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Post by jonksy on Apr 14, 2023 9:42:59 GMT
BMW, Mercedes, VAG, Bosch and siemens are some of the major players in Germany and they have all been forced into lower production by the cost of energy in Germany Quite so Jonksy, and the German giant that is BASF, the largest chemical company in the world, is relocating from Germany to China. Dr Martin Brudermüller CEO of BASF said the move was due to the cost of energy in Europe. (So BASF is moving to a country with a coal based economy) Yes I forgot about the huge BASF consortium mate. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 14, 2023 9:53:15 GMT
Irrelevant. This thread is about the estimated 0.08% boost to the UK economy from the CPTPP agreement vis a vis the value of our trade with the European Union. This is not about Germany's economic performance. And your schadenfreude is a delusion. Expressing it is an act of self-delusion. LOL, well if nothing else, at least you bring humour to the forum. OK. That's good to know. Now, can we expect something substantive from you from this moment on? |
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Post by Red Rackham on Apr 14, 2023 10:00:15 GMT
LOL, well if nothing else, at least you bring humour to the forum. OK. That's good to know. Now, can we expect something substantive from you from this moment on? See above.  |
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Her economists apparently used a method that throws out higher GDP figures. A method that is not comparable to the one used for estimating trade figures with the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand.
