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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2023 22:16:08 GMT
What will Conservative MPs do after the May local elections ?
With no sign at all that the Polls are going to narrow, its inevitable that the Tories are heading for disaster at next months local elections.
Latest Poll is by Deltapoll (published 3rd April) LAB 48 - CON 27 - LD 09 - REF 05 - GRN 04
Will the Conservative Party descend into in-fighting, will there be calls for a change in direction, could there be a sharpening of knives to stab Rishi Sunak in the back.
Will more "Red Wall" MPs announce their retirement at the next general election, could some Tory MPs cross the floor of the house.
Panic will surely set in if polling figures are somwhere near correct, and the Tories suffer a humiliating result with the next election getting closer and closer.
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Post by Bentley on Apr 4, 2023 22:20:29 GMT
Let’s see. There’s only a few weeks to go.
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Post by jonksy on Apr 5, 2023 6:10:05 GMT
Let’s see. There’s only a few weeks to go. Who cares local elections are not the real thing.... |
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Post by Pacifico on Apr 5, 2023 6:43:02 GMT
Will the Conservative Party descend into in-fighting, will there be calls for a change in direction, could there be a sharpening of knives to stab Rishi Sunak in the back. Oh I do hope so. Maybe they could try being actual conservatives for once and not just a New Labour tribute act.. |
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Post by Fairsociety on Apr 5, 2023 8:02:56 GMT
I suspect they'll be announcing big favourable policy changes just before the local elections so it will be fresh in voters minds, as for Labour apparently Starmer wont tell us his until the eleventh hour in case the Tories steal them ... LOL
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2023 9:08:02 GMT
Take for example the Redcar constituency, by tradition a Labour area with a history of heavy industry, ship building and steel.
The Tory MP "Jacob Young" won the seat for the Tories in 2019, with a background of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, his majority is just 3,500.
According to the election annalysis and polling website "Electoral Calculous", the Tories currently have a 7% chance of winning this seat at the next general election.
All 59 seats on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council are up for election in May, if you were Jacob Young, and if the Labour Party made sweeping gains, taking the council from No Overal Control to Labour Gain, what would you do. ?
There are many examples of Redcar up and down the country - what will MPs in vulnerable seats do ?, especially Red Wall seats and in seats held by members of the Northern Research Group.
Many say there is already a civil war going on just below the surface in the Tory Party, between traditional Conservatives and Populists, is it beyond doubt that there could even be a split. ?
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Post by Toreador on Apr 5, 2023 9:50:32 GMT
Take for example the Redcar constituency, by tradition a Labour area with a history of heavy industry, ship building and steel. The Tory MP "Jacob Young" won the seat for the Tories in 2019, with a background of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, his majority is just 3,500. According to the election annalysis and polling website "Electoral Calculous", the Tories currently have a 7% chance of winning this seat at the next general election. All 59 seats on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council are up for election in May, if you were Jacob Young, and if the Labour Party made sweeping gains, taking the council from No Overal Control to Labour Gain, what would you do. ? There are many examples of Redcar up and down the country - what will MPs in vulnerable seats do ?, especially Red Wall seats and in seats held by members of the Northern Research Group. Many say there is already a civil war going on just below the surface in the Tory Party, between traditional Conservatives and Populists, is it beyond doubt that there could even be a split. ? If Tory candidates drop out it will mean Reform UK will take more votes in those seats. Perhaps not enough to win a substantial number of seats but enough to act as a barometer for the next election, by which time Labour will have been found out for what they are. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2023 19:18:40 GMT
With the local elections just four weeks away, there is little point now in anyone counting their chickens before they are hatched. Let's just argue for what we believe in between now and then and await the results, which we can all dissect and attempt to divine what they mean when the time comes.
Local elections can demonstrate trends and if Labour do very well and the Tories very badly it would tend to back up what we are being told by opinion polling, which, if that happens, should be ignored at our peril.
However there are several provisos that need to be applied to local elections. For one thing the turn out can be much lower which can distort the outcome. The other obvious fact is that because they are local elections, local issues could well play a prominent part, which could result in trends being bucked.
Here in Plymouth there is widespread furore over the scandalous decision by the Tory-led council to cut down trees in the dead of night after a consultation which revealed most people opposed their removal. Labour has attempted to make political capital out of this although they had signed off on the policy too when they were in charge, and recently most of them abstained when they had the opportunity to stop it by voting against. So they are just being opportunist hypocrites.
Labour will be trying to hang this around the Tory necks and capitalise on it, but there will be those of us on the doorstep reminding people that both main parties are up to their necks in it. This issue right now has the potential to shift the overall trends in unpredictable directions based entirely on a local issue. There will undoubtedly be other local issues in other areas of the country with similar potential
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2023 19:24:20 GMT
Take for example the Redcar constituency, by tradition a Labour area with a history of heavy industry, ship building and steel. The Tory MP "Jacob Young" won the seat for the Tories in 2019, with a background of Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn, his majority is just 3,500. According to the election annalysis and polling website "Electoral Calculous", the Tories currently have a 7% chance of winning this seat at the next general election. All 59 seats on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council are up for election in May, if you were Jacob Young, and if the Labour Party made sweeping gains, taking the council from No Overal Control to Labour Gain, what would you do. ? There are many examples of Redcar up and down the country - what will MPs in vulnerable seats do ?, especially Red Wall seats and in seats held by members of the Northern Research Group. Many say there is already a civil war going on just below the surface in the Tory Party, between traditional Conservatives and Populists, is it beyond doubt that there could even be a split. ? If Tory candidates drop out it will mean Reform UK will take more votes in those seats. Perhaps not enough to win a substantial number of seats but enough to act as a barometer for the next election, by which time Labour will have been found out for what they are. Reform risks doing an SDP to the Tories. Failing to win anything much themselves but taking enough votes from the Tories to gift massive gains to Labour. Under FPTP, this is their most likely achievement if anything. Starmer will be praying that Reform polls well. Because his party is likely to be the main beneficiary. |
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Post by Toreador on Apr 5, 2023 20:08:34 GMT
If Tory candidates drop out it will mean Reform UK will take more votes in those seats. Perhaps not enough to win a substantial number of seats but enough to act as a barometer for the next election, by which time Labour will have been found out for what they are. Reform risks doing an SDP to the Tories. Failing to win anything much themselves but taking enough votes from the Tories to gift massive gains to Labour. Under FPTP, this is their most likely achievement if anything. Starmer will be praying that Reform polls well. Because his party is likely to be the main beneficiary. The Reform Party will field a candidate against every Tory and if Nigel resurrects himself and hits te trail he'll affect Labour. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2023 20:54:06 GMT
Reform risks doing an SDP to the Tories. Failing to win anything much themselves but taking enough votes from the Tories to gift massive gains to Labour. Under FPTP, this is their most likely achievement if anything. Starmer will be praying that Reform polls well. Because his party is likely to be the main beneficiary. The Reform Party will field a candidate against every Tory and if Nigel resurrects himself and hits te trail he'll affect Labour. I very much doubt that a right wing populist tribute act like Reform will do as much damage to Labour as it will the Tories. And any appeal Farage might have to the left is greatly overstated. Farage is something of a popular hero to working class, sun reading Tories, but these are still Tory supporters he will mostly be appealing to, even if largely the working class ones. If anyone can damage Labour now that it has again become utterly Blairite, it will be forces of the left, not the right, eg the Greens, possibly the Lib Dems, or left wing contenders. Reform will mostly steal votes from the Tories. The degree of their success will largely be a measure of how much damage they do to the Tories. Which of course will help Labour. So the paradox is this. The more successful Reform is, the better Labour will do. It would not surprise me if Reform failed to win any seats anywhere. If they do it will be a mere handful. Damaging the Tories is all they can really hope to do but that won't help them. It will just help Labour. In the long run the only good they can hope to do to the political right, is to so threaten the Tories that the Tories themselves lurch right to head them off. But that too could also potentially play into Labour's hands, because without an SDP to divide the opposition and with the much greater willingness today to indulge in tactical voting, the Tories lurching to the right will probably lose them more voters than it gains. |
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Post by Pacifico on Apr 5, 2023 21:11:25 GMT
If Tory candidates drop out it will mean Reform UK will take more votes in those seats. Perhaps not enough to win a substantial number of seats but enough to act as a barometer for the next election, by which time Labour will have been found out for what they are. Reform risks doing an SDP to the Tories. Failing to win anything much themselves but taking enough votes from the Tories to gift massive gains to Labour. Under FPTP, this is their most likely achievement if anything. Starmer will be praying that Reform polls well. Because his party is likely to be the main beneficiary.But Labour thought that before when UKIP decimated the Tory vote in 2014 - all that happened though was at the subsequent General Election the Tories changed tack to follow UKIP policy and thus won a majority. |
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Post by sheepy on Apr 6, 2023 6:43:32 GMT
Reform risks doing an SDP to the Tories. Failing to win anything much themselves but taking enough votes from the Tories to gift massive gains to Labour. Under FPTP, this is their most likely achievement if anything. Starmer will be praying that Reform polls well. Because his party is likely to be the main beneficiary.But Labour thought that before when UKIP decimated the Tory vote in 2014 - all that happened though was at the subsequent General Election the Tories changed tack to follow UKIP policy and thus won a majority. Except none of them have a policy they can cheat with this time, as they haven't been fed any. So they have to try and make up their own which isn't going so well.They have tried all the old fallback policies which have had little or no effect. |
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Post by borchester on Apr 6, 2023 7:54:39 GMT
What will Conservative MPs do after the May local elections ? With no sign at all that the Polls are going to narrow, its inevitable that the Tories are heading for disaster at next months local elections. Latest Poll is by Deltapoll (published 3rd April) LAB 48 - CON 27 - LD 09 - REF 05 - GRN 04 Will the Conservative Party descend into in-fighting, will there be calls for a change in direction, could there be a sharpening of knives to stab Rishi Sunak in the back. Will more "Red Wall" MPs announce their retirement at the next general election, could some Tory MPs cross the floor of the house. Panic will surely set in if polling figures are somwhere near correct, and the Tories suffer a humiliating result with the next election getting closer and closer. I imagine the Conservative MPs will say well, it is only the local elections and to quote Harold Wilson, if a week is a long time in politics, then the 21 months until the important ones in January 2025 is pretty much forever. |
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Post by vlk on Apr 6, 2023 10:38:29 GMT
It's unfortunate that too many people regard local elections rather as a referendum on the national government than a vote concerning local issues.
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