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Post by Vinny on Feb 16, 2023 13:23:31 GMT
The pound was overvalued and would have fallen anyway.
The biggest impact on households has been from the economic legacy of the Covid crisis, and also the energy crisis.
We simply do not produce enough electricity and as a result, that which we do produce is sold at a premium.
We do not produce enough gas either, and as a result, the cost of that has gone up.
Until we have enough infrastructure to divest from fossil fuels, we're still dependent on them and yet government thought it could magically reduce our emissions by buying fossil fuels from abroad and reducing electrical production.
Now they realise we need at least one new coal mine.
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Post by Steve on Feb 16, 2023 13:23:52 GMT
Now look at the DAX and use a common currency reference FTSE doesn't look so good in comparison does it |
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Post by Vinny on Feb 16, 2023 13:27:42 GMT
Both are growing, where's the problem?  ?? |
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Post by Steve on Feb 16, 2023 17:59:43 GMT
Both are growing, where's the problem? The point is in objective measures, the UK FTSE has well outperformed the DAX (and the Dow etc etc). Further evidence of how much Brexit has led us to be worse off than we would have been |
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Post by Vinny on Feb 16, 2023 21:00:55 GMT
Difficult to say how things would have been had we stayed.
Things were bad as it was.
Massive unemployment, big cost of living crisis, food banks, de-industrialisation, and a big money outflow away from our country.
People voted leave for good reasons.
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Post by Steve on Feb 16, 2023 22:29:59 GMT
We were booming until the referendum bill passed parliament
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Post by Vinny on Feb 17, 2023 0:00:59 GMT
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Post by steppenwolf on Feb 17, 2023 7:44:07 GMT
Gnome hasn't got a clue what he's talking about. He can't even get the words right - he talks about hypotheses when he means theories for example, which are a completely different thing. Actually hypotheses are accurate in his case, in that they're simply assumptions that are made for the sake of an argument, but I don't think he/she means that. On the GFC, first of all there wasn't a Global Financial Crisis. Many countries never had a financial crisis, and, of the countries that DID have problems, there were often very different reasons for the financial problems. For example the UK's (and USA's) financial crises were caused by governments removing controls on credit in order to stimulate the economy. When people couldn't repay their loans the banks were in trouble - which was entirely predictable, but not to Brown apparently. In the case of the EU the financial problems were entirely different - it was a euro crisis. It was a problem caused by having the same borrowing rate for countries with entirely different economies. For example the natural base rate for Greece (and Italy) was much higher than for Germany. So the (again inevitable) problem eventually meant that the governments got into financial trouble. In the case of Greece it was terminal and there is absolutely NO chance that Greece will ever recover and unemployment has soared and people have lost their pensions and savings - and several other countries are still in trouble. If we had been in the Eurozone we would also be a basket case. But because we had our own currency we simply got the BoE to print about £375 billion and we managed to get through our problems with scarcely any rise in unemployment. We didn't even get much inflation surprisingly. Which approach does Gnome prefer? Amusingly the EU has belatedly printed vast amounts of QE but it was too late - the damage had been done. As for the nonsense about Brexit causing financial problems of one kind or another it's VERY difficult to separate the effects of Brexit from the MUCH larger effects of the pandemic and the measures taken to cope with it. So, you want me to say "theories" rather than "hypotheses" Fine. "Theories", then. When you say "global" it does not have to include every single country on the planet. And when a crisis is about banking and finance -- no matter what the root cause is -- it is called a financial crisis. Still, I won't stop you from presenting us with your own analyses of what happened. Paris stock market is now larger than London's in terms of valuation. If you believe it happened because the global pandemic and the Ukraine war somehow skipped Paris, then, you really are hopeless,. You can't just ignore the difference between the words theory and hypothesis. The thing about theories is that they demand evidence - you can make any old hypothesis you like without providing any evidence for it at all. You have no evidence that Brexit caused all the problems that you claim and most of our current problems are also afflicting the EU - and many other countries. If you have no evidence your theory is worthless. The "GFC" as you call it was very far from global and basically affected only countries that a) over-borrowed or b) the Eurozone which has attempted to impose a single currency on disparate nations without fiscal union. The EU's financial problems are intractable and very difficult to solve. You can't just lump a whole lot of different problems together and call them the GFC. That's financially illiterate. As for the stock market the dire predictions of Remainers like you - that we'd lose most of our bankers - have not come to pass. Everything looks fine and the fact that the FTSE has hit 8000 is amazing - I never saw that coming. This indicates long term confidence in the economy. And if the financial sector has shrunk slightly (which is dubious anyway) it was probably overdue. We've been too reliant on our financial sector for decades. Considering how deliberately difficult the EU has been I'd say Brexit has worked out remarkably well. And remember that the reason that we got a "less than ideal" agreement with the EU is because our remainer MPs forced the "Surrender bill" on us whereby Parliament prevented us from leaving without a deal. Can you imagine any more stupid negotiating strategy with a trading partner (who doesn't want us to leave) than telling them that we won't leave without a deal? Completely crazy. |
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Post by oracle75 on Feb 17, 2023 8:26:29 GMT
The FTSE is not a measure of the UK economy.
It is merely another marketplace for anyone to buy or sell investment in any company which joins it.
The companies could be anywhere in the world as can be the investors.
You could live in Thailand and trade stocks and shares in Australia.
The only benefit to the UK is the charges paid in the transactions.
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Post by Vinny on Feb 17, 2023 8:33:00 GMT
Meanwhile, at the time of the referendum a lot of people were struggling with a cost of living crisis. Things were shit.
It's not a good measure of the economy to call it a boom when so many people were dependent on foodbanks.
People voted leave.
Now we've succeeded in leaving.
But we need to succeed at ending dependence on food banks. We need to rebuild the most deprived parts of Britain and get unemployment down to as near to nothing as is possible.
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Post by steppenwolf on Feb 17, 2023 12:38:54 GMT
The FTSE is not a measure of the UK economy.It is merely another marketplace for anyone to buy or sell investment in any company which joins it. The companies could be anywhere in the world as can be the investors. You could live in Thailand and trade stocks and shares in Australia. The only benefit to the UK is the charges paid in the transactions. I'm well aware of that having spent decades playing the markets. The way I look at it is that the FTSE is an indicator of long term confidence (12 to 18 months) whereas the value of currencies is a measure of very short term sentiment. But it's certainly a good sign that the FTSE 100 is above 8000. Unless of course you're a Remainer - when even the good signs are ignored. It was 23 years ago that we broke the 7000 barrier. |
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Post by Steve on Feb 17, 2023 13:28:27 GMT
Rubbish ^ Unemployment was below a million and falling Real wages were increasing GDP was booming The deficit was falling Inflation had been conquered The £ was 20% higher than now Business confidence was positive And then Cameron went for that referendum and then your side won it with cheating and lies Educate yourself with some data tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/indicators the correlations will show you the real impact of Brexit |
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Post by Vinny on Feb 17, 2023 13:36:26 GMT
The links I gave you were correct and as I say, for the majority the situation was shit.
Wages are rising now.
Unemployment is now 3.7% it was 5.30% before the referendum.
GDP 'booming' ? Wasn't for anyone who needed to use a food bank.
Working class disaffection with the situation was very high.
The rich may have been getting richer, but the poorest were getting poorer and voted with their feet - OUT!!!
Inflation can never be truly conquered, it is interlinked into the global economy and as tragic events like the Covid pandemic and war have shown, it can come back with a vengeance, and has.
Inflation is a serious problem all over the world, not just here.
And being a serious problem all over the world, it is a serious problem here. Our economy is not just tied to the EU through trade, but the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and even though I hate to say this, Russia.
We've been through serious crises.
There's a lot of complicated stuff going on which is hurting everyone's economies.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2023 13:59:31 GMT
So, you want me to say "theories" rather than "hypotheses" Fine. "Theories", then. When you say "global" it does not have to include every single country on the planet. And when a crisis is about banking and finance -- no matter what the root cause is -- it is called a financial crisis. Still, I won't stop you from presenting us with your own analyses of what happened. Paris stock market is now larger than London's in terms of valuation. If you believe it happened because the global pandemic and the Ukraine war somehow skipped Paris, then, you really are hopeless,. You can't just ignore the difference between the words theory and hypothesis. The thing about theories is that they demand evidence - you can make any old hypothesis you like without providing any evidence for it at all. You have no evidence that Brexit caused all the problems that you claim and most of our current problems are also afflicting the EU - and many other countries. If you have no evidence your theory is worthless. The "GFC" as you call it was very far from global and basically affected only countries that a) over-borrowed or b) the Eurozone which has attempted to impose a single currency on disparate nations without fiscal union. The EU's financial problems are intractable and very difficult to solve. You can't just lump a whole lot of different problems together and call them the GFC. That's financially illiterate. As for the stock market the dire predictions of Remainers like you - that we'd lose most of our bankers - have not come to pass. Everything looks fine and the fact that the FTSE has hit 8000 is amazing - I never saw that coming. This indicates long term confidence in the economy. And if the financial sector has shrunk slightly (which is dubious anyway) it was probably overdue. We've been too reliant on our financial sector for decades. Considering how deliberately difficult the EU has been I'd say Brexit has worked out remarkably well. And remember that the reason that we got a "less than ideal" agreement with the EU is because our remainer MPs forced the "Surrender bill" on us whereby Parliament prevented us from leaving without a deal. Can you imagine any more stupid negotiating strategy with a trading partner (who doesn't want us to leave) than telling them that we won't leave without a deal? Completely crazy. You can be as pedantic and as wrong as you want but I will not argue the toss over terminologies particularly when the terms I use do not detract from the meaning of my statements. Almost every country was affected by the GFC. Some were affected more than others; some directly and others, indirectly. Now, if you want to insist that the crisis was not global because some were affected less severely and/or "only" indirectly, then fine -- reinvent the wheel, if that makes you feel intelligent. What's financially illiterate is the claim that the financial problems faced by the Eurozone and the EU in '08-'09 were not part of the global financial crisis -- which "coincidentally" occurred during the same, exact period. Whether you think the EU's financial problems are intractable and very difficult to solve is irrelevant. According to a study by Ernst & Young, "more than 7,000 finance jobs have moved from London to the EU as a result of Brexit, according to a report by consultants at EY last year. They said Paris scored highest in terms of attracting jobs from London, totalling 2,800, followed by Frankfurt at about 1,800 and Dublin with 1,200."
The claim that Brexit has worked out well is a laughable Brexit delusion. Has worked out well? -- A BoE study concludes that "the UK has suffered a loss of business investment since the 2016 Brexit referendum worth £29bn, or £1,000 a household." Bloomberg recently determined that Brexit is costing the UK £100B a year. Brexit has worked out well, my ass!  |
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Post by Steve on Feb 17, 2023 14:25:22 GMT
The links I gave you were correct and as I say, for the majority the situation was shit. Wages are rising now. Unemployment is now 3.7% it was 5.30% before the referendum. ' Working class disaffection with the situation was very high. The rich may have been getting richer, but the poorest were getting poorer and voted with their feet - OUT!!! Inflation can never be truly conquered, it is interlinked into the global economy and as tragic events like the Covid pandemic and war have shown, it can come back with a vengeance, and has. Inflation is a serious problem all over the world, not just here. And being a serious problem all over the world, it is a serious problem here. Our economy is not just tied to the EU through trade, but the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and even though I hate to say this, Russia. We've been through serious crises. There's a lot of complicated stuff going on which is hurting everyone's economies. 'Wages are rising now' not in real terms they're not 'Unemployment is now 3.7% it was 5.30% before the referendum.' I doubt it, especially when you look at unemployed numbers:  'GDP 'booming' Wasn't for anyone who needed to use a food bank.' BS, now look at foodbank usage that has doubled since the referendum  etc etc Your pyrrhic victory has harmed the UK, get used to the awkward fact that more and more people are realising that. Best you keep quiet about your stance in public areas. |
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